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Old 06-11-2020, 05:02 AM   #201
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

lol....awesome ...just hit first 10 legs and hedge last....easy game
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Old 06-11-2020, 05:29 AM   #202
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

GL Rickroll

I won't even feel too bad if you lose your dollar, hope we get a sweat going

And you'd ****ing better not hedge the last leg, since it's Cronulla which is the highest EV bet of the lot

-12 -119 isnt the best line but theyll get there a lot anyway, to be honest I don't really hate any of the others although there are better prices on the market for Raiders, some 7.5 at one aussie book and 8 at a couple still etc

Rest of your numbers look fine

Aus/NZ sport is officially back, NZ super rugby starting this weekend too with a couple games plus NRL/AFL in full swing now minus fans
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Old 06-11-2020, 06:30 AM   #203
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

I hate my life right now.. The **** is going on?
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Old 06-11-2020, 06:56 AM   #204
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Well I hope Richmond bail me out today with a comeback because my god Manly have been horrendous

Not mathematically impossible for them to cover but I would have put Broncos score the first 3 tries right at the very bottom of things I thought would happen this week right next to 'Dragons score 30 points' and 'Bulldogs beat Roosters'

Richmond had a good 2nd quarter, more of the same as this is going to be a game after that 1-25 start

Manly would need a monsterous collapse from the Broncos though

Broncos back at full strength could be decent if they get rid of Darius Boyd, Coates has obv earned his spot on the wing - they won't finish in the top 4 or anything but could still play finals when they get their full squad back

I have no idea what this is from Manly they've played 3 of the top 4 sides and done fine overall then they put up this performance

If they don't dominate the second half I have no idea what to make of their performance today they were just so flat in attack and so soft in defense
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Old 06-11-2020, 07:59 AM   #205
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

please bring in extra time for afl!

nrl -1
afl -1 ($50 bonus bet but cant really count that I guess)

total -2

next
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Old 06-11-2020, 08:00 AM   #206
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Wow Richmond should have won but i'll take the draw. That kick marked on the line from only 35 out even a behind and they win by 1

5-10 extra minutes and Richmond would have got them but i'll take it from 0

Manly come back to win too but didnt cover

Looks like the Carlton line back to 10.5 at most books but happy with the side at this point still

Ah well on to tomorrow, just a shame I didn't have a Manly -1.5 altline at -300 or whatever instead of the main spread lol

Broncos didn't score a point last 60 mins just disappointing to lose the unders to that fast start

The book I bet Richmond on voided instead of deadheat so it's being graded as a void the Richmond ml

15-9-1 +3.36u

On to tomorrow. Just got Eels for now, but will probably get on the Cowboys in some capacity if I can find a suitable line I think assuming Taumalolo and Hess are definitely in @ final squads etc

Market's been leaning Hawks in the AFL, has come in from 10.5 to 8.5 at a lot of books might take a look there or on game day in the AFL I don't really have an opinion on that one and will bet whatever the market tells me to
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Old 06-11-2020, 10:00 AM   #207
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

again you kind of mentioned an under but didn't like it and i bet it anyway and it came home

know nothing about this stuff but as someone who literally played rugby, i am using this as the perfect excuse to have a reunion, enjoying the thread and the sweats i'm getting tailing you guys
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Old 06-11-2020, 07:49 PM   #208
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Ugh -12.5 WB? How did you wind up there early bet I assume? Line went 10.5 to 12.5 to 12 to 11.5 back to 12 now, 12.5 is literally the worst number its been at any book all week anywhere and -11.5 still is at some

Added two more AFL plays

Carlton +10.5 while its available seems to be on the move at some books but still there on others and they did put up a fight against Richmond, might be decent improvers this year, and Lions -17.5 at home vs Freo who are not great, also seems to have started moving at some but -17.5 still available too and the Lions do tend to play very well at the Gabba as opposed to away, i'd have figured that sort of margin would be about right on neutral ground but even with no fans they're still at home and Freo have to travel from Perth

Carlton +10.5 -111
Brisbane Lions -17.5 -111

Add them to the list

Gold Coast Suns line has come in a little too but gonna leave that alone because lol Gold Coast Suns etc want to see some improvement out of them before I back them against contenders even at huge numbers
ya was some **** line on party that i had 80 bucks extra on. made it very late like 2 hrs before it started. oh well lul
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Old 06-12-2020, 12:54 AM   #209
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding for today

Eels -5.5 -110 (effectively a double play now with my -1.5 altline)

Cowboys/Warriors u38.5 -111
Warriors u15.5 pts -105

Market's leaning Cowboys and Under in the first game, Hawthorn in the AFL and second game is neutral but I like the Eels side to -5.5
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Old 06-12-2020, 01:17 AM   #210
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Taking u125.5 for Hawthorn/Geelong -110

The unders lines been going nuts last cpl days down closer to 123.5 now, with the reduced quarter length and layoff guess the market thinks it may play out a low scoring grind like yesterday

Was up at 130ish earlier in the week but no signs of unders steam slowing yet
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Old 06-12-2020, 01:26 AM   #211
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding Cowboys -1.5 altline -189 as well

Ok that should do for today

Not as sure on the Warriors u15.5 think the Cowboys altlines better, it's a weird one because the Cowboys are going over every game and the Warriors are going under every game lately
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Old 06-12-2020, 01:53 AM   #212
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Ok taking one more, Eels game o35.5 -118

Market makes it 36.5 and crossing 36 is key plus I slightly lean towards this being a 38 game anyway, yes, they're rivals and they can defend and all that but the Eels attack is too good and while I really think the Eels score 4 tries here and Penrith 2 or so on average, if they're all converted that gets there plus a chance of penalty goals and Penrith will get a third try a lot too with Cleary back

Basically I think 36.5 to 38ish is fair, and I can cross the 36 which is a very key number in NRL for minimal vig in a game i'd be narrowly leaning towards the over on at 36.5 anyway

o36 or better is good here imo, 36.5 is meh but i'd rather have overs than unders for anyone following alone and definitely don't take worse than 37.5 ever
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Old 06-12-2020, 02:26 AM   #213
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Ok so to sum up today we want AFL unders, and Cowboys/under first game and Eels/over second game

Let's do it
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Old 06-12-2020, 03:16 AM   #214
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Ironically I actually wound up more on lead ht win for Cowboys than any of the other bets for that game but whatever I have enough stuff official for the thread so i'll leave it as is

tbh I like the Cowboys spread too I think they just win 30-6 or 24-10 etc a lot here unless the Warriors show up

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Old 06-12-2020, 04:33 AM   #215
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Stupid market w unders lean lol this ones prob going way over, Cows have a ton of pts in them still etc

I'm just hoping they get some by the half

Gonna middle my o35.5 with u36.5 -111 which ill lock in for thread too for Eels game, bit of a drift there just gonna stick w my eels bets
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Old 06-12-2020, 05:02 AM   #216
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

NRL -3 legs pays $3.60

Alternative Total Match Points Over (33.5)
Pick Your Own Line Eels (-0.5)
Anytime Try scorer Blake Ferguson

AFL -3 legs pays $3.60

J.Worpel ov 20 possessions
P.Dangerfield ov 20 possessions
E.Ratugolea anytime goal scorer

Both with the 2 of 3 bonus bet rebate for first 50 gold sovereigns (fwiw)

GL Folks!
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Old 06-12-2020, 05:17 AM   #217
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

using first 50 bonus bet - pays $6.75

P.Dangermouse - anytime goal scorer
L.Breust- anytime goal scorer
M.Duncan - ov 20 possessions
L.Shiels - ov 20 possesions
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Old 06-12-2020, 05:18 AM   #218
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Horrible defense from the Cowboys and Warriors today but honestly the Warriors should still win easily here

Shame livebetting is tough to sort in Aus or would have added on Cows ml as dogs at HT but yeah

Obv the under is way way wrong this one stupidly trusted market under steam there. To be honest the Cowboys could put 40 on them here and I wouldn't be shocked
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Old 06-12-2020, 07:06 AM   #219
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Well this has not been my finest start to a weekend ever
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Old 06-12-2020, 08:03 AM   #220
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Eels bailed me out a bit, fortunately for me it was my equal biggest bet along w AFL under and wasn't too heavy on the Cowboys ones. If my math's right we go from

15-9-1 +3.36u

to

18-14-1 +1.03u

I'll double check tomorrow pretty tired atm long day etc

Pretty dumb to have 3 Cowboys game bets ITT when I only had a unit or so spread across them but then again it's worked in the other way on spots i've taken two altlines that have won with only a unit or so between them

On to tomorrow

We have Carlton and Bris Lions spreads, a couple Cronulla spreads and Raiders and Roosters pending from memory
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Old 06-12-2020, 10:53 AM   #221
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Taking u44.5 -110 on Titans/Rabbitohs for tomorrow. Have been better on sides than totals this season but I like it more than either side at the current number.

While they're overs teams on paper and I was considering overs earlier in the week expecting the line to be set lower... it's 44.5, that is an absolutely massive number, Titans seem to be improving although their defense leaves a lot to be desired I know the coach will be working hard on it this week. 8 tries 6 conversions is still a cover for the under, and it will certainly have 8 tries or less more often than 9+ I think a shade under 8 tries but well over 7 is par. Would have happily backed an over at 41.5 or so, but the market thinks fair here is about 42.5 and I tend to agree, 44.5 is just so high, if you get a 3 try first half or something you'd need 5 tries in a half and while that certainly happens a bunch I just think 44.5 is too high for almost any combination of teams right now.

The under can get there two ways, either the Titans make a game of it and are super motivated all game in defense and it's close or even if the Rabbitohs blow them away and the Titans only put 6 points up or something it can still get there because the number's so big, 38-6 is a cover, so is 24-20, etc it's just so many points I can't pass it up (although I would pass 43.5, as 44 is a key number as are all even numbers in the 30s and low 40s etc)

No bet for Knights/Storm but lean Knights if I can get 4.5 or so but not going to take worse, and happy with my Raiders -1.5 altline from earlier in the week, although if it gets to -7 or so I might consider taking some or even -7.5 maybe.

Let's hope tomorrow goes better than today. Raiders is my 2nd leg of a 3 and a 4 leg boosted parlay i'm one leg into (Eels being first leg) so would be nice to get some wins there

If I recall correctly I now have

Carlton +10.5
Brisbane Lions -17.5
Titans/Rabbitohs u44.5
Raiders -1.5 -208 (fine to -7.5 main line imo)

For the Raiders game the Tigers just have massive structural problems in defense and while they can score some points, the Raiders defense is normally excellent they just had an off week last week. I expect the Raiders to win by 13+ about half the time to be honest and I wouldn't back Wests until at least 12.5 although obviously crossing the 8 is big and there is some -7.5 out there it's worth paying -115 or -118 or whatever to be on the right side of the 8

Might get some late steam on other AFL games or super rugby we'll see I guess

Sharks still my fav spot of the weekend but have to wait until Sunday

Last edited by SwoopAE; 06-12-2020 at 11:00 AM.
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Old 06-12-2020, 11:30 AM   #222
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)



lines and vig i have too silly to follow in earnest so i'll yolo some washingtons
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Old 06-12-2020, 01:49 PM   #223
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

cant go wrong for 8 bucks
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Old 06-12-2020, 07:23 PM   #224
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Backed off knights lean cos markets heavy on storm someone trying to get 40k on Betfair this far or at -150 ml

I do think it'll be a close game but consider putting a couple bucks on it W storm ml too if anything close to -150 gl

I actually took a little storm ml just cos market likes it atm but not big may middle.w +4.5 if I can get it at some point idk

Not counting it for thread at this point tho
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Old 06-13-2020, 12:45 AM   #225
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

There was some massive Lions/overs steam in the first AFL game, didn't get on overs but it's smashing it gonna get there with more than a quarter spare probably
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