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Old 04-03-2021, 03:32 AM   #1026
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Sick run....more....please sir may I have some more
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Old 04-03-2021, 03:33 AM   #1027
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Market likes Raiders but i'm leaving it. I think -155ish market price is too short. Not taking Titans either tho, as i'm a Titans fan/biased
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Old 04-03-2021, 07:18 AM   #1028
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

You can take both of these at worse prices but recording what I took etc.

You can bet these to like -20 and -26.5 or so pretty comfortably imo

Rabbitohs -16.5 -115
Storm -22.5 -115

For next week's NRL

Just line shop best possible Souths and Storm lines. They'll close at like -22 and -26.5 probably at least and still probably cover, Storm def do and Bunnies probably do

Stuff like lead ht/win etc is fine too, or various stuff correlated towards those two teams covering.

Also taking some Roosters -227 for tomorrow

So we have 3 pending now

Market was right on Raiders today, Titans played fine though just had halfback get injured early. No bet there though

I have some Knights at a good price but not that keen below about -250ish so just going to leave it for thread for tomorrow. But yeah, again, both favourites should win.

There's one other spot i'm def betting next week too but lines not out yet for it

Last edited by SwoopAE; 04-03-2021 at 07:29 AM.
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Old 04-03-2021, 10:10 AM   #1029
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Screw it it's favourite season and without Ben Hunt the Dragons will have no structure and game management. Their only chance is Dufty and Lomax blow the Knights away early via individual brilliance. The Knights have a better playmaker on the bench than either of the Dragons starters. The Dragons only edges are Lomax and Dufty, the halves hooker and pack are just so much better for the Knights and they will take the Dragons to deep waters and drown them via structure and field position winning the battle in the forwards

They could win by 2 or by 30 but I think they get it done and -250 is still available so why not. The Knights are still missing their two key backs in Ponga and Best but that simply doesn't matter here because the Dragons forward pack will get rolled and their halves have no playmaking compared to the Knights halves. If the Dragons win, it will be because of individual brilliance from two players, that is their only chance. If you number up 6 through 13 for the halves, hooker and pack, the Knights are better number on number all eight guys.

Knights -250

Pending

Knights ML -250
Roosters ML -227
Next week - Storm -22.5 -115
Next week - Rabbitohs -16.5 -115

Spread is fine instead for tomorow's games for those who prefer as well EV is similar at -7.5 and -6.5 or so respectively but i'm happy enough with my moneylines.
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Old 04-04-2021, 07:12 AM   #1030
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Hawthorn Hawks +23.5 -111 AFL (available at a couple books still)

Knights lose Roosters win

Knights only lost due to having 4 key players get injured during the game though so not too worried about that just nasty variance they had no bench for the final quarter of the game lost their halfback in the first half etc
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Old 04-04-2021, 07:14 AM   #1031
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

33-11 +18.65u

34-12 +17.15u for season

Pending Hawks, Souths, Storm bets

Will figure out what I want to do with Eels/Wests tomorrow
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Old 04-04-2021, 08:44 PM   #1032
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

whats going on guys? hope your easter was well. i don't have any pics. but i am here to brag about my weekend.

i put money on brizzy to win and they sneak past.

i put money on the pit penguins ( NHL hockey) and shipped that cos a mate said they were a good team ( did it for lols)

then i money on freo. 3 bets. took freo line and freo to win ( we all know how that went) but i did take the over and just sneaked in so. Then i put moneyline and Line for melb game and crushed it.

so I'm up this weekend man!
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Old 04-04-2021, 08:46 PM   #1033
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

luke, penguins are utter trash this year, half their team doesn't belong in the NHL, they still have 2 of the best players in the game though but they probably won't make the playoffs lol
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Old 04-04-2021, 09:14 PM   #1034
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Taking Eels lead HT and win -161. Not sure if that's better or worse than the spread, probably about the same

Just can't bet against NRL favs atm given the rule changes once a team gets momentum it's so hard for it to swing back against them and Bankwest while 'home' to both teams is more of an Eels fortress than a Tigers fortress

I do think the Eels are overrated slightly this year but they also have their full best side on the park today which helps a lot, and they are still the 6th best team or so and the Tigers about 11th or so.

Looks like a lot of Hawks money came in on the AFL, maybe it's the market adjusting to the perception that Geelong are ageing out of contendership this season given their poor performances so far

FWIW next week I would be shocked if any of the Tigers/Panthers/Titans don't win; Knights are ravaged by injury (but gonna wait til Tuesday for squads to consider betting it), Cowboys suck and while the Raiders are good, Penrith are just much better. Obv Storm win via murder and Rabbitohs should win via murder too

I'm not sold on the Warriors quite; although Manly need to be MUCH better to not get rolled this week. No bet there yet
Eels/Dragons I want to see the Eels win easily today before considering backing them even though I think the Dragons are a bit overrated and def not a real 3-1 team. I still think the Eels may be frauds but i'm open to being wrong about that. Sharks/Roosters is a tough one, obv Roosters favs due to their back line but the Sharks are better than the markets think this year, they play with a lot of heart. I think the overs may be the play in that one possibly. Will see where lines are and weather etc

Just the Souths/Storm early spots, but figured i'd post some early leans this wk

I kind of hope the Tigers lose by 30 today so I can get a really good price on them vs the Cowboys next week

Last edited by SwoopAE; 04-04-2021 at 09:20 PM.
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Old 04-05-2021, 01:39 AM   #1035
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Matterson out for Eels I cashed out (got face, but i'll penalise myself 0.05u to get rid of the Eels lead ht win bet for thread)

Sold off Eels lead HT/win bet

They should still win/cover a lot as meta favours favs atm, but Hipgrave is a huge downgrade from Matterson

No bet again for now may take something soon

Not a disaster or anything if anyone's stuck with the eels bet, still wins a ton, just think it's about neutral ev now

Last edited by SwoopAE; 04-05-2021 at 01:45 AM.
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Old 04-05-2021, 02:28 AM   #1036
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

No bet but come on Eels win by 50 so we get a good price on Tigers next week vs Cowboys lol
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Old 04-05-2021, 04:00 AM   #1037
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Hawks cover, Eels bet penalising myself -0.05u for the cashout even though I sold it at face (and it would have won; but happy with the sell given how game played out; Eels are fake contenders they'll start 7-1 due to soft draw only losing to Raiders probably but then they're gonna hit some hard times when they play good teams)

35-12 +18.10u for season
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Old 04-05-2021, 09:00 AM   #1038
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

I diamondhanded the eels profits

You're just crushing it swoop
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Old 04-06-2021, 12:37 AM   #1039
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Nice diamond hands, the matterson out scared me a bit..

I see the storm are -27.5 and Rabbitohs -21.5 now as expected

I feel so bad for the knights season getting completely derailed by injury but as a titans fan get to benefit from it this week

I lean wests titans penrith but feel no urgency to bet them at current numbers and we get squads later today. Missed the early titans number with the knights injury toll sadly. Eels should win too, warriors only if tom Trbojevic is out if he's back in I may go the other way. Sharks roosters number feels about right if anything I go with the favs again though I legit wouldn't be shocked by a favs win all 8 games round esp if tom trbo is out and Morris is healthy for the roosters

Not gonna hit anything else til squads announced at this stage tho
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Old 04-07-2021, 06:56 AM   #1040
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
luke, penguins are utter trash this year, half their team doesn't belong in the NHL, they still have 2 of the best players in the game though but they probably won't make the playoffs lol
yeah when i took them they won. when i didn't they lost. so :sun:

anyway.

anyone got any pics for this weekend... Sportsbet account is up and I'm looking to splurge
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Old 04-07-2021, 07:08 AM   #1041
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Quote:
Originally Posted by LuckyLuke01 View Post
yeah when i took them they won. when i didn't they lost. so :sun:

anyway.

anyone got any pics for this weekend... Sportsbet account is up and I'm looking to splurge
i mean even the bad teams will win a bunch, but don't listen to that friend anymore, pit was indeed very good a few years ago but literally fired their gm mid season this year because he said the position was untenable because their roster had turned into mush because they are capped out and they need to trade out their stars while they can get anything back and rebuild and ownership said "nope we have crosby and malkin we will never give up"

literally half the team doesn't belong in the nhl, no depth at all and their top players aren't the world beaters they were a few years ago

just kindly nod your head and ignore any sports advice from that guy, he's trading on hype that expired 3 years ago
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Old 04-07-2021, 07:19 AM   #1042
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

here is some terrible advice ...but sportsbet has 2 out of 3(or one leg missed on 3+leg multis) on all AFL and NRL multis on every game this week = money back up to $50 in bonus bets and up to 3 refund bonus bets per match
this gona hurt as now with some historical data and the added EV i cannot resist

Last edited by Dreadnaught; 04-07-2021 at 07:29 AM. Reason: resistance is futile
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Old 04-07-2021, 07:48 AM   #1043
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

The promos are always nice for value. Neds often has no vig markets for nrl/afl (they're scum with KYC tho so be careful to get verified prior to depositing + they track devices not just IPs). 365 has lead x auto win uncapped bonuses which add some roi. SB atm have that score in first x mins auto win promos for nrl/afl, pointsbet have some promos too, and yeah the one leg back multis can be good too.

For smaller stakes bettors (2-3 fig units) you should def have accounts everywhere to take advantage of the promos.

Side now how ****ing dreadful is the NBL I can't wait for NRL tomorrow for our weekly feast on favourite blow-out wins
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Old 04-07-2021, 07:50 AM   #1044
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

yeah nbl was horrible tonight ...lukily(stupidly) my points man didnt even play
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Old 04-07-2021, 08:03 AM   #1045
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

btw the nbl player points markets are ridiculous(y impossible) .... buy 1 point off avg and suck up 30% more vig .....stand clear
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Old 04-07-2021, 10:10 AM   #1046
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

I don't bet much NBL, it frustrates me a lot. Anyway onto tomorrow, we already have the Souths spread in the NRL which has steamed 5 points since we took it. For anyone getting on late -3.5 tries line is slightly better than -21.5 even with Reynolds kicking given multiple penalty goals are unlikely given the likely blowout if anyone's looking to get on late. Happy with my early spread though so just that for now. I kinda lean over but market's leaning under so gonna wait and see what the market does tomorrow first re totals.

In the AFL i'm going with o177.5 -112 for Essendon/Sydney

Both teams have gone over that total in all 3 games this year, Swans attack is flying with their young guys, Bombers are wildly inconsistent but can score and their defense can be iffy. Feels like it should be high scoring, weather forecast seems to think the rain will be gone by morning giving the field all afternoon to dry up and nearly no chance of rain during the game. Should be overs
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Old 04-07-2021, 10:30 AM   #1047
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

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In the AFL i'm going with o177.5 -112 for Essendon/Sydney
Luke, this is worth 100x more than your friend's "Penguins are good"
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Old 04-07-2021, 11:53 AM   #1048
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

My NRL is worth more than my AFL tips imo but yeah anything I post here is probably +EV and still available at the time I bet it (incl that one although the Souths/Storm lines from earlier in the week have moved). In general i'm excellent at NRL and Rugby 7s, and decentish at other stuff but no better than the market as a whole is at predicting outcomes.

As a general rule if you're just starting out you want to beat the no vig line on Topsport in general (for major sport anyway, minor leagues the market might be manipulated from time to time/less safe to auto trust steam) and follow betfair if it's liquid in the market you're betting in the Australian market eg at least a few thousand dollars deep

For example if you see a 1.63/1.64 back lay spread on betfair you want to get 1.64+ on that market assuming the market is deep (if theres 10k both sides its deep, 25 dollars both sides not so much/info is worthless)

or if you see or if you see 1.80/2.05 on Topsport for example we look to get better than the no vig line (1.87/2.15 in that case) although you also want to be WITH steam not against usually eg you want to be on the side that is being bet in to a shorter price. So for example using this week's NRL games, the Storm have come in from -22.5 to -27.5, if you can cross a useful number (even numbers in NRL so let's say 26; and you can get -25.5 at 1.90) that would be a good bet. But you may not necessarily want to take +28 even though that's better than the topsport number, because you're betting against steam, and the steam is usually generated by sharp punters getting their money down early

And that's how you win at betting with zero useful knowledge in the Australian market, those couple paragraphs above, eventually you might learn to handicap some sports or learn some ways to improve your edge but that is enough to make you better at betting than 99% of random people out there

Btw you may notice topsport now has o180.5 for that AFL spot, but some books out there are still offering 177.5 - I don't see how it closes lower than 177.5 unless there is unexpected rain, and if there is I will sell the position tomorrow obv (for all football codes, dry weather is preferable for overs, wet weather for unders)
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Old 04-07-2021, 11:18 PM   #1049
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

^gold ....thanks
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Old 04-08-2021, 02:00 AM   #1050
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

NRL:
L. Mitchell to score + Souths win @ -105 (1.95)
R. Papenhuyzen to score @ -143 (1.70)

n.b. high vig markets
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