calling it early for a good way to go out for now
NRL Game 1 = 0
NRL Game 2 =+2.8U

My two fav this week

Knights -11.5 -111
Titans -11.5 -111

Think both win by tons

Knights prob the better of the two but both sides finally healthy, playing far worse teams w/ injury issues and need to win to make the 8

Both win by plenty imo

Got backdoor covered two games in a row against me. Not fun

Takes me to breakeven or slight losing for season I think will total it up sometime

In reality on a pretty nasty downswing after starting the year super well. Will grind it back, but very frustrating

still haven't spent the 12 bucks in my account lol

Not quite available prices on some of the stuff I got but I took Titans ML +103, Port Adelaide Power -126 and Manly -16.5 into Penrith -20.5 parlay at -108 (bought the altlines on both game vs taking the main lines which are much higher - both teams will dominate and should cover my spread easily, but at 30ish current spreads gets trickier)

If I had to guess the current lines are still the right side on all of the games though

For thread let's record the current betfair prices; Port -133, Titans -115 and the Manly/Penrith parlay should boost to about -111 on sb still at current numbers

Would strongly consider taking 365 for -115 if going Titans for more than 250 bucks for the lead 16 autowin promo there, or for less than 250 bucks the score a try in the first 5 minutes autowin (or a mix of the two)

Good with my few weeks off and will post a few of my fav spots

I loved the idea of the Dragons this week too as a fade on the Cowboys but they dropped Dufty and Cowboys got some players back so leaving it alone

Cowboys and Dragons will fight a few other sides for the wooden spoon next year

Lol when would I spend my $30 in Asianconnect? Still not decided though

Got anything for the granny,

Not really. Am on o42.5 -116 Manly/Souths this week and Storm -7.5 -111, got on both early but they've steamed a bit since in the NRL

AFL no idea, market seems about right with Dees small favs

des 7.5 favs. wouldn't call that small...

live a little and come to the AFL fdark side man!

It’sssssssss TIME!

The Nerdlingers United AFL ( Aussie rules) footy tipping comp is back!
This years it’s bigger, It’s badder and we have more players than EVER in the league where you can play for chance to win the coveted trophy!

For the Loser The shame and the hatred of receiving the Golden Shitter Trophy for being the shitest tipper in the comp.

Sign up from the link below!

https://www.footytips.com.au/comps/N...ping_comp_2020

Gonna keep record of my footy bets here.

Manly vs Penrith
Multi - manly to win, over 41.5 points, Tom Trbojevic anytime try scorer

$30 at $5 potential collect = $150

Well not a good start, going to continue bets as $10 being a unit

Current P/l -3u

Today's bets

1u at $1.87 Cronulla to win
1u at $2.40 Cronulla to lead at half time and win

Peace

UGH...not this NRL **** again. you got any AFL?

i got 3 on right now for AFL

lol i bet hawks to win and cover. YEWWW

Congrats on the win

I'm prob not gonna post this year, had a big first year and a not as crash hot second half of second year, am still betting it but not gonna bother posting but if anyone ever wants to know what i'm on for a game feel free to PM me

GL all

I will post that I expect Penrith to be back to back premiers if they're not missing key troops due to injury during the finals series

i was just tailing for small amounts like $10 a bet for a fun sweat but really enjoyed your posts in the past years

your presence here will be missed and hope you reconsider

either way glgl

Ok sure i'll post occasionally but not gonna bother with exact record keeping at this stage or specific bets I want just general sides and totals I lean etc

Had a nice win on Penrith ML today

Season started badly with a 1-4 week in r1 but won a little r2, broke even or so r3 and 2-0 with one no bet after 3 games this round.

I like Warriors +2.5 (or ML +125 or so, but I think I prefer the points if it crosses 2) and Roosters ML -200 or better for tomorrow or to about -5.5 if either available; Warriors one still is at some books not sure on Roosters

Storm/Bulldogs comes down to wet or dry. Dry weather and -15.5 is solid. Wet weather and i'll either pass or look for +16.5

Think the line is about right for Dragons/Eels, maybe the over if it's dry idk but been a very unders-y season so far as teams adjust to the new rules with penalties inside own 40 instead of 6 to go now

Storm ML will win, spread depends on weather imo

Had a nice day so far went Manly last minute (i'm a huge non believer in the Raiders this year, but Manly had been iffy prior to today too) and Warriors got up. Roosters doing ok early.

I have a 3 leg parlay w/ one done from today's game into Storm ML and Eels ML for tomorrow, Dragons made some absolutely ridiculous lineup changes dropping Sloan who's arguably been their best player this year and putting a player who isn't a half in at five-eighth. Eels are gonna beat them now imo no idea how much by could be 2 or 30 but confident both favs win tomorrow.

he is risen

glad to see you posting

idk if you pay attention to crowdsource syndicate but i've been trying to crack pga this year, thus far decent results considering most of the time it's the model vs essentially closing lines - wouldn't tail it if you like money though as sample size too small and win rate too low to rule out that i'm button clicking

glgl with the golf - the issue these days for me isn't so much winning as getting max bang for my buck per account/account preservation - obviously I can get on at sharper books regardless, and when I get a square one it's all about maximising the eventual balance when the account is cut off eg I can make a ton of 3-5% nrl bets, or a much smaller number of [insert niche sport here with much larger edge] bets

Nice day today though

I like the Eels to -9.5 or moneyline to low -3xx or so tomorrow, Dragons made a bunch of garbage lineup choices and what could have been a competitive game is now a game they will lose. The backlines are relatively close still, although the Eels have a much better spine (spine is players with the jersey 1/6/7/9 for those who aren't familiar w NRL who play key positions)

Storm will win and can be parlay fodder, esp for books that have parlay boosts, but the price is too low for ML by itself - I do have them in one parlay though. Will probably back their spread to -15.5 if it's dry or, or if it's wet may look for a bulldogs team total under buying across to u12.5 possibly even though Storm should destroy them if it's wet that's so many points with the rule changes this year (games will be lower scoring than last year for those doing modelling due to rule changes all data pre round 1 this year is now worthless) - Bulldogs at +16.5 or more would start looking tempting if it's raining just before kickoff.

If anyone wants a simple ML parlay if you can get Storm and Eels ML parlayed at better than -200 it's fine. I really, really don't expect any upsets tomorrow.

Also glad you are back in whatever form btw

Bricked on Newcastle yesterday granted I got to it early on the Trbojevic out news, but their 2 first half injuries+Ponga HIA effectively ended the game early, Knights looked like they might fight back then fell apart late

Have the Warriors today, especially if AFB is a late in, if he's out I make the Warriors small favs and if he's in moderate favs

2nd game idk what to make of it, I have some Roosters from opening lines but don't really like either side at current it's just so many points and it looks like Haas not going to be suspended until next week

Later in the round I don't mind Penrith or Bulldogs TT under if 10.5 is avail, or even a long priced prop on the Bulldogs to score 0.

Other favs should win although I think the Titans 7.5 might be a bit high, same for Wests +17.5 kind of even though I really rate the Sharks this year it's a huge spread and shouldn't be anywhere near as big as Penrith/Bulldogs. If +18.5 became available on Wests i'd consider it. I think I prefer a Bulldogs TT under to Penrith covering in some capacity

Dragons/Souths i'd have taken Dragons when they were +10.5 except their coach is a ****ing moron who can't pick a side so leaving that game alone as I don't rate Souths much this year but Hook is absolutely worthless at picking a team and persisting with Mbye 1/Bird 6 is unbelievably bad, I faded them last week and the Dragons played bad with multiple players out of optimal position and they're persisting with the bad selections now, but Souths are not as good this year as last so gonna pass

Storm win but idk if they cover, line seems about right. Same with Roosters

Sharks are going to win too but if the line gets to 18.5 that's probably too many.

Fav spot of the week from here is probably the Warriors tonight at -125 or better pre lineups or if Fonua-Blake is in to -135 or better or if he's out to -110 or so

Second fav spot from here is either Penrith in some capacity or Canterbury's team total under in some capacity (obv correlated)

I have some Storm -9.5 -154 and some moneyline closing a parlay today, second game market likes Souths but I think both teams are overrated, Souths because they're overrated and St George because their coach has no idea to pick a team and has left 2 out of 4 of their optimal spine members out of the side

I don't mind Titans +7.5 third game although I like it more if it's wet than dry; they're my local team it rained all morning but is dry now although some clouds still around with a few hours til the game. I'd make the Eels -6 or so about the fair price, disclaimer might be biased as a Titans fan. We're definitely underdogs but live imo

Storm could win by anything from 1-50 or so but I think they win so got an altline I liked so they should win on two try wins not needing a three try win and also some moneyline closing a parlay of mine from yesterday

Tomorrow's games I like either Penrith or a Canterbury team total under around 10.5ish or prop Canterbury to score 0 if price is reasonable

Ended up taking some Bulldogs to score 0 at +4xx

Fortunately got on Sharks -17.5 when Laurie was a late covid out, wouldn't have taken them but losing fullback just before the game hugely disruptive to a bad team like Wests. Didn't love it and sized down a bit but always nice to get a W. Got a ton of Panthers moneyline closing out some parlays for the week even at their price I can't see how they lose 1 in 10 times. If they played 100 times I think they'd only lose games where they have a player sent off.

Am on some Penrith -21.5 and Souths/Bulldogs u40.5 today (I still like current lines but closer to -23.5 and u39.5 now at most altho some books may still have u40.5)

Got some leans for later in wk but not set yet will post when I am