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Old 03-01-2021, 08:13 PM   #1
LongDTravis
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Bad beat occurrence relative to skill

It’s been years but I remember a line from Super System or Theory of Poker that said good players should have more bad beats put on them because they get the money in good more than bad players.

Does this apply to sportsbetting and horse racing as well? It is a lot easier to define bad beat in poker but it would seem to me that taking the best of it, is taking the best of it.

I don’t gamble professionally by any stretch of the imagination and don’t plan to. However, I’ve beat the “house” 4/5 years in my nfl/college football pickem league (ATS with lines fluctuating with the market based on bovada lines). Our league commissioner keeps track of bad beats and puts it in the spread sheet. I busted out our last 3 years of data today while I was bored and it seemed like the better players had many more bad beats than the people who don’t do as well. Could something similar be at play?

I haven’t gone in and verified if he really counts true bad beats. An example of one of mine was BYU total under when both teams decided to run uptempo the second half in a route (I watched this game and bet a wad on it in vegas and it still makes me sick )
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Old 03-03-2021, 04:55 PM   #2
txdome
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Re: Bad beat occurrence relative to skill

Crazy enough, uni teaches you how to do these maths. So instead of smoking doobs you could have figured this out.
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Old 03-04-2021, 10:04 AM   #3
heehaww
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Re: Bad beat occurrence relative to skill

If a bad beat is defined as getting it in way ahead and losing, that'll happen when you beat the closing line by a lot and still lose, and yes that happens more often to good bettors than bad ones.

But if a bad beat is your side giving up a big lead during the game, I think sharps and recs would suffer from that at equal frequency.
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Old 03-24-2021, 01:51 PM   #4
rivercitybirdie
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Re: Bad beat occurrence relative to skill

what is a bad beat? seems like overused expression these days.

even the craziest last play bad beat...... well, maybe there was a horrible missed call on a huge play earlier in the game, meaning you didn't really earn the win that you bad beat lost.

they even out in the end...........

with sports betting, i think you get more bad beats if you bet on favorites. a ncaa team up by 28 may not care if other team scores TD in final minute...... of course, if you could get a "bad beat insured line", it would be a worse line i.e. backdoor covers are priced into lines.

not sure if a lame backdoor cover is a bad beat by some people's definition.
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Old 03-24-2021, 01:52 PM   #5
rivercitybirdie
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Re: Bad beat occurrence relative to skill

one particularly nba bad beat i had was the losing team running out the final 20 seconds on the shot clock.
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