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Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

04-09-2021 , 02:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
The market seems to be with Port so far with their price shortening. I don't have any worthwhile opinion beyond 'both teams are good' but I wouldn't be lining up to back Richmond at this stage given the early moneys gone the other way (granted steam is less accurate in the AFL than NRL/Super Rugby in general)

Do whatever you want in that regards I don't have anything useful to add

I actually kind of hate today's slate of games, hard to predict compared to recent times
I want to put money on this game cos I work till 6 and I thought the game started on the 4.40 but but it's 5.50 so I'll pass..

Wanted something to sweat at work
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-09-2021 , 03:26 AM
To be clear Manly are still bad and lose a lot, but the market loves them today and I was already thinking before that happened if any underdogs win this week, Manly are a prime candidate

Their halves being way, way better gives them a chance if their forwards can match pace with the Warriors minus three key forwards
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-09-2021 , 04:11 AM
swinging again ...all with the bonus bet back 1 leg miss offering

NRL - Warriors v Eagles
Ken Maumalo Anytime Tryscorer
New Zealand Warriors Head to Head
Over (36.5)Alternative Total Match Points
@2.72

NRL- Pen v Canb
Stephen Crichton Anytime Tryscorer
Over (26.5)Alternative Total Match Points
Penrith Panthers (+14.5)Pick Your Own Line
@$3.00

AFL - Rich v Port
Dan HoustonTo Get 20 or More Disposals
Mitch Georgiades Any Time Goal Scorer
Kane LambertTo Get 20 or More Disposals
Jake AartsAny Time Goal Scorer
@$3.10
&
Darcy Byrne-JonesTo Get 20 or More Disposals
Robbie Gray Any Time Goal Scorer
Jayden Short To Get 20 or More Disposals
Jason Castagna Any Time Goal Scorer
@$4.00
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-09-2021 , 05:47 AM
Taking a Penrith Panthers into Wests Tigers multi for game 2 at -113

gl us
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-09-2021 , 06:02 AM
nice work on manly mate
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-09-2021 , 06:07 AM
Cheers, now let's go Panthers
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-09-2021 , 06:14 AM
I missed the tigers picks got any for tomorrow?
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-09-2021 , 07:00 AM
go panthers! 18-6 at the half

Afl to the half ...possession getters looking strong but nothing better when 2 of your goal kickers have 3 and 2 shots respectively on goal and results are in ........bupkis!

lets go second halves (sic)
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-09-2021 , 08:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyLuke01
I missed the tigers picks got any for tomorrow?
The Tigers I bet on are the NRL Wests Tigers not AFL Tigers

I am on the Storm as previously posted tomorrow (although the number I got is gone) and I lean the Roosters just due to the backline skill disparity, although the Sharks have a ton of heart so gonna wait and see what the market does first.

Titans/Knights will depend on late outs etc as both players have a ton of key players under an injury cloud. Titans should win as the Knights are missing more key players due to injury although they get Ponga back and 8.5 is a lot of points. I'm a Titans fan and going to the game so I won't be betting against them but don't really want to back them either at the current prices. Knights are legit underrated; but completely ruined by injuries atm their bench is garbage.

I'm on the Wests Tigers for Sunday (ml to about -300 or spread to -9.5 is fine), and no bet yet Eels/Dragons
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-09-2021 , 08:58 AM
36-13 +17.98u

Manly win and Manly cover for a combined 2-0 +3u

38-13 +20.98u for season

Pending

Storm -22.5 -115
Wests Tigers ML/Penrith ML parlay -113

Will probably get a few more tomorrow

Most tempted by Roosters, Sharks/Roosters over and keep an eye out for late outs/steam etc in the Knights/Titans game either way since a ton of players from both teams under an injury cloud, more so on Knights side. Obv already got Storm. Will keep an eye on Union and AFL but slightly less keen when i'm so focused on watching every minute of the NRL season/capping as well as monitoring markets as there are bigger edges to be had imo
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-09-2021 , 09:04 AM
well done once again swoop, i sadly took a look at those odds and barely nudged the ml bet

was looking at my pending action and it would appear I somehow have a small amount on the titans -7.5, must have misclicked it or something

and what's the deal with super rugby au, is it more difficult to cap?
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-09-2021 , 10:12 AM
^yep sick stuff again Mr Swoop..UTFM

for prosperity my results tonight = +2.1U (with a caveats out the ying yang....$50 units with one leg missed equals moneys back )

yesterday -1.2
today +2.1
=+.9

next
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-09-2021 , 07:54 PM
Think I just like all 3 favs today. Titans into roosters parlay -117 and we have the storm spread already
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-09-2021 , 07:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
and what's the deal with super rugby au, is it more difficult to cap?
Not really but haven't had time.to watch any this year between moving and watching all NRL tape that's 16h a week just watching NRL without any time for analysis capping betting or other sport

Super rugby with all 5 nations was def easier to cap but it's still fine I just haven't had much time for.it

If I had to guess reds want it more today and this year but not following as closely as usual so no bet
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-09-2021 , 11:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
well done once again swoop, i sadly took a look at those odds and barely nudged the ml bet

was looking at my pending action and it would appear I somehow have a small amount on the titans -7.5, must have misclicked it or something

and what's the deal with super rugby au, is it more difficult to cap?
man i missed clicked on buddy franklin to be the first goal scorer lucky it was for half a unit. lol

that's what i get for the boss coming around lol
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-09-2021 , 11:41 PM
where da afl picks!
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-10-2021 , 02:26 AM
For those that don't alrdy have it max wests in whatever capacity

Taumalolo out and McGuire
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-10-2021 , 02:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyLuke01
where da afl picks!
Ok wce st Kilda u174.5 -110 there we go
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-10-2021 , 02:48 AM
I know we have Wests closing parlay alrdy but let's add Wests -345 ml and -9.5 -124 while available

Cowboys key outs Wests gonna crush them

Storm annihilation up next so far so good titans
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-10-2021 , 02:57 AM
There goes the last of the Wests steam
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-10-2021 , 04:27 AM
One more roosters game, roosters Lead HT and win -143
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-10-2021 , 05:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
Ok wce st Kilda u174.5 -110 there we go
OK great thanks.

Didn't bet this game. Looking at Carlton va sun's tonight but yeah not much value there.

Might just bet the over or something
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-10-2021 , 09:30 AM
you got any picks for freo game tomorrow

apparently, it's raining here... so I'm thinking of betting the under but it's 150.5 soooo
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-10-2021 , 09:39 AM
Hope you avoided it lol glad you missed that under - I didn't have a real opinion but you asked for a spot and market was leaning under there

Anyway
38-13 +20.98u for season

-1.1u AFL under
-1.43 Roosters ht win
+1u Storm
+1u Titans/Roosters

40-15 +20.45u for season

Pending

Penrith ML (w) /Wests ML parlay -113
Wests ML -345
Wests -9.5 -124

They're out to -12.5 now, it's the memorial round for one of their club's greatest legends who passed this week; the Cowboys are in disarray with one of their star players medically retired and another wanting an exit from his long term deal, and another key forward wants out and multiple players are injured. Wests are only a lower-mid table team, but they're still a world above this Cowboys side who are on par with the Bulldogs for worst team, and they'll play next week in a match where the losing team will often get the wooden spoon. Bulldogs have less talent, but more heart I think.

In reality actually won a bit today cos had more on Storm/Roosters/Titans than anything else and was small on the AFL so that was nice. Running way above expectation atm even with a big edge, which i'll take after I got pretty wrecked on cricket late last year to the point I stopped betting the sport entirely. League and Union and 7s have been my best sports historically and this NRL season could be on course to pass last season which was my previous best season so hopefully we can pull it off


Onwards to tomorrow, crush please Tigers.
No idea yet Eels/Dragons, Matterson is out, both teams are overrated but Eels are overrated in that I make them the 6 seed and market is treating them like a 4 seed or so atm, and Dragons are 3-1 but are not a top 8 side and have been very fortunate - and Hunt is still out for them, they only won last week because Newcastle's entire team got injured and their other two wins were against bad/out of form teams. I think the Eels win, but the margin is pretty big and the Dragons are less bad than I thought - they're still a lower mid table side though playing a team that will be playing finals football.

I'll try and figure out what I want to do on that game tomorrow afternoon could be some late players in/out etc.

First game if you're not on Wests Tigers you hate money. There were three slam dunk spots this week (Rabbitohs/Storm/Tigers) and while the Storm only barely covered in the end I fully expect they all get up and I would expect them to all cover the opening line spread at the very least. To be honest I expect Wests to win something like 36-12, their defense is too bad to keep even the Cowboys scoreless probably, but they should score 30+ and that's more than enough

If the Cowboys are truly broken Wests could put 40+ on them too. It's very possible.
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote
04-10-2021 , 10:00 AM
Melbourne Demons ML +100 vs Geelong AFL
Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL) Quote

      
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