I initially was thinking -140 but revised it down to -125 with lodge being probably in which has since been confirmed and the market at the time of being a pickem but maybe this is gonna steam big not just mildly after all.
I added on some eels h2h at about -107 average to go with my +1.5 pretty sure they close shorter as the sharp money comes in I'm expecting on the same side as me plus the public realises that fifita and pangai aren't playing
I think you underestimate how much pangai and far more importantly fifita are to brisbane. They'd arguably be 0-3 without fifita. The eels actually won the forwards battle outright plus had better offloads too. The broncos can't win vs top 8sides without their full strength pack. When they get their full strength pack back they'll finish sonewhere from 6th to 10th probably but eels are def the better side. At full strength it's a pickem at Suncorp but the broncos were the side well below full strength today
Took Dragons +1.5 -167 for Saturday, managed to cash out my initial -166 ml since it was on 365 for free and rebet it at the higher value altline I found elsewhere, managed to get a ton on too.
Actually could have had about -160 if I got it a few hours earlier too but was waiting on Eels game to grade as account was all in on that and didn't think it'd move, it did slightly but still way good imo, I expect the Dragons to close at like -175 or something and be in good vs the market if I had to guess that's about where it winds up.
Market seems to like the overs on all the games with the rule changes and to be honest i'm leaning towards a high scoring round too but will treat it on a game by game basis. My gut instinct is that the Titans get crushed by the Cowboys but as a Titans fan I probably won't bet it and will cheer for my team, they have made a positive change trialling Fogarty at halfback, if he's NRL ready and gels with Taylor they might make a game of it, but on the other hand, they've failed to cover the spread 11 games in a row so there's that, I very much know how Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions fans always feel as a Gold Coast sports fan, our NRL and AFL franchises are both 0-11 in their last 11 atm and the Titans haven't even covered the spread in any of those games although they'll start to improve under Holbrook as he's a much better coach and they could be decent again by 2022 once they get rid of their bad contracts.
Will prob just trust the market for Roosters/Rabbitohs. Have a mild lean to the Storm but I missed the -149 available a couple days ago and don't want to pay -16x really, will keep an eye out for props or mispriced altlines. Would have bet Sharks pre-Xerri, now gonna stay away. On paper the Sharks even without Xerri match up well but with the steam to Tigers it's hard to say if it's sharp or people being like 'Xerri failed a drug test auto fade'. Weird game, Sharks are way more talented on paper even without him but the Tigers have a lot more heart and the Sharks are ridiculous underperformers in close games over the past year or so.
1-0 +1u so far in thread with Eels bet may as well keep track if there's any interest this NRL/AFL/Super Rugby seasons. Dragons +1.5 -167 an official play since I have more than a unit on, and i'm happy with their ml to -170ish or thereabouts as being the right side and a pass after that. Don't get me wrong the Dragons backline is subpar but the Warriors backline isn't great other than RTS either, and the Dragons halves and especially forwards are much better. I expect the Dragons pack to carry them to victory in this one, probably by something like two tries. -3.5 spread is fine too but by -4 I prefer paying the vig to take them straight up. The Warriors will fight for the wooden spoon with the Bulldogs and Titans and the Dragons will finish exactly 13th, but there is a decent gap down from them to the bottom three clubs - the Bulldogs can defend a bit but their attack is garbage, the Titans have some potential to improve but have been a mess and half the squad is just collecting a paycheck until they are put out to pasture in the English Super League, too many injuries and they need to work out a new system with a new coach and the Warriors are just a basket case, other than RTS their side is just garbage this year + injuries + dealing with effectively playing all away matches this year can't help them even with no fans.
I'll probably be on Manly in some capacity against the Bulldogs they're just way better and the Bulldogs have no points in them against a defence of Manly's caliber. Not sure about the spread vs ML, might consider the Bulldogs team total under IF the round isn't mega high scoring with the rule changes but it's probably an unders game with a decently high total, I feel like it's the sort of game Manly win 22-6 a lot unless the rule changes make games flow like today; despite it having 40 points it really should have had 46-50 a lot today.
Initially liked Knights +2.5 but have backed off the lean a lot prob just gonna trust the market on gameday on that one and happily end up on whichever side the sharp money comes for if I get a good number
Anyway, best spot of round 1 was the Eels and second best spot is the Dragons, then after that nothing stands out at first glance unless we get some late players out or whatever those will be my only two big bets but i'll probably get some smaller bets on the other games at some point
This is going to be a weird season, the Titans, Warriors and Bulldogs are not going to win very many games against clubs other than each other - I can see them beating the Dragons, Tigers and Sharks occasionally maybe, or if mid tier clubs have injuries but it's rare that three clubs seasons are a complete write off after two rounds.
If the Dragons somehow lose this week it's four clubs seasons that are a write off, but I think their squad has enough talent to win 8 games this year or so even though their coaching is garbage and that should be enough to finish 12th or 13th given how poor the bottom three clubs are.
I think both favs get the job done today taking some altlines
Roosters -1.5 -200
Cowboys -1.5 -238
Confident both are good. Both still available on aus books. Not as good as Eels or Dragons bets so have sized smaller, but happy with them both. I've sized WAY down on Cowboys, because i'm a Titans fan and made the bet small enough that i'm still gonna cheer for the Titans, but I do think it's value. Bit bigger on Roosters one, but still smaller than Eels/Dragons bets were. For purposes of thread record i'll track every bet as if they're the same size to win 1u though. Would prob only go a half unit on todays games, and a full unit on Dragons one if anyone wants to tail for sweats or whatever.
Roosters - I don't rate Wayne Bennett as a coach anymore. That's gonna be an unpopular opinion, some people think he's second only to Bellamy, but I think he's average at best. They had off-field drama with Latrell during lockdown and James Roberts who is out due to his personal issues and Cody Walker who is also out due to being a dickhead who kicks people while being filmed.
The biggest loss by far is Walker, Walker/Reynolds is a legit and long-term successful halves combo, Dargan is a complete nobody so it's a big step down from Cody Walker. Roberts out is a small loss but not that big a deal since the Bunnies are still fine 1-5
I've always rated the Bunnies on paper but they underperform a lot like against the Broncos, sure they only lost by 4 but they always looked like losing. The Roosters have had a poor start to the season too but the Panthers played great and the Manly loss was by 1 to a top side who also played great. Souths have played decently vs the Roosters in recent times but are still only 2-3 in their last 5 against the Roosters and that's with them being at their absolute best for a few of those games. I'm not sure they will be today
At the end of the day, the Roosters want this SO much, they're defending champs on a 0-2 start, the media is questioning whether they're has beens and the Rabbitohs have a whole host of off-field distractions and two key players out, plus Burgess retired during the off season.
Roosters are only missing Taukaeiho who is a good forward but their 8-13 are all still top level players.
At the end of the day, the Bunnies always look dangerous when they move the ball deep and wide, but will be missing the pace of Roberts at center and more importantly all of the playmaking will fall to Reynolds which will make them easier to defend and more predictable. Cook, Murray and Reynolds would need an out of this world game for the Bunnies to win with their ranks slightly depleted and the Roosters have a slightly better bench too with the increased pace of the game with rule changes
Unless Latrell can somehow be more of a gamebreaker than Tedesco is i'm just not sure where the Bunnies points come from with an unsettled halves combo and less pace than usual and a turbulent last few weeks off the field. It could be close, or it could be the Roosters by 30, but the Bunnies aren't going to win in convincing fashion pretty much ever and the Roosters would need to underperform badly to lose this one.
I've backed the Bunnies spread a few times in recent seasons against the Roosters but have no desire to here. My gut instinct is that the Roosters cover the -7.5, but I prefer the safety of the alt line as they'll win by 2-4-6-7 a ton as well and I doubt this one is going to come down to a field goal very often especially with the rule changes tiring squads out on the back end.
Cowboys vs Titans, well... as a Titans fan, this just isn't the game that breaks their 11 match losing streak. I think they're live at home in round 6 against the Dragons although underdogs, and the first game they'll start as favourites and should win is round 9 against the Warriors. There's a legit chance both the Titans and Warriors will be 0-8 going into that game.
The Titans are away, against a team that played better in r2 than r1 and are underrated on paper, Yes, the Cowboys are missing Morgan (and Cooper who doesn't really matter) but they still have the better back line and the better forwards and while I personally am a fan of giving Fogarty a run at halfback the titans still have a debutante at halfback so they're not even clearly better there given how out of for Taylor is.
I sized this one down to like 0.2u or so just so that I can cheer for my side and not feel bad, but if I didn't want to ruin my sweat it's certainly a good price there is no way the Titans win this game unless they show some drastic improvement from rounds 1 and 2, and they're without Brimson who is their best back which doesn't help at all. I want them to win, but the Cowboys just crushing them is far more likely, they win somewhere between 1 in 4-5 times probably so at -238 for -1.5 i'm pretty happy with the Cowboys being the value side
Betfair has -335 as the 'fair' ML price which is probably close to correct, there is no way the Cowboys win by 1 anywhere near often enough to justify that discrepancy in price.
For what it's worth the main Cowboys spread is probably +EV too, definitely if any -7.5 still available, at 8.5 its iffy but i'd still lean that side. To be honest a fair line is probably more like -10.5 and I say that as a diehard fan of the other team.
I know most of this post is just stream of consciousness rambling but I doubt there are many full time bettors here who put in decent volume on Aussie sport so if any Americans/Europeans are just betting for action I hope some of it helps.
If I had to guess i'd say that the Cowboys close about -370 novig on the exchanges/sharp books and Roosters close about -250 novig on the moneylines and the lines will close at Cowboys -10 or -10.5 and Roosters -8 approximately
Titans here to play today by the look of things. Glad I didn't mash Cowboys hard or i'd be a sad Titans fan. Still the right side pregame for sure, closed -10.5 from opening -7.5 but they're bringing it today, nailed the closing ml price almost exactly in what I predicted
Titans really should have been about tied at half time on game flow but considering they're down 20 now mid 2nd half that ones well and truly done
Still a win on the Cowboys altline, albeit a small one, obv the -1.5 is well and truly home at this point
Roosters next plz for a 3/3 start to the round (I lean Roosters at -7.5 if anyone wnts the main spread but have only taken the alt line myself as i'm very confident they win but less confident it's a blowout)
Nice start to the round, 3-0 +3u Roosters get it done pretty easily in the end.
I have a feeling i'll wind up on the Storm in some capacity but none of the current lines are appealing, I nearly took that -149 ml earlier in the week but didn't. I kind of still want the Sharks even with Xerri out but they might just not be mentally in it, gonna see what game day markets think. That's the only spot this week where I may be fading steam if I do but undecided, the rest of the games i've been on the overall steam side, granted in the Eels and Dragons cases the steam hadn't started yet when I bet it
And I have St George +1.5 -167 locked in for a pile; pretty happy when them straight up to -170ish or spread to -3.5, to be honest i'm pretty sure -4 and maybe even -4.5 are good too or some inflated margins like -12.5 @ +2xx etc
Will update with what I end up on tomorrow
Are any Americans/Euros watching rugby league for the first time? If anyone likes this, Rugby 7s is an absolute MUST watch, it's an international competition and USA/Canada/various European countries have decent squads. AFL is slightly more spectator friendly too, but league is pretty good too in an era of no major contact sports running
Couldn't disagree more strongly with that blog post the reason it's not watched more heavily is because major tv networks don't show it so it's relegated to fringe pay tv channels etc I don't think I've ever showed 7s to a sports fan and had them outright dislike it as a spectator whereas that's happened plenty for 15s
Obv it's great to bet it's the only sport I have a 10 percent Roi in lifetime over a huge sample but as a fan it's just phenomenal to watch too. I love 15s as well but 7s is just so much more enjoyable to watch in general
Not to mention the structure of the game allows non traditional rugby nations like the USA and Kenya and Canada etc to compete more easily as you need a much smaller squad of good players it's basically a completely different sport to 15s in terms of the skillset required to succeed. Watching any of the high level close Fiji vs South Africa finals from the past few years is a good starting point for anyone looking to get into the sport.
Also with the USA team being good as opposed to in 15s being garbage it would make sense for rugby to use 7s to try and break into the USA market if they could get a good deal with a TV network people actually have etc
Guys like Perry Baker and Carlin Isles could be household names if Americans actually got to watch 7s as a properly promoted sport
Added one more spot today warriors u18.5 -125 for the St George game. The +1.5 -167 I got earlier in the week is obv better, the ml is like -190 novig now but I like the warriors under too at numbers bigger than 18 the rule changes make an early penalty goal less likely and the warriors are definitely dogs to score 4 tries here
If anyone can still get up to -5.5 -110 or whatever on st George that's fine too imo they're -5.5 to -6 at most books atm
Major network TV shows 7s in the US. It's been shown on NBC pretty much every year multiple times for the past decade between the CRC and the Vegas 7s. It's also shown on major TV channels in most rugby-playing countries but no one cares because it's an obvious sideshow where the people show up to party and get **** faced in costumes with little regard for the game on the field. This is true at literally every 7s event in the world. When World Rugby tried to clamp down on the party aspect in some places, people stopped showing up, with Wellington and London being prime examples of this.
Again, great betting sport but generally not interesting outside of a weekend a year to most rugby fans, including those in non-traditional countries. There's a reason there has been zero 7s pro circuit outside of the international 7s tour. If people were actually interested, there'd be a 7s equivalent of the IPL in cricket.
Lastly, the article is on the money about 7s diverting resources from real rugby in non-traditional rugby countries. The countries who have focused on 15s, such as Georgia and Japan, have reaped the benefits. The ones who have tried to split resources have fallen behind, with only the US even remotely managing it.
I guess maybe I'm biased as the rare huge 7s fan. Didn't realise it was being shown on a major channel in the us, in Australia which is a more union heavy country it only gets shown on pay tv. 7s might be my favourite sport as a spectator whereas union might be more like 5th or 6th. I guess maybe my personal experience is biased as I've introduced a few close friends to 7s and it's become one of their favourite sports on multiple occasions and those same people aren't huge union 15s fans despite watching it on occasion
I don't see the problem with both exosting if the codes are allowed to share talent though guys like senatla and speckman are playing super rugby and also finding time to play 7s for saf when they're not busy and radradra plays in Europe and makes time to play for Fiji when he can etc and the players themselves can just decide whether they want to focus on 15s or 7s.
Lucky to escape that game with a 1-1, we lose the +1.5 -167 (closed -190ish ml lol) but the Warriors u18.5 -125 holds just
I have Tigers +2 -110 and Storm/Raiders u38.5 -110 for next two
I like the Storm too, but they've steamed too hard to take at this point
Tigers line is -118 at Pinny so because I didn't post it an hour or so when I bet it i'll use that for grading purposes
4-1 +2.33u so far
Gonna be on Manly and/or Bulldogs under in some capacity tomorrow, maybe the under too. Not sure about Panthers/Knights still. Originally liked Knights, but have backed off the lean a bit, will see what the market does
I actually have Manly closing a parlay w some other games but the current price is -270 so let's go with that. I just don't see how they lose to the Bulldogs without an uncharacteristically awful performance in attack to be honest 10 points might be enough to beat the Bulldogs
Also adding Bulldogs TT u16.5 -118, still available on at least one book
Not sure on Knights/Panthers. Initial gut was Knights but backed off my read a bit and prob just gonna trust the late steam. Panthers have no halves which is an immense problem for them, but are slightly better overall across the rest of the park in terms of attacking potential.
For now we're adding
Bulldogs TT u16.5 -118
Manly ml -270
I also quite like the u40.5 but drastically prefer the Bulldogs TT under so we'll go with that
Decided to go with my original Knights +2.5 -110 lean for first game. I make the game a flip, Panthers may have a structural deficit from Cleary missing their halves combo is really bad. Forwards are close, tiny edge Panthers in the backs but Newcastle's halves combo is a lot better, I think this game is a pickem and markets come back to +2 at some sharp spots so took 2.5 while available.
Manly are just miles better than the Bulldogs everywhere I have them winning 10-3 in the player vs player matchup against opposite numbers, they have a miles better halves combo and spine in general, their forward pack is even better and so is their defense which is the Bulldogs strongest point. I don't see the Bulldogs scoring more than 3 tries max, and 1-2 is more likely with 0 not being out of the question. I think Manly win this one easily, the -7.5 spread is fine too for those who want to play a -110 line but i've paid the vig to take them straight up because while it may be a low scoring grind sometime I see Manly coming out on top a huge % of the time I think they're probably closer to -400 here than -270 for the straight up win and to be honest they should prob be more like -10 in the spread too
If anyone wants an introduction to the NRL that's not a bad game to watch. A team that loses their two star players and half their bench comes back from 0-14 to 14-14, then both sides have a ton of chances to win it, then overtime also scoreless.
Staggs, their best back is out. Fifita and Pangai are still out. The Roosters are still arguably the best team in the comp on paper and seem to be back in form.
I think the Broncos get flogged a lot but they're at home I guess even with no fans they might be competitive for a while. Shame I missed the -6 opener out at -7.5 now, which I still like but just taking the moneyline
Knights +8.5 -111 vs Raiders
Raiders are ridiculously good, but McCullogh comes in at hooker, he's average but fine there and more importantly Pearce is listed in the side and Ponga returns from suspension. I think with all the heart they showed against the Panthers that they keep it competitive and cover. Raiders are clear favs to win, but the Knights will make a game of it
I loved the Cowboys line initially but with Taumalolo out i'll wait and see what market does there too
On paper I think I like Wests to cover as I can't back the Titans against anyone atm although the Titans were a lot better in the first half at least I guess than previous weeks sooner or later they'll have a better game
Mild lean to the Warriors at 6.5 without doing proper analysis, they seem super motivated atm but on paper Penrith are better even after a garbage performance against the Knights and without Cleary
Tempted by the Storm and by Manly at 4 or more but gonna wait and see what market dos on both. Eels are very good on paper but Manly +4 vs anyone can't be too bad.
In theory St George -111 is a steal but my god were they hideous last week they're so badly coached the Bulldogs have no attack though who knows. Maybe getting Foran back will fix the Bulldogs attack a bit i'll leave it alone for now
Bets for now
Roosters ml -250
Knights +8.5 -111
Will probably bet some of my other leans as well but waiting til closer to games in case of any lineup changes team news major steam etc
edit: adding one more actually for the first game, Roosters lead at half time and win -118.
i remember catching a few afl games and betting on them last year. **** is wild, dont really understand all the rules still but i got the jist of the game. the scores are so high, but i found a lot of times the underdog wouldnt lose by much, so like team X would be a -41.5 fav or something but rarely would they sustain that lead or even reach it, at least in the games i bet on. seemed fairly competitive still even if it was a top team vs a lower ranked one.
was fun to watch and toss low stakes $ on, but the times are just ****ed for me to view it, like 2am and 4am or some ****. with so few sports around id prolly enjoy trying to watch it again.
lmao i remember looking for AFL streams, and i found a sketchy free one and its just loaded with aussie ppl in the chat.
i swear i was the only non aussie in the chatroom, was asking all these questions about the sport and they were just laughing at me thinking i was a aussie troll posing as a canadian.... but i guess foreigners watching afl are rare or something? i just wanted to learn the sport lol.