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Old 04-30-2018, 05:53 AM   #1
kewIx
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bankroll question

Would the pokerdope variance calculator work for sports betting? pokerdope asks you to enter the standard deviation and winrate.

http://www.pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

To give a simple example say

standard deviation is 3.62
winrate 0.10 ROI

Thing is when I enter ^ this, its saying required bankroll 196 bet units, so betting $100 a game requires a bankroll of $19,600, seems way overboard?
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Old 04-30-2018, 07:48 AM   #2
Mihkel05
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Re: bankroll question

Kelly Criterion.
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Old 04-30-2018, 08:30 AM   #3
kewIx
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Re: bankroll question

Yeah I use Kelly for all my staking, but this was just a experiment for something else, and was just trying to figure out if the pokerdope calculator can be used, and what to enter as the winrate.

I suppose the 0.10 is correct but the bankroll suggested amount didn't make sense and thought I ask here if it was correct.
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Old 05-01-2018, 04:30 AM   #4
MisterRodriguez
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Re: bankroll question

No,pokerdope works for ... poker

Kelly Criterion
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Old 05-01-2018, 04:34 AM   #5
kewIx
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Re: bankroll question

With pokerdope it just asks you to enter two simple values, your winrate and standard deviation, can you explain why it wouldn't work for sports betting? not disputing kelly is the most optimal staking approach, but instead just wondering why do you say it wouldn't give the correct sims for sports?
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Old 05-01-2018, 04:45 AM   #6
Mihkel05
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Re: bankroll question

You're asking him to explain how purple and 12 taste.
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Old 05-01-2018, 04:49 AM   #7
kewIx
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Re: bankroll question

I'm asking him would the pokerdope calculations be correct, neverminding that it wouldn't be the optimal staking approach.
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Old 05-01-2018, 04:54 AM   #8
Mihkel05
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Re: bankroll question

What does that even mean? They're not even correct for poker. They're a vague approximation of BR outcomes given a flat win rate and a normal distribution of outcomes. Both of those are obviously incorrect assumptions, but its "good enough".

I'm not even sure what you're asking.
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Old 05-01-2018, 05:13 AM   #9
kewIx
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Re: bankroll question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05 View Post
They're a vague approximation of BR outcomes given a flat win rate and a normal distribution of outcomes.

This ^ is all that I am after.

Because I'm testing a flat winrate only staking approach.

But I'm just trying to work out what do I enter as my win rate in the pokerdope winrate section?

Say using a simple 7 bet example see below, where there a 10 bets with a flat $1 stake per bet.


5
-1
2
4
-1
-1
-1

So the first one 5 would mean a $5 profit as it won from the $1 bet

The second is a $1 loss betting a even money bet and so on

Basically just trying to figure out what to enter as the win rate lets say using the 7 bet example above?
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Old 05-01-2018, 05:43 AM   #10
Mihkel05
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Re: bankroll question

There is an obviously better way of doing that.

Also, stop being such a dick when asking for help.

Best of luck.
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Old 05-01-2018, 05:45 AM   #11
kewIx
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Re: bankroll question

where was I a dick honestly?
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Old 05-01-2018, 06:01 AM   #12
kewIx
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Re: bankroll question

I reread this thread and simply don't see where I acted like a dick, if anyone can point out where I behaved like a dick in this thread please do as I'm now curious.
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Old 05-02-2018, 12:03 AM   #13
PokerHero77
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Re: bankroll question

If you have good hedge opportunities you should be betting over Kelly.
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