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Old 05-14-2021, 07:38 AM   #1351
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Ok I thought it'd be a small gain for overs but it's a huge gain

New pars gonna be like 48 or soemthing ridic I'm not gonna back any Unders in dry weather all year as books take a while to catch up they've only now caught up to last year's overs adjustments with like 44 par from prev 38.5 40 etc

Will vary by teams and weather obv but new rules prob worth 4 pts for overs granted we'll need to see a bigger sample to see if we see sin bins every game or today is just a one off
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Old 05-14-2021, 07:44 AM   #1352
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

^ yeah lv it and im an overs fein so lv it more ...good stuff again mate
looks like im heading for 3 bounus bets unless Coates can jag a late try against the grain
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Old 05-14-2021, 08:08 AM   #1353
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Cro/Sou o43.5 -120
Syd/NQ o43.5 -118

Pretty simple; load unders

Not so sure about Dogs ability to score pts tho so may leave that one but taking the overs with the overteam games
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Old 05-14-2021, 08:08 AM   #1354
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

AFL= bonus bet back
NRL 1= bonus bet back
NRL 2 = bonus bet back

for a completely unrelated off topic bonus round and just for fun sweatage ....split one bonus bets into 2 x $25 and now on in golf:
Will Zalatoris top ten $7
Scottie Scheffle to win @ 19.00

well done again Mr Swoopage and bring on tmozzaaa!
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Old 05-14-2021, 08:12 AM   #1355
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Roosters game o7.5 tries -119
Rabbitohs game o7.5 tries -130

#overs

that is all

edit: realised better prices still available so updated. They're still around if anyone wants
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Old 05-14-2021, 08:17 AM   #1356
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

You knoiw what

Raiders/Bulldogs o7.5 tries -125

Not overs teams in theory. I think every game is overs right now though. Least good of the three.

Also Raiders/Bulldogs o42.5 -110
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Old 05-14-2021, 08:21 AM   #1357
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

im salivating as an over monster ....im going to be on all of the above ..plus the usual multi madness closer to kick offs
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Old 05-14-2021, 08:26 AM   #1358
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

ya its nice overs the sharp side atm as thats rarely the case but the market hasnt caught up to rule changes

proceed w caution on dogs/raiders, but i have a feeling almost every game is overs atm

other two woulda been overs game anwyay imo
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Old 05-14-2021, 08:39 AM   #1359
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

im mortgaging my daughter (if i had one) ...but yeah seems like some really ripe spots

Last edited by Dreadnaught; 05-14-2021 at 08:40 AM. Reason: ooops srry if that was in bad taste to anyone #cancel
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Old 05-14-2021, 09:50 PM   #1360
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Roosters -11.5 -125
Souths -9.5 -125

I just think current game conditions favour blowouts/favs covering/overs
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Old 05-15-2021, 12:25 PM   #1361
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Meh should have stuck with the two overs games at least we scooped both

Obv that load unders post earlier followed by a ton of overs bets should read load overs; typo

Market slowly catching up but not there yet

Want to see lineups before firing tomorrow. I suspect i'll be on Storm/over, probably no bet Panthers/Titans to enjoy it as a fan and the lines seem about right even w/ new rules. First game idk, Eels are a slight unders team, Warriors an overs team but 47.5 is getting up towards the actual new par. If the Warriors would start Reece Walsh i'd be kind of tempted as decent dogs.

For now no bets (Storm has moved against heavily due to Munster/Grant/Smith out, but if Papen's back I prob fire them anyway) but i'll get some tomorrow

Also LOL Bulldogs, blowing a 12-8 lead when it was 13v11 then 13v12 for the rest of the match


69-51-1

+3.31u for season

Roosters -11.5 -125
Souths -9.5 -125
Roosters game o7.5 tries -119
Rabbitohs game o7.5 tries -130
Cro/Sou o43.5 -120
Syd/NQ o43.5 -118
Manly/Broncos o45.5 -110
Manly/Broncos o7.5 tries -154

All wins

Raiders/Bulldogs o7.5 tries -125
Raiders/Bulldogs o42.5 -110
Knights -3.5 -110
Knights ML -138

All losses


77-55-1

+6.48u for season

nothing pending yet
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Old 05-16-2021, 01:41 AM   #1362
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Like overs too but Storm more

Storm -15.5 -110
Storm -2.5 tries -133

Let's do it

Missed the good number on totals so rolling w Storm

If anyone can get Storm o29.5 its good too but think its gone
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Old 05-16-2021, 03:51 AM   #1363
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

edit: bad math
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Old 05-16-2021, 03:56 AM   #1364
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

my edit bad math post was a storm inplay spot I recommended but didn't bet that i thought needed them to score once but now theyre murdering them anyway so w/e lol

Storm bets both safe now

79-55-1

+8.48u for season
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Old 05-16-2021, 04:17 AM   #1365
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Panthers/Titans o45.5 -124

It's overs round

Disclaimer this is 2nd worst overs game after Bulldogs/Raiders which lost but blind betting overs w new rules is prob fine

Panthers are an unders side tho kinda
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Old 05-16-2021, 07:37 AM   #1366
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

forgot to update the bets for the weekend.

Kansas City Royals @ 2.00 lost. -1U
Under (176.5) @ 1.88 Essendon v Fremantle won +1.88U
Richmond @ 1.53 won +1.55U
Chelsea @ 1.50 fa cup lost. -1U

overall I'm up 0.91U

not sure if I'm using the units right? i bet 10 bucks each game.
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Old 05-16-2021, 08:35 AM   #1367
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

You're not quite

On favourites, you lose the risk amount in american odds or win a unit

On underdogs, you win the 'to win' amount in units or lose a unit

In your case

Kansas City Royals @ 2.00 lost. -1U
Under (176.5) @ 1.88 Essendon v Fremantle won +1u
Richmond @ 1.53 won +1u
Chelsea @ 1.50 fa cup lost. -2U

Since in Chelsea's case at 1.50 (-200) is risking 2 units to win 1 unit

Richmond's case (1.53) is -188 or so, so risking 1.88u to win 1u

Ess under, 1.88 is -113 or so, so risking 1.13u to win 1u

Royals is 2.00 (+100) so risking 1u to win 1u

If you bet on let's say Bontorin in the UFC today at 2.40 (one of the underdog bets I made today on diff sport that won) that is +140 so risking 1u to win 1.4u (lose 1u or win 1.4u in this case win 1.4)

It's complicated but generally 'base units' means risking x to win a unit on favs, or risking a unit to win x on underdogs
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Old 05-16-2021, 08:36 AM   #1368
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Panthers/Titans o45.5 -124 wins


79-55-1
+8.48u for season
80-55-1 +9.48u for season

Overs round, 7/8 overs get up. Gonna be interesting to see if they change the rules back before next week if not we're in for an overs kind of year with massive blowout wins the norm
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Old 05-17-2021, 02:21 AM   #1369
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

^nice work again Mr Swoopage ...hoping the rules stay , good weather for the weekends everywhere and totals dont correct for a few more weeks
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Old 05-18-2021, 12:50 AM   #1370
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Cronulla Sharks ML -179

Wanted Pen/Roosters and over/few other spots too but missed the early lines so just gonna wait til closer to game now
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Old 05-19-2021, 05:45 AM   #1371
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
You're not quite

On favourites, you lose the risk amount in american odds or win a unit

On underdogs, you win the 'to win' amount in units or lose a unit

In your case

Kansas City Royals @ 2.00 lost. -1U
Under (176.5) @ 1.88 Essendon v Fremantle won +1u
Richmond @ 1.53 won +1u
Chelsea @ 1.50 fa cup lost. -2U

Since in Chelsea's case at 1.50 (-200) is risking 2 units to win 1 unit

Richmond's case (1.53) is -188 or so, so risking 1.88u to win 1u

Ess under, 1.88 is -113 or so, so risking 1.13u to win 1u

Royals is 2.00 (+100) so risking 1u to win 1u

If you bet on let's say Bontorin in the UFC today at 2.40 (one of the underdog bets I made today on diff sport that won) that is +140 so risking 1u to win 1.4u (lose 1u or win 1.4u in this case win 1.4)

It's complicated but generally 'base units' means risking x to win a unit on favs, or risking a unit to win x on underdogs
i sort of get it but I don't get why Chelsea is 2 units
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Old 05-19-2021, 06:19 AM   #1372
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Because in order to win 1 unit at 1.50 odds, you need to risk 2 units to win 1

Does that make sense?

If you risk 1 unit at 1.50 odds you only win half a unit
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Old 05-20-2021, 05:21 AM   #1373
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Market is all Cowboys atm but I can't help but want Knights at this price

No bet for now because market disagrees so strongly with my personal read that this is closer on paper even w all the Knights injuries
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Old 05-20-2021, 05:36 AM   #1374
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Bit of late Knights money

Gonna back my read

Knights +7.5 -119

Let's do it
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Old 05-20-2021, 06:27 AM   #1375
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

lol #oversonly evidently
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