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Old 06-04-2018, 03:22 AM   #101
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 12
St. Kilda +32.5
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Old 06-04-2018, 05:54 PM   #102
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 12
North Melbourne +15.5 (Topsport)
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Old 06-07-2018, 05:03 AM   #103
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 12
Fremantle +18.5
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Old 06-07-2018, 07:48 AM   #104
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 12
Brisbane +9.5
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Old 06-07-2018, 03:59 PM   #105
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 12
Port v Richmond - o145.5
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Old 06-09-2018, 07:42 PM   #106
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Brisbane v Essendon - u189.5
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Old 06-11-2018, 06:11 PM   #107
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 13
Carlton +12.5
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Old 06-11-2018, 06:55 PM   #108
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 13
West Coast +10.5
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Old 06-11-2018, 06:59 PM   #109
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 13
West Coast ML (1u $2.45)
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Old 06-11-2018, 07:15 PM   #110
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 13
St. Kilda -3.5 (b365)
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Old 06-12-2018, 05:27 AM   #111
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 13
Hawthorn -6.5
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Old 06-13-2018, 03:26 AM   #112
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 13
Geelong v Richmond - u152.5
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Old 06-13-2018, 08:30 PM   #113
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 13
Gold Coast v St. Kilda - u169.5
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Old 06-14-2018, 12:36 AM   #114
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 13
Port v Bulldogs - o137.5
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Old 06-15-2018, 05:23 AM   #115
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 13
West Coast +14.5
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Old 06-17-2018, 01:11 AM   #116
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 13
Richmond -9.5
Richmond o69.5
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Old 06-19-2018, 03:02 AM   #117
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 14
Hawthorn -48.5
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Old 06-20-2018, 05:54 AM   #118
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 14
Port v Melbourne - o167.5 (b365)
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Old 06-20-2018, 09:50 PM   #119
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 14
West Coast v Essendon - o158.5 (b365)
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Old 06-21-2018, 06:04 AM   #120
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 14
West Coast -20.5
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Old 06-23-2018, 04:44 AM   #121
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Round 14
North Melbourne -26.5
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Old 05-27-2020, 03:52 AM   #122
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Nrl starts again tommorow.. Brisbane Broncos tomorrow are a great price at a $1.90 based on the form of first 2 rounds even though it was a month and a half ago but its still relevant. Parra played the 2 worst teams in the comp the first 2 rounds really struggled against the bulldogs got bullied in the middle and only won because bulldogs halves couldn't capitalize on field advantage, they slapped up the Titans round 2 but every team slaps up the Titans so you cant take much from that game. Broncos on the other hand played the Cowboys week 1 destroyed them up the middle and they did that to a top 8 pack, They then played Souths who were predicted top 4 side and beat them pretty comfortable regardless of the score being close souths just had a late rally at the end but were never any chance.. Parramatta have a pretty trash forward pack compared to Brisbane who are arguably the best pack in the comp.. Games are won in the middle and Milford and Brodie Croft on the back of that are going to carve up.. Brisbane by 4 best bet is on the Money Line though at a $1.90..
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Old 05-27-2020, 04:03 AM   #123
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

I strongly disagree with almost everything in the above post and have a unit and a half on the Eels +1.5 for tomorrow (I think a small amount of it is on the h2h line but most of it's on +1.5 -112)

No crowds lower Broncos home field advantage

Fifita and Pangai are out, two of the Broncos three best forwards and Lodge, their 4th best, is a game time decision. The forwards are where they're better than the Eels on paper and with the listed lineups the packs are very close on paper and the Eels have a huge edge in the outside backs and I would argue their halves are at least as good as the Broncos.

Eels weren't super impressive against the Bulldogs I agree although they didn't concede any tries so you can't fault their defense despite the Bulldogs ineptitude in attack and they did get the job done. Titans game was more the Titans folding mentally after infinite penalties and pressure when things got tough but can't fault the Eels there winning by tons when given the opportunity (i'm a Titans fan)

Souths played absolutely horrible against the Broncos (who had a stronger side than they have for r3) and honestly the Cowboys played pretty bad too against them in r1 plus Fifita had a game winning performance that game and he's out for this one. The Broncos did legit look like killers against the Cowboys but again if you take Pangai and Fifita out of their side they probably lose that one. Brown out for the Eels doesn't hurt anywhere near as much as Pangai or Fifita let alone both of them plus possibly Lodge.

I honestly think the Eels should be -125 favs here or so h2h and was very happy to get them at +1.5. I think they're going to close about -110 favs novig and at -1.5 or so on topsport/betfair or whatever our benchmark for the sharpest line is and i'd still have taken them at -110 if I had to pick a side.

Also Croft is not good, Milford, Staggs, Haas and arguable Carrigan are the only players where the Broncos have a head to head advantage if we're looking at the individual players 1 to 13 against their opposite number and I suppose you could make a case that Oates is as good as Sivo although he hasn't been for the past year or so

I have some Dragons h2h -166 and am likely to play a -1.5 altline or something there @ -145ish or something similar, might fire the Dragons 13+ boosted line @ +300 as well. It's concerning that they have a bad coach and a losing culture in recent times but the Warriors are a complete mess right now, the Dragons were on the way to winning in both r1-2 before folding late but the Warriors have scored all of one try in two games and just don't look threatening in attack; their forward line and halves are garbage compared to the Dragons (I do have the Dragons as about the 12 seed of 16 clubs but there's a BIG gap from them to the Warriors). The Dragons outside backs are not good, but other than RTS, the Warriors don't have good outside backs either. I don't think there's a single player in the Warriors halves or forward pack who is clearly better than their opposite number. Their outside backs are slightly better overall, yes, but that won't be enough unless they play vastly better than they did in rounds 1-2.

Have a few other leans but haven't bet yet gonna wait for final squads and to see what the markets doing etc if people care i'll post what i'm on, have about a 4% roi across the last 4 seasons or so betting almost every match it's not one of my best sports but it's certainly not one of my worst either

The next NRL game is about 25 hours from the time of this post for my bored European/American friends who are missing contact sport - 8 games in total between Thursday and Sunday.

AFL returns June 11 as well.

For any aussie low stakes punters there are some sick +EV promos for the guys betting like 25-200 bucks per game on the aussie corporate books feel free to hit me up for advice on how to use them you can bet every match with zero knowledge of the game if you stick to the best promo lines and print; granted at small stakes only.

For the international guys, use topsport.com.au and betfair as your best indicator of the 'true' price on game day if you're just blindly betting for sweats on offshore books that are slow to adjust to market price and you'll do fine on average if you get decent numbers vs their no vig lines - Pinny limits aren't real for NRL since they left the aus market and should be ignored.

Last edited by SwoopAE; 05-27-2020 at 04:21 AM.
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Old 05-27-2020, 04:43 AM   #124
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
I strongly disagree with everything in the above post and am huge on the Eels +1.5 for tomorrow

No crowds lower Broncos home field advantage

Fifita and Pangai are out, two of the Broncos three best forwards and Lodge, their 4th best, is a game time decision

Eels weren't super impressive against the Bulldogs and the Titans game was more the Titans folding mentally when things got tough but can't fault the Eels there

Souths played absolutely horrible against the Broncos (who had a stronger side than they have for r3) and honestly the Cowboys played pretty bad too plus Fifita had a game winning performance that game and he's out for this one.

I honestly think the Eels should be -125 favs here or so h2h and was very happy to get them at +1.5

Also Croft is not good, Milford, Staggs, Haas and arguable Carrigan are the only players where the Broncos have a head to head advantage if we're looking at the individual players 1 to 13 against their opposite number and I suppose you could make a case that Oates is as good as Sivo although he hasn't been for the past year or so

I have some Dragons h2h -166 and am likely to play a -1.5 altline or something there @ -145ish or something similar, might fire the Dragons 13+ boosted line @ +300 as well.

Have a few other leans but haven't bet yet gonna wait for final squads and to see what the markets doing etc

But yeah I saw that and just had to post that I have a large bet on the other side of that game, granted at a slightly better number (I believe market has a pickem now at most books may still be some +1.5 out there idk)
Lodge is playing he will replace Bullemor on match day. Even with Fifita out and if Lodge doesn't play they still have a superior pack imo especially with nathan Brown out which is a huge loss for Parra, Parra's bench is pretty lol bad as well.. The only place Parra are Superior 1-17 is in the backline they have great 1-5 and thats about it, Moses and Dylan Brown are not better than Croft and Milford on individual talent (my opinion) and we still don't know how their combination will work but Croft taking the pressure of Milford is pretty Dangerous considering he can just worry about being a traditional running 5/8 and Croft can do the Traditional Halfback role..

Junior Paulo

Shaun Lane

Ryan Matterson

Marata Niukore

Brad Takairangi

Ray Stone

Kane Evans

Peni Terepo

The only forwards out of that pack Id feed is Paulo and Matterson... RCG and Kane Evans in your front row rotation is not good..

Im Probably not going to touch the rest of the games not confident in any other my other picks Might have a small bet on the Tigers only reason being Sharks might be a little rattled with the Xerri doping **** going on..

Good luck for the weekend man, Its good to have the footy back..
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Old 05-27-2020, 04:47 AM   #125
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

I agree with you on Dragons being good Value but its hard for me to put money on A mary coached team so usually stay away from them..
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