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Old 04-08-2021, 02:38 AM   #1051
Dreadnaught
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

resistance is futile . ...all have 2 out of 3 money back in bonus bets via SB for first $50

AFL SYD V ESS
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti Any Time Goal Scorer
Over (180.5) Total Game Points - Over/Under
Dyson HeppellTo Get 20 or More Disposals
@$3.10
&
Tom Hickey Any Time Goal Scorer
Samuel Wicks Any Time Goal Scorer
Josh P. Kennedy To Get 20 or More Disposals
@$3.14

NRL
Over (41.5) Alternative Total Match Points
Josh Mansour Anytime Tryscorer
South Sydney Rabbitohs (-6.5)Pick Your Own Line
@ $2.78

same n.b as the ducerator above
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Old 04-08-2021, 03:20 AM   #1052
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Re Souths game today obv both Johnston and Mansour get a try a ton being the wingers, Latrell prob third most often. I try not to get that involved in high vig markets like that though but gl guys
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Old 04-08-2021, 03:24 AM   #1053
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

yeah especially straight after you actual sound betting advice ..lol
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Old 04-08-2021, 03:30 AM   #1054
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Anyone can be a profitable bettor if they're willing to put the work in and not degen random stuff.

Obviously at small stakes it's also fine to just bet for enjoyment though too, I used to do that before I started taking betting seriously around 2015ish and was a breakeven low stakes bettor etc
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Old 04-08-2021, 03:39 AM   #1055
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

i hear ya and im definitely a rec at this stage

getting -16.5 early on the rabbits is gold with it currently being -21.5 .......middle opportunity or no?
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Old 04-08-2021, 04:15 AM   #1056
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

It's still possible to print EV in high vig markets.

For example, racing markets can take 15-30% vig across the aggregate, but you may know a certain horse is well overs.

It depends if the market knows what you know.

Although, with my any time try scorers, it's much more recreational/ for a sweat.

It is very hard to model though. So, perhaps market vig is unevenly distributed.
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Old 04-08-2021, 04:24 AM   #1057
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

adding NRL
Latrell Mitchell Anytime Tryscorer
Over (39.5)Alternative Total Match Points
South Sydney Rabbitohs (-8.5)Pick Your Own Line
@$2.80

GL guys!
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Old 04-08-2021, 04:33 AM   #1058
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

@Dreadnaught

Understand that multibets compound your edge/vig:

If you are paying 10% market vig on each leg, you'll be paying 0.9*0.9*0.9 = -27.1% vig on the 3 leg multi

If you have 10% edge on each leg, however, you will compound your edge:
1.1*1.1*1.1 = +33.1% edge on the 3 leg multi
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Old 04-08-2021, 04:44 AM   #1059
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

thanks Ducer .....note i am only playing these due to the miss one leg money back in bonus bets for first $50 (up to 3 refunds for every NRL and AFL game this week on SB)
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Old 04-08-2021, 06:53 AM   #1060
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

It's fine w/ the SB rebate just take one short priced leg and two longish ideally as correlated as possible and it's super +EV @ small stakes up to the 50 dollar limit
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Old 04-08-2021, 07:01 AM   #1061
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

^yep ....im doing one long ($1.80-$1.90) and two shorties ($1.25 - $1.35) to get to as close to $3.00 as possible ....and yeah im small stakes (unit is $50-$100) so with the rebates it just seems like i cant be not gaining EV
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Old 04-08-2021, 07:10 AM   #1062
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

go bunnies !
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Old 04-08-2021, 07:15 AM   #1063
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

L. Mitchell score
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Old 04-08-2021, 08:08 AM   #1064
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

shocker for me ...4 units risked return 2.8

well done ducer and swoop
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Old 04-08-2021, 08:11 AM   #1065
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

35-12 +18.10u for season
36-13 +17.98u after NRL win/AFL loss today

Glad i'm sizing up NRL this year relative to other sports due to bigger edge

Anyone who didn't back the Storm/Bunnies opener this week idk what to say. Not often you see double digit edges on mainstream sport

Pending Storm -22.5 -115

Frustrating on the AFL fast paced 1h and then a big slowdown to not even get a sweat after being ahead

I see myself being on Penrith tomorrow probably but not sure in what context yet ml spread lead ht win etc

First game i'm not sure. I'm lower on Warriors than most, but without Tom Trbojevic and half their forwards injured Manly are a mess atm. Manly have actually come in slightly but so hard to back them or any big underdog til they show us something which they haven't this year granted they've mostly played elite teams so far

I have Souths as the firm 3 seed atm (behind Panthers as a clear 1 and Storm at full strength as 2 despite their losses so far they've been understrength)
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Old 04-08-2021, 08:31 AM   #1066
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Nice game from Latrell btw Mr. Duce

Tomorrow's a tough one. I can't see any way I don't end up on Penrith but I struggle to get a read on Warriors games so will probably trust the market for the first one
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Old 04-08-2021, 09:21 AM   #1067
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Yeah, great game by Latrell.

Not too sure on any other wagers for NRL weekend, happy with Papenhuyzen any time vs Dogs.

Will follow your reads on other games. I see Panthers winning, but don't like betting against Raiders (esp at short odds).

Well done on grabbing that early price on Rabbitohs Line, that was a clear print.
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Old 04-08-2021, 09:47 PM   #1068
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreadnaught View Post
i hear ya and im definitely a rec at this stage

getting -16.5 early on the rabbits is gold with it currently being -21.5 .......middle opportunity or no?
Just because something can be profitably middled doesn't mean it should be if holding the bet is more +Ev

Like storm are -28.5 now at some books but I wouldn't be lining up to back the Bulldogs til like +36 or so
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Old 04-08-2021, 09:50 PM   #1069
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Fwiw I hate today's spread too, kinda tempted by raiders now it's crossed to 8.5 but I am very reluctant to bet against a clear 1 seed in Penrith when a lot of people have them on par with teams like Souths when they are clearly better. I think Penrith win by a try or two usually but in a season of favs I'm reluctant to fade a team that just doesn't lose

Warriors manly I kinda want over due to the sized leaky d but I'm so scared manlys offense will **** the bed if I do. Will decide later I guess.

Panthers raiders is an unders game but the total at sub 38 is just too low to back so I'll decide later on that too maybe we'll have some late lineup adjustments in one or both games that creates value. I like some of the other games later in the round more than today atm tho
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Old 04-08-2021, 11:56 PM   #1070
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
Luke, this is worth 100x more than your friend's "Penguins are good"

I was late to the party on that one. Put money on Jordan speith and Jason day to win the masters.

Im thinking Richmond to be Port tonight what you think?
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Old 04-09-2021, 01:55 AM   #1071
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

The market seems to be with Port so far with their price shortening. I don't have any worthwhile opinion beyond 'both teams are good' but I wouldn't be lining up to back Richmond at this stage given the early moneys gone the other way (granted steam is less accurate in the AFL than NRL/Super Rugby in general)

Do whatever you want in that regards I don't have anything useful to add

I actually kind of hate today's slate of games, hard to predict compared to recent times
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Old 04-09-2021, 02:37 AM   #1072
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

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Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
i mean even the bad teams will win a bunch, but don't listen to that friend anymore, pit was indeed very good a few years ago but literally fired their gm mid season this year because he said the position was untenable because their roster had turned into mush because they are capped out and they need to trade out their stars while they can get anything back and rebuild and ownership said "nope we have crosby and malkin we will never give up"

literally half the team doesn't belong in the nhl, no depth at all and their top players aren't the world beaters they were a few years ago

just kindly nod your head and ignore any sports advice from that guy, he's trading on hype that expired 3 years ago


I'm not listening to him for picks. It was more a **** it alright pick
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Old 04-09-2021, 02:39 AM   #1073
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Manly +200
Manly +7.5 -115

Decided to roll with my first dog in ages today. Manly have far, far better halves and while the Warriors are better elsehwere, the market is breaking in Manly's favour and they've become underrated due to getting flogged by good teams. Warriors have Tuivasa-Sheck but other than that there isn't much of a difference between the two teams not quite enough to justify +200 or more than a converted try

I've been resisting betting the Warriors all week just thinking this was closer on paper. I'm so reluctant to take an underdog but i've decided to here. If they get flogged, no more underdogs for me for a while. Gun to head I think the Warriors win, but I don't think they win more than two thirds of the time.

Pretty sure I wind up on Penrith in the late game but not 100% as it is a bit short gonna see what the market does etc

Last edited by SwoopAE; 04-09-2021 at 03:04 AM.
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Old 04-09-2021, 02:43 AM   #1074
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreadnaught View Post
thanks Ducer .....note i am only playing these due to the miss one leg money back in bonus bets for first $50 (up to 3 refunds for every NRL and AFL game this week on SB)
Might have to get on these and put a few on for a fee games.

We need less nrl and more afl imo. I'm from the West I don't even know how to watch the games here
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Old 04-09-2021, 02:44 AM   #1075
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreadnaught View Post
^yep ....im doing one long ($1.80-$1.90) and two shorties ($1.25 - $1.35) to get to as close to $3.00 as possible ....and yeah im small stakes (unit is $50-$100) so with the rebates it just seems like i cant be not gaining EV
That's not small my units are 10 dollars a bet
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