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Old 11-17-2019, 08:08 PM   #1
Atinat
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Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

I recently jumped into sports betting, mostly on CFB, and got $60 to $245 in two weeks. But this has mostly been with some sporadic bet sizings. So my question is, how often should my standard bet size change, and what percent of my bankroll should I risk each week? The following is my bankroll history, obviously it starts out with no rhyme or reason but calms down a little
$60 deposit
$20 on Purdue +115 vs NW, LSU +180 vs Bama, LSU-Bama u63 (net $49 profit). Obviously this was just a shot in the dark. I had no strategy other than to risk $60 on some lines I liked
$15 on Blues +130 vs Calgary (after those three cashed out). Net $19.50
$10 on Chiefs -6.5 vs Tennessee, Giants -3 vs Jets, Ravens -10.5 vs Cincy, and then those three in a parlay. Net -$20.91
$10 on Vikings +145 vs Dallas. Net $14.50
$5 on Arizona -7 vs Illinois (CBB). Net $4.55. Sized down because of lack of confidence
$10 on Capitals -1.5 vs Coyotes. Net -$10.00
$10 on Western Michigan +105 vs Ohio, Net $10.50
$5 on Browns -3 vs Steelers and over 41 on same game. Net $0. Split what appears to be my standard bet
$10 on SDSU -1 vs Fresno State, net $9.09
$10 on CFB parlay (Wisc -14 vs Neb, UMass +40 vs NW, PSU-IU o55, Florida -7 vs Mizzou), net $110
$10 on UMass +40, Navy +240, Michigan -13.5, Alabama -19. Net $17.27
$10 on Texas +220 vs ISU and Minnesota +125 vs Iowa, net -$20.00
$10 on OU -10.5 vs Baylor and Louisville -4 vs NC State, net -$0.91
$5 on OU +270 (3rd quarter bet), net $13.50
$5 on Detroit +290, Saints -6, Ravens -4.5, Patriots-Eagles o45. Net -$0.90.
So, to reiterate, what should my standard bet size be, is it okay to vary between sports I'm more or less confident about (or should I just not bet lines I'm not confident enough for a full bet on), and when (in terms of bankroll) is it okay to change standard bet size?
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Old 11-18-2019, 03:04 AM   #2
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

If you're a losing bettor it doesn't matter you'll lose the whole bankroll anyway

I have a six figure bankroll and it's not uncommon to turn over the entire bankroll in a weekend if there is a lot of sport on. If you're profitable, you should be turning over the entire bankroll in a day if there are 50 matches or whatever with profitable spots. Obviously the key is to use sensible bankroll management relative to your overall bankroll size, and increase/decrease units accordingly as your bankroll grows or shrinks

If you're a winning bettor at say 3%ish, you can either google half kelly or just stick with something like 1/20th to 1/50th of your current bankoll as a guideline depending what your tolerance for risk of ruin is with 5% of your bankroll per wager as an 'aggressive' strategy if your bankroll is replaceable or 2% of your bankroll per wager as a more 'safe' strategy

It's actually more complex than that, you should size up when your edge is bigger and size down when your edge is smaller (eg I might bet 5% of my bankroll on an 8% edge or 10% on a 25% edge but only 2% of my bankroll on a 2% edge - these examples purely hypothetical, but the kelly criterion stuff goes into the math, just google it if you want to learn)

I assume you're a rec bettor based on your post with no plans to change that, so you should just not bet on stuff you're not confident in - when I was a rec bettor I was beating esports and roughly breaking even in MMA and not profitable in anything else - nowadays those sports are a tiny percentage of my value, but for stuff i'm an expert in (eg, Rugby 7s, a niche sport) where I have a 10%+ roi i'm looking to get down as much as I possibly can, whereas in say NFL where the edges are smaller due to lines being much sharper, so are my bets relative to my bankroll

I'd say if you're looking to grow a bankroll the best advice is to find a fairly niche sport and learn everything you can about it (whether that's CS:GO esports or japanese baseball or rugby union or whatever) - this skillset won't be super useful once you're looking to fire 5 figues because you won't be able to get the action down and you'll have to move back into more mainstream sports, but if you're looking to grow a bankroll the best thing you can do is fine a niche sport where you can get down a few hundred bucks a unit at really high edges or whatever, crush it, and go from there

When your bankroll is literally a couple hundred bucks, it doesn't matter if you're betting WNBL first quarters or finnish soccer or whatever, because you can still get your units down - don't jump straight into trying to beat NFL or NBA or whatever unless you have soft outs with access to off market lines or square alt lines etc (i'm not handicapping when I bet on the NFL myself in the way I do for say Rugby Union/7s where I have a deep understanding of a smaller market) - you should be looking for off market spots against the sharp books on soft books or handicapping a niche market when you have a tiny bankroll and are looking to build

Or if you're betting mostly for entertainment and don't care about improving or running up a bankroll just bet on what you want to bet on for sweats, 5-10 dollar units are fine with your bankroll, and enjoy
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Old 11-18-2019, 11:38 AM   #3
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

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Originally Posted by Atinat View Post
So, to reiterate, what should my standard bet size be, is it okay to vary between sports I'm more or less confident about (or should I just not bet lines I'm not confident enough for a full bet on), and when (in terms of bankroll) is it okay to change standard bet size?
Risk no more than 1% of your roll while trading your equity curve; as the roll increases/decreases, your bet size follows suit.

If you want to split up the bet sizes according to confidence then you can use a 3-star system:

1-Star = 0.25% of Roll
2-Star = 0.50% of Roll
3-Star = 1% of Roll
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Old 11-22-2019, 06:02 AM   #4
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

That system maxing out at 1 percent is way way way too conservative to optimise br growth especially with a 200 dollar bankroll but I mean I have a fairly large br and 3 to 5 percent of br on big edge spots aren't uncommon for me and my biggest downswing is about 32 max bets in like a 30k bet sample pretty sure my bankroll would be less than half of what it is now if I capped out sizing at 1 percent of br.

Obv depends on size of edges like if you have a 1 percent Roi vs 4 or 5 percent or whatever you're gonna experience a ton more variance but obv you need to size up on big edges and down on small edges regardless... But 1 percent of br is way too conservative especially if the bankroll on question is hundreds of dollars not seven figures plus and therefore you can still be betting full units on niche markets with ease and therefore attainable edges are higher
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Old 11-22-2019, 08:04 AM   #5
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

Op,your concern should be finding a good edge across markets in which you can get your bankroll in play on a regular basis e.g chasing steam,props etc

you need to stay as far away as possible of top tier markets unless you are chasing steam on soft outs

the bottom line is no point in focusing on minuntiae when you have the fundamentals wrong.

as a begginer bettor you need huge volume,soft outs/markes and an agressive staking size (0,5 kelly) provided you have a notion of your edge,something that few people focus on but its arguably the biggest point in terms of accelerating your groth as a beginner because you can apply kelly and in a couple years go from 0 to hero

Last edited by MisterRodriguez; 11-22-2019 at 08:14 AM.
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Old 11-22-2019, 09:34 AM   #6
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

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That system maxing out at 1 percent is way way way too conservative to optimise br growth especially with a 200 dollar bankroll…
Preservation of Capital > Appreciation of Capital.

I don’t believe in optimizing BR growth and no one else does either, at least in practice. If you’re not position sizing off of Full Kelly for every bet (and you certainly shouldn’t be) you’re not optimizing BR Growth. Optimization requires certain inputs and we live in a world of probabilities, not certainties which is why The Optimization Game is a dangerous one because just on the other side is disaster.

In general, w/ a caveat, I agree that one should be more aggressive w/ smaller rolls but just because he has a smaller roll, it doesn’t mean he should be betting more of it. He should be more aggressive IF that roll has zero utility to him; can he run it to zero and replenish it easily. If that’s not the case, you can’t compound on zero dollars so keep your Risk of Ruin as close to 0% as possible. Risking no more than 1% of BR is compatible w/ that goal.

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Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
but I mean I have a fairly large br and 3 to 5 percent of br on big edge spots aren't uncommon for me and my biggest downswing is about 32 max bets in like a 30k bet sample pretty sure my bankroll would be less than half of what it is now if I capped out sizing at 1 percent of br.
My advice isn’t meant for more advanced Punters.

I’m pretty sure there is about a 98% chance that the OP isn’t presently operating w/ an edge and thus it would be irresponsible for him to risk > 1% at this time. You can argue he shouldn’t be betting at all w/out an edge but that’s a silly argument since you need to pay Tuition to the Market; it’s kind of a rite of passage

He needs to survive long enough in order to eventually, if ever, reach consistent profitability and build good disciplined habits along the way; money management principles are invariant.

I’m in no position to tell another man about his edge but I can say that edges can be very perishable things and if you’re betting 5% of Account Equity on a regular basis and you don’t pull your Systems or Models circuit breaker on time, then your Equity Curve could be deep under water by the time you recognize a leak.

Even risking 3%, which seems excessive, especially for a larger BR, can be hazardous to your wealth. Let’s say you’re simply Value Betting off the Market, well, Value Betting can have very idiosyncratic return paths and the math of losses works against you. A 25% loss requires a 33% gain just to get back to parity and the more of your account size you risk per bet, the faster you get there.

Everything can be perfect w/ everything but results are always randomly distributed and if you get a series of negative, contiguous losses, it becomes an exponential problem.

I’m speaking from a distance from your methodology and I’m from the school of, “Whatever Works,” so keep on keeping on but I certainly wouldn’t recommend your position sizing approach to others. I like to sleep better, not eat better

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Obv depends on size of edges like if you have a 1 percent Roi vs 4 or 5 percent or whatever you're gonna experience a ton more variance but obv you need to size up on big edges and down on small edges regardless... But 1 percent of br is way too conservative especially if the bankroll on question is hundreds of dollars not seven figures plus and therefore you can still be betting full units on niche markets with ease and therefore attainable edges are higher
As you are aware, your bet size should be based on…

Edge / (Odds-1) ….

… and choose a Kelly Multiple from there but if you aren’t confident in your approximate edge(s) then proportionally staking 1% of your roll will help you survive long enough to possibly attain that subjective probability skill set.

Last edited by GameBred; 11-22-2019 at 09:40 AM.
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Old 11-22-2019, 09:55 AM   #7
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

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as a begginer bettor you need huge volume,soft outs/markes and an agressive staking size (0,5 kelly) provided you have a notion of your edge,something that few people focus on but its arguably the biggest point in terms of accelerating your groth as a beginner because you can apply kelly and in a couple years go from 0 to hero
He needs to do the exact opposite. Unless he’s an extreme outlier, no beginner is going to be profitable. He’s more than likely going to be placing bets w/ the Hold still in the price until he gains the necessary skills and experience over time. Why would he aggressively stake into an unprofitable system; whether it be his G.U.T System or a Model or whatever?

He needs to survive long enough to become profitable and the longer he survives the greater chance he has of being profitable and the more profitable he becomes, the longer he survives. Aggressive staking in the beginning is antithetical to this loop.
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Old 11-22-2019, 10:51 AM   #8
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

Im glad there werent any pseudo bettng intlectuals back in the day in this forum,i would probably still leave with my parents if i read advices like this

Thanks thremp
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Old 11-22-2019, 10:58 AM   #9
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

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Im glad there werent any pseudo bettng intlectuals back in the day in this forum,i would probably still leave with my parents if i read advices like this

Thanks thremp
This is projection.

Are you even reading what you are writing?

Please read what you wrote again:

Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterRodriguez View Post
as a begginer bettor you need huge volume,soft outs/markes and an agressive staking size (0,5 kelly) provided you have a notion of your edge,something that few people focus on but its arguably the biggest point in terms of accelerating your groth as a beginner because you can apply kelly and in a couple years go from 0 to hero
This doesn’t even make any sense!

Sports Investing isn’t some get rich scheme, if you try to make a killing starting out, there will be a killing alright, but you won’t like the name on the Tombstone.

Take your BS elsewhere. Yeah, a new guy should be aggressively staking…. stop it.
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Old 11-22-2019, 11:02 AM   #10
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

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Im glad there werent any pseudo bettng intlectuals back in the day in this forum,i would probably still leave with my parents if i read advices like this

Thanks thremp
I can say w/out fear of contradiction, your advice is beyond terrible. Master your craft and then come back and talk to me, until then, don't mislead new people.

Thank you for your cooperation in advance.
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Old 11-22-2019, 11:24 AM   #11
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

GameBred is totally wrong. MrRod is correct. You're welcome btw.

If you can't quantify your edge, just bet like $20 a game and buy some beers if you win, and treat it like entertainment which it is. Implementing some jackass bet sizing scheme for a losing bettor is like my "plan" of betting the Don't against soy boys. (Way less fun tho)
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Old 11-22-2019, 11:36 AM   #12
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

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GameBred is totally wrong. MrRod is correct. You're welcome btw.

If you can't quantify your edge, just bet like $20 a game and buy some beers if you win, and treat it like entertainment which it is. Implementing some jackass bet sizing scheme for a losing bettor is like my "plan" of betting the Don't against soy boys. (Way less fun tho)
Ok, so long as you say so. Still waiting for one of you two to quote and bold me and provide a rejoinder but I guess you just settled things.

That's, that people.
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Old 11-22-2019, 11:42 AM   #13
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

Oh. Since I woke up grumpy and feel kinda bad. I'll post a useful tidbit on optimizing wager size for non-winning bettors: $0.

Hope that clarifies everything! (Breakeven bettors also get $0 stakes.)
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Old 11-22-2019, 11:44 AM   #14
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

you wrote a two page memo spreading BS all over,i m a hefty underdog to change your opinion

you won,now go back to Barnes & Noble and OP follow my advice,if you dont have a notion of your edge just bet recreationally until you do in stead of firing darts
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Old 11-22-2019, 11:51 AM   #15
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

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Oh. Since I woke up grumpy and feel kinda bad. I'll post a useful tidbit on optimizing wager size for non-winning bettors: $0.

Hope that clarifies everything! (Breakeven bettors also get $0 stakes.)
You want the Results (winning) w/out the Process (losing). It doesn’t work that way. No one that I personally know started out as a winning sports bettor.

Also, FYI for the slow ones in the back:

The “Bet Sizing Scheme,” is:

1. Answering the OP’s Question
2. Acknowledging that not all edges are created equal
3. Allows you to plot position size against performance
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Old 11-22-2019, 11:53 AM   #16
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

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Originally Posted by MisterRodriguez View Post
you wrote a two page memo spreading BS all over,i m a hefty underdog to change your opinion

you won,now go back to Barnes & Noble and OP follow my advice,if you dont have a notion of your edge just bet recreationally until you do in stead of firing darts
Quote me and bold me and show me what you take exception to.... until you or your buddy does that, WTF are you talking about?
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Old 11-22-2019, 11:55 AM   #17
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

I can say w/out fear of contradiction, ALL your advice is beyond terrible. Master your craft and then come back and talk to me, until then, don't
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Old 11-22-2019, 11:57 AM   #18
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

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I can say w/out fear of contradiction, ALL your advice is beyond terrible. Master your craft and then come back and talk to me, until then, don't
LMAO. Didn't think you would come up w/ anything but imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.... I'm flattered.
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Old 11-22-2019, 01:18 PM   #19
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

its funny a guy trying to teach a lesson with pure BS to 3 guys that went from 0 to 150 200 and 400k in 12/18 monhts

what i wrote on my 1st post is basically the blueprint on how a begginer bettor with a tiny bankroll can get to a 6 digit bankrol in a short time frame provided they know their edge which is as easy as subscribing to don best or beating props in tiny markets
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Old 11-22-2019, 01:37 PM   #20
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

I was never a -EV bettor. I don't know anyone who started out the way you claim.
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Old 11-22-2019, 01:45 PM   #21
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

I started out as a -EV bettor. That doesn't mean you should or have to. OP has already hit the point where he is asking pertinent ?s on the forums, so no reason for him to stack off $ under the guise of learning lessons.
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Old 11-22-2019, 01:47 PM   #22
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

Welp. That is one.
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Old 11-22-2019, 02:00 PM   #23
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

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I started out as a -EV bettor. That doesn't mean you should or have to. OP has already hit the point where he is asking pertinent ?s on the forums, so no reason for him to stack off $ under the guise of learning lessons.
So you agree that he shouldn't be aggressively betting; that is so silly it's beyond ridiculous.

I don't know what world you guys live in where it's somehow a sin to lose $. It happens, it's OK, get some skin in the game, take your lumps, learn and then earn.

You probably want him to Paper-Trade and I want him to Micro-Trade; each has their merits.
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Old 11-22-2019, 02:04 PM   #24
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

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I was never a -EV bettor. I don't know anyone who started out the way you claim.
Not sure what I claimed besides I don't know anyone who made $ from the jump.

People hate losing more than they like winning and are thereby highly incentiivized to figure this **** out. Some do, some don't.
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Old 11-22-2019, 02:07 PM   #25
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Re: Bankroll questions: Standardizing bet sizes

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I started out as a -EV bettor. That doesn't mean you should or have to. OP has already hit the point where he is asking pertinent ?s on the forums, so no reason for him to stack off $ under the guise of learning lessons.
Please explain to me how the OP betting, at most, $2 a game, is stacking off $? He's stacking off $ following your boy's advice that newbies should implement aggressively staking strategies. No they should not! They should micro-trade and learn the trade.

Last edited by GameBred; 11-22-2019 at 02:16 PM.
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