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Old 06-04-2020, 01:42 AM   #151
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

If you need a way to watch aus sport lmk via PM or whatever will help out

Tedesco is probably out for the Roosters npw has a fever, hes our star fullback. So that sucks, we're still on the right side but its gonna close at like -333 to -350 now instead of -500 probably

That said they have Hall or Aubusson to bring in for him so their back line will still crush, just move Manu to fullback and bring one of the others into the backline

I guess I cursed it bragging about how far I was crushing the line by line got out to -12.5 gonna head back to 8.5 or 10 now due to Tedesco being out

Still expect the Roosters to dominate but that was literally the worst thing that could have happened and we're still gonna beat closing line so there's that
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Old 06-04-2020, 03:39 AM   #152
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

I missed getting on the Rooster earlier in the week, ****ing spewing.

I got a few Units on a Multi

Roosters -4.5
Storm
Tigers

Looks pretty safe.. I do like the Knights at $3 for a bit of value, Their pack was awesome against Penrith and with Pearce and Ponga back and if their forwards perform like they did last round they could cause an upset.. Still haven't decided if im gonna play though..
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Old 06-04-2020, 04:16 AM   #153
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

I took the Knights at 8.5, would probably pass the current 7.5 line though. I think the Raiders probably win, but that the Knights will make a game for it and cover more often than not and yeah, might actually win if they play as well as last week. Their line to make the finals at -105 or so seems like a steal i'm just never a fan of tying up cash for months for a tiny ROI

As a Titans fan yeah, they'll win a game eventually but -250ish is probably fine for the Tigers assuming you got about that. Not gonna play it prob to cheer for the Titans as a fan, but it's the right side imo

Storm aren't safe by any means but I do have them in a parlay at -222 with the Roosters from earlier in the week that I didn't post in thread so do have a small play there assuming the Roosters win tonight (not counting it for the thread as -222 not available atm and I bet it in a parlay not straight)

Line's gonna close back at about 10 for the Roosters after getting out to 12.5 before Tedesco got sick today, but I think they still win by a dozen or so on average and will blow them out a decent amount of the time

Kinda regret not getting Manly at +4 seems like they'll probably close at +2 which is about fair but oh well

Let's go Roosters get us off to a good start for the weekend. Pretty sick they can lose the literal MVP from last season on game day and still will close at a shorter price than I paid a few days ago for them. Also pretty sick that they're obvious salary cap cheats when they can casually pull an England international winger in to replace him who doesn't even normally make their starting side.

Market has Roosters at -340 now, think they probably close at like -320 after random donks see Tedesco out and hit the Broncos even though their side is still complete garbage with tons of key players out and the Roosters should roll them even without their star fullback
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Old 06-04-2020, 05:01 AM   #154
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Taking some Warriors +6.5 -110 for tomorrow while it's there, line seems to be shortening and with how horrible Penrith were last weekend and how improved and motivated the Warriors seemed to be I think they make a game of it a lot

Also took Storm ML at -222 the other day; it's currently available at that price at betfair so gonna lock that in as an official play as well

Pending

Roosters ml -250
Roosters lead ht win -118
Warriors +6.5 -110
Knights +8.5 -111
Storm ML -222

Taukaeiho a big in for the Roosters wasn't expecting him to play. Helps offset the loss of Tedesco slightly, not quite as key a player but it definitely helps. Tonight's game in 43mins for any overseas people who plan to watch

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Old 06-04-2020, 05:54 AM   #155
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

this will be the first rugby league match i watch.

go roosters!

(they are the guys in the white jerseys, right?)
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Old 06-04-2020, 06:10 AM   #156
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Roosters closed at -385 in the end

Looks like it'll be a start to finish domination probably, 10-0 early, hope you all got on in some capacity

I think they win 36-6 or something a ton

Yes, the Roosters are in white. They're the defending champs and widely hated as the rich eastern Sydney snobs

The Broncos are the lone team from Brisbane a huge NRL fanbase city and the third largest city in Aus. They're normally a team that makes finals but hasn't won the comp since 2006. They're missing several of their best players today though. They're also widely hated by their non fans because they're historically one of the most dominant sides, but this year are barely expected to make the finals whereas the Roosters are contenders to win it all along with the Storm, Raiders, Eels and maybe Sea Eagles as the top tier of contenders. Broncos are in the next tier expected to make playoffs but not to win it etc, but they're missing too many players today hence the value bet

This probably won't be an epic game as a fan as likely to be one sided but if you bet on the Roosters to cover you're gonna enjoy it probably

Double header tomorrow, we actually have 5 days in a row of games this week (1-2-2-2-1) starting today i'll have bets for anyone who doesn't follow Aussie sport in thread just keep your eye out

Aussie Rules (AFL) restarts next week and is a slightly more spectator friendly sport which is also very fun to watch as well.

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Old 06-04-2020, 06:16 AM   #157
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

This could end up being an absolute beatdown if the Broncos fold mentally in the final quarter of the game
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Old 06-04-2020, 06:33 AM   #158
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

For our first time fans sorry you don't get a sweat, but hope you at least bet Roosters to enjoy the beatdown lol

Games aren't normally 28-0 at the 32min mark obviously but this doesn't surprise me at all today. This is going to be one of the biggest margins of the season probably for any team.
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Old 06-04-2020, 06:34 AM   #159
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

This could legit get to 80.. The Covid lockdown has ****ed Brisbane from what I saw in the first 2 rounds, They are legit spoon tier right now they are not making the 8..
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Old 06-04-2020, 06:51 AM   #160
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

While Turpin, Pangai, Staggs and Fifita are out they'll still beat the bottom 4 sides a lot but yeah theyre like #12 range or whatever right now

At full strength they're right around the 8 mark but their backline is still trash tier just their pack is good. Top 5 teams are very clearly Roosters/Storm/Raiders/Eels/Sea Eagles, then I expect the Knights to make the 8 if everyone stays healthy and then maybe the Cowboys and Rabbitohs if the Rabbitohs can get their **** together mentally. Panthers a chance at full strength too, they've had a 'good' start to the season but are an incredibly unimpressive 2-0 with a draw after 3 rounds

Broncos could make it in theory but with their injury/suspension toll they have a rough few weeks ahead until they start getting key players back
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Old 06-04-2020, 07:53 AM   #161
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

11-2 +7.52u

Warriors, Storm and Knights bets pending

Casual 59-0, not bad at all
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Old 06-04-2020, 02:33 PM   #162
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

some of the names of the teams in rugby are amazing. "Manly Sea Eagles"


you think the storm will win? might toss them in with some ufc bets -6.5 seems good? its a total blast

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Old 06-04-2020, 09:55 PM   #163
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Yes I think the storm will win not sure about the cover but I'd lean that way if I had to pick

Pass -8.5 crossing 8 is a key number but -6.5 I have a mild lean to storm if I have to pick a side. Rabbitohs are good on paper but the storm very rarely lose two in a row and the Rabbitohs are still missing a key half and the storm are only missing one forward. The storm also have the bill Belichick of the NRL in their coach Bellamy and Bennett the Rabbitohs coach while once among the best is old and washed up imo and the Rabbitohs have been dealing with off field distractions recently too. I think the storm by about 8 seems like the median outcome to me.

I'm on them -222 ml and -1.5 -200 personally I'm highly confident they win but slightly less confident they cover warriors I have +6.5 as a fade on Penrith still without their halfback the warriors areca bad side on paper but played very well this week they're living together in camp in Australia atm and seem very motivated if they play like last week they'll cover if they play like pre covid warriors they won't

Manly is a suburb in Sydney (also a suburb in Brisbane but this teans from the Sydney one) but yeah it's an amazing name
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Old 06-05-2020, 02:26 AM   #164
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Penrith are strange side I don't think I have seen a team like this current Panthers squad to dominate games in the middle of the park and just start playing like a spoon side in the opposition 20.. Same as defending their own end they could have 80% of the ball and still bleed points.. Personally I think Penrtith will win pretty comfortable today but I wouldn't be surprised if Warriors come over the top of them, Warriors show any resilience on their line and Penrith will lose confident and die in the ass like they do every week.. Pretty much just Containing Kikau and Chrichton will go a long way to an NZ victory, easier said then done though..
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Old 06-05-2020, 03:06 AM   #165
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Anything could happen here obv Penrith have a better pack on paper but their backline is only okay and halves are pretty poor with no Cleary. I wouldn't be surprised by anything from Warriors by 12 to Penrith by 30 but it depends which side is more motivated - the Warriors from last week beat the Panthers from last week, the Warriors from week 1 get wrecked by the Panthers from week 1, but the Warriors are still in camp together and that seemed to be a positive and the Panthers are still without Cleary so i'm happy taking the 6.5

I'd take Penrith to win outright if my life depended on it, but with more than a converted try start I can't say no to the Warriors as underdogs

Would have taken the unders if 38.5 was available anywhere but it isn't so gonna pass, still lean that side but not enough to bet it below 38

The game has 16-12 written all over it imo, 6.5 is a pretty handy start in what I expect to be a low scoring game but really anything could happen here
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Old 06-05-2020, 05:26 AM   #166
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Got that one wrong, Warriors had their one good game last week but they're back to their round 1-2 garbage again evidently

Panthers aren't even playing particularly well

Doubling down next game have taken Storm lead HT and win -125 to go with my Storm -222 I already had

Let's go Storm, get us to a winning day

11-3 +6.42u the Warriors are toast here
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Old 06-05-2020, 05:57 AM   #167
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Storm about to close -350 here and at -9.5

I like that they're starting Brandon Smith instead of off the bench. Lee instead of Seve doesn't really matter basically a side-grade not a substantial downgrade

Hopefully Rabbitohs still off their game like last week. I have to think the Storm will be a lot better at home, Bellamy will have them fired up
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Old 06-05-2020, 06:21 AM   #168
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Of course Latrell decided to turn up tonight.. We need Round 1-3 Latrell or this could go bad.
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Old 06-05-2020, 07:51 AM   #169
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Bit of scare there but pretty comfortable in the end.
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Old 06-05-2020, 07:52 AM   #170
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Latrell is good, but Wayne Bennett is a below average coach in 2020 and they're not the same without Cody Walker

Too many handling errors and elite Storm defense today for the Bunnies

They'll win half this games this year though tons of talent etc should finish middle of the pack when they get it together at some point they've also had a tough draw so far

Storm win and Storm lead HT win wins too

13-3 +8.42u now with just the Knights spread pending

No bets for tomorrow's games yet. I initially leaned Manly at +4 but didn't bet it and the line's at 2.5 now, I make that about right and I sort of lean to the Cowboys but don't really want -2.5 either there with no Taumalolo so i'll trust the gameday steam on both games probably.

See you all tomorrow for some more sweats - for the overseas people who don't watch NRL, tomorrow's games are both close on paper, the first game is between two legit contenders and the second game is between two mid level sides, granted the Sharks are out of form and missing one of their halves and the Cowboys are without their best forward.
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Old 06-05-2020, 11:12 PM   #171
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Two bets for the first game today not going huge but I do like them enough to bet

Manly +2.5 -110

A bit annoyed at missing the +4 earlier in the week but there's some mild steam there and I make it a pickem on paper. 2.5 still available at a lot of books but it's headed to 2 and may be headed to 1.5 at the sharper books and I make the sides almost exactly even on paper and while Parramatta are at home it's no fans and in the same city so I dont think the edge is worth 2.5, maybe 1.5. complete flip of a game so I take the dog with points.

Also taking u40.5 -111 these sides have had some shootouts in the past but both have solid defense and to be honest I'd make this total more like 38 because both sides can defend.

Market likes sharks for the second game but I'm leaving it alone for now unless there's insane movement as I have a small personal lean to cowboys even without taumalolo and Morgan. Sharks missing Townsend and xerri so not like they're full strength either and it is in Townsville.

Pending for today so far

Manly +2.5 -110
Manly/eels u40.5 -111
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Old 06-06-2020, 03:31 AM   #172
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Taking Cowboys ML -133 for the second game today. Gonna trust my read and the mild Sharks steam seems to have reversed and it's edging back to Cowboys so gonna get on now while it's still available
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Old 06-06-2020, 05:20 AM   #173
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

14-4 +8.32

Brutal beat there

Manly +2.5, down 3 and they score a try out wide last minute and it gets disallowed; if it was allowed and they missed the conversion would have been a scoop

GL Cowboys

Big drama with 6 Sharks players tested for temperature but all passed on second test, was huge Cowboys steam when that happened then it moved back to the line it was at beforehand - I think it's a net positive for my Cowboys bet as it disrupted the Sharks preparation an hour before though at least
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Old 06-06-2020, 05:29 AM   #174
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Sides are super close on paper for this second game too but i'm taking the Cowboys home ground advantage despite no fans plus slightly better heart/grind to get them there in a close one
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Old 06-06-2020, 09:36 AM   #175
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

14-5 +6.99u now - got the Cowboys one in bad unfortunately their defense did not show up today

Adding u40.5 -111 for Newcastle/Canberra tomorrow to go with my Newcastle +8.5 -111

Would have to concede more than 24 points to get scooped here, and while it's certainly possible, it's not super likely, and the Knights can definitely cover with it going under or even win if they have an amazing day

I'm basically betting that the Knights at full strength will make a game of it. If they put in the effort they did last week, they will. If not maybe not, but I think they show up again i'm pretty high on the Knights making the finals this season

In theory I like Tigers -7.5 but not going to bet it or count it for this thread as i'm a Titans fan so staying away for now and will get to cheer for my team to not lost their 15th straight game lol

Disclaimer on the Knights bet it's drifted against me over the past day, -7.5 back to the opening -8.5 again. If Pearce is ruled out i'm going to arb out or take a tiny loss if need be, but if he's in i'm keeping it
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