Smashed the close on that u40.5 but the defenses melt down mid game, Knights win outright though as decent dogs which is nice most likely up 10 w 8min left not quite a lock h2h yet but the +8.5 is very safe
No bet for the next one altho woulda had Tigers -7.5 if I had as posted earlier in the wk. I lean overs at 41.5 if I had to pick a side, but no plans to bet that either
To clarify for thread purposes no bets on the next match, but just posting leans incase anyone wants them. I'm a Titans fan so I hope my team can actually play well today, but have little faith in their ability to do so, I hope to be pleasantly surprised
Happy Titans fan and I even had a small overs bet myself but left the side alone that game but doesnt count for thread
Taking Dragons -118 for tomorrow, I actually have it with a promo that auto wins if certain criteria met but we'll count it just as h2h for the thread
Lean unders at 36.5 but not enough to bet it quite I might talk myself into it though
For now just one pending, Dragons -118 straight up
Fool me once shame on me (vs Wests), Fool me twice shame on me (vs Warriors), fool me three times...
but on paper they're much better than the Bulldogs and the coach has to know his job is on the line this week and the Bulldogs have nothing in attack
That said it's always scary betting on an out of form poorly coached team even against an out of form team with absolutely no talent lol
The official play for tomorrow Dragons -118 ML; shoulda prob got -110 was there all week but whatever this will do and my bet has a sick uncapped promo to add some EV to it
Think the Dragons are fine til about -125 or so then it becomes a pass for anyone who wants the sweat; and anyone who wants totals can back unders til 36.5 which is still available at some books
The unders reasoning is Bulldogs attack is **** but their defense is decent. 36.5 is lowish but this game will be a low scoring grind if neither team breaks mentally.
Taking St George because their side is just so much better on paper and they at least showed some promise against Penrith before choking, the Bulldogs have shown nothing this season other than some ok defense against the Eels in a game they didn't even score a try in themselves. With the Titans and Sharks winning this round, whoever loses this will be the last team this season without a win. At the end of the day on paper the Dragons are the 12th-13th best team, and the Bulldogs are the 15th or 16th best team on paper so given they're both Sydney clubs and it's effectively on neutral ground i'm just going to take the side that is far better on paper.
Disappointing end to the round, we did have a -133 novig price on betfair at start time but then the Dragons just played like utter garbage and obviously their on paper talent just can't do it anymore - since that collapse against Penrith in r2 they've just forgotten how to attack
Fool me three times shame on me, I won't be backing the Dragons at any point until McGregor is fired as coach and they need to replace some backs, they have Lafai and Saab not even in the lineup it's time to drop a couple of their backs for sure after that performance and their forward pack keeps underperforming if they don't fire the coach they might lose by 30 next week to the Sharks
Something broken at the club culture. I'm actually confident the Titans beat them in two weeks and I thought the Titans might not start as a favourite all year
I think all of the Sea Eagles/Sharks/Eels/Roosters/Raiders win easily next week on paper the Rabbitohs should too but they're massively underperforming still. In theory the Cowboys should handle the Warriors but they were horrible this week, and who knows if the Knights can potential shock the world again against the Storm
Will wait for sides/lines to come out and see what we get next week.
-150ish still available on betfair but they're moving on on most books, they just look like the best team by so far at the MCG against anyone so even against a legit contender in Collingwood i'm going to back them to win 60something percent of the time for sure
Cronulla -5.5 -110
St George are a mess, didn't sack their coach and Cronulla finally started to click a bit last game and get it together especially in attack and St George aren't playing well enough to exploit their defense atm. -6 is fine here too tbh I make them more like -10
Cronulla -1.5 -161
Took the altline here as well think it's really good when the ML is -2xx, I doubt they win a field goal game very often to be honest I think they win by 12+ more often than not. The Dragons are a mess, their coach sucks, and nothing seems to be changing week to week now, I was hanging out with 'theyre okay on paper' until the Bulldogs game (and they've had the softest draw so far of any team) but at a certain point there's just something broken at the club and whatever it is hasn't been fixed this week the side is mostly the same, the coach is the same and their idea of attacking seems to be 'bomb to the corner with no players chasing'
Parramatta -1.5 -161
Took the altline here too but I like the main -5.5 as well. Cleary is back for Penrith which is big and the Eels didn't really deserve to beat Manly last week but imo Penrith is a step down from Manly and the difference is the Eels backline 1-5 are so much better. 6-13 the sides are pretty close, but the Eels have an amazing backline and Penrith don't. I think -6.5 or so is fair and the main line at -5.5 is fine too but prefer the altline here as they'll win by 2-4 quite a bit too etc
The Eels are full strength and while Penrith can match them 6-13, the 1-5 outside backs are far far better for the Eels and I think that may prove the difference here. I'd make a fair line -6.5 here.
Canberra Raiders -1.5 -208
Market's overreacted to their loss last week they def beat the out of form Tigers well over two thirds of the time and I don't think it'll be close. I wanted -7.5 earlier in the week but it's gone now so playing an altline, -8 is okayish but by 8.5 it's a pass imo
Roosters -16 -118
I wanted -15.5 ealier in the week but wasn't on yet and its gone now so w/e ill record at current price they're just better than the Bulldogs everywhere and the market will be high on the Bulldogs after their Dragons win - the Roosters are just going to break them with the new rules favouring teams to cover in mismatches imo until the market has adjusted, the faster pace gets the trailing team tired in the last 10 mins or so
This could be 28-12 or 40-4, but I really doubt it'll be much closer than the former even if the Roosters don't break them there's no way the Bulldogs have enough points in them to trouble this spread unless the Roosters underperform and get 4 tries or less in a game they'll dominate
The Sharks are very clearly the best spot of the round imo, whether you want ML -217 or -6 or a nicely priced altline - sure they can be inconsistent but their attack is worlds better than the Dragons right now and the Dragons are a club in disarray, if they couldn't rally against the Warriors and the Bulldogs they're not going to against the Sharks anywhere near often enough. Their forwards lost the battle the past two weeks and that's supposed to be their strong point and with no coaching change in sight we just have to start fading the Dragons at any reasonable number until they show improvement. They've literally had the softest draw of any team so far and they're 0-4 and other than early in the Penrith game where they blew a big lead pre-Coronavirus break they've just looked awful
If anyone's just gonna tail one pick in some capacity make it the Sharks imo that's my spot of the week, i've backed both -1.5 altline and -5.5 personally and may wind up adding more somewhere too
On a Manly spread atm but not sure i'll keep it but I do like Brisbane Broncos u2.5 tries today at -118 so we'll take that as our play for today's NRL game; other than Staggs returning their attack should still be very poor and Manly are an elite defensive unit
I lean towards Manly covering 11.5, 12.5 not so much, but think that if Manly don't cover it'll often be because it's a low scoring 18-10 grind or something I don't see this game going over unless Manly blow them away and if they do I really think the Broncos don't get a third try very often given the momentum will be against them etc and their forward pack still sucks with no Pangai or Fifita, Haas can't do it all himself. Staggs back is a big plus he could put together a solo try at some stage, but Oates is playing in the second row when despite his poor form he's still a winger and Turpin's still injured, the Broncos spine just isn't good enough at the moment and their backs have no points in them other than Staggs
I think this game's gonna be a straightforward 12-6 24-12 type game a lot, but if it isn't it's more likely to be either a low scoring grind or a Manly blowout
Small on manly -11.5 and lead ht win -161 today as well as the broncos u2.5 tries one which I liked the most of the 3 so counted for the thread but all are related. U40.5 is fine too but not gonna play it unless it steams more as I think if it goes under, the Broncos TT is going under slightly more often anyway
Fwiw I did like Cowboys -5.5 too but its long gone, 6.5 is meh
I don't want any piece of Newcastle vs Melbourne either side
I didn't mind Souths to -11.5 but def not at -12.5, Titans fan again, Souths are back to full strength and should roll them on paper but the Titans do seem to be improving, they put in 40 minutes vs the Cowboys then finally put together 60 minutes or so which was enough vs a subpar wests. I don't think they beat Souths, but they might keep it somewhat competitive
It's an overs game but not touching 44.5
I'll take a look at the other afl games tomorrow/ game day etc will read what the market's doing a bit more than outright handicapping for those
I have the Sharks as the only multi unit level spot this week (or take sharks-do-well-related props), then Eels/Raiders/Roosters second tier in that i'd want several points more than current market to take the other side, although I only want Eels til -5.5 not -6, then the rest are just okayish leans including Manly today (I'm highly confident they win outright, but the spread a bit less so as it could become an unders game, that said I wouldn't be shocked to see Manly win 22-6 or so even if so)
In theory I don't mind Newcastle +4 with Ryley Jacks as the Storm halfback (he sucks) but still it's the Storm and Newcastle while legit now may be prone to lapses in concentration that may cost them so will probably leave that game alone.
To be honest I like all of the favourites this week except for the Storm in the NRL to cover if I had to take a side and I think we'll see more favourites than average cover over the next few weeks due to the rule changes until the lines catch up
Could have had some better numbers if I posted my spots ITT 2 days ago but wanted to get most of my action down before posting etc
u14.5 Broncos team total available on one book now that's marginally better than the u2.5 tries as I think they're more likely to get 3 with 2 missed conversions out wide than 2 and kick multiple penalty goals (one is quite possible 2+ will be rare)
In fact let's lock that in as another official bet for tonight Broncos u14.5 points -116
Ugh -12.5 WB? How did you wind up there early bet I assume? Line went 10.5 to 12.5 to 12 to 11.5 back to 12 now, 12.5 is literally the worst number its been at any book all week anywhere and -11.5 still is at some
Added two more AFL plays
Carlton +10.5 while its available seems to be on the move at some books but still there on others and they did put up a fight against Richmond, might be decent improvers this year, and Lions -17.5 at home vs Freo who are not great, also seems to have started moving at some but -17.5 still available too and the Lions do tend to play very well at the Gabba as opposed to away, i'd have figured that sort of margin would be about right on neutral ground but even with no fans they're still at home and Freo have to travel from Perth
Carlton +10.5 -111
Brisbane Lions -17.5 -111
Add them to the list
Gold Coast Suns line has come in a little too but gonna leave that alone because lol Gold Coast Suns etc want to see some improvement out of them before I back them against contenders even at huge numbers