Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

[capperchris1]

AFL Round 9
Carlton v Melbourne - u172.5

[capperchris1]

R9: 5/7/0 -2.5u
YTD: 25/20/0 +2.5u
O/A: 225/170/0 +33.04

[capperchris1]

AFL Round 10
West Coast -5.5

[capperchris1]

AFL Round 10
Geelong -46.5

[capperchris1]

AFL Round 10
Brisbane Lions +23.5

[capperchris1]

AFL Round 10
Hawthorn v West Coast - u180.5

[SwoopAE]

Interesting observation i've made this year with the aussie books - Madbookie is generally very square, but their mad lays have not got a single pick in 2018 wrong afaik despite being breakevenish (I don't have the data handy) in 2017. It's gotten to the stage where i'm blind tailing their side as soon as they release a mad lay, they've won something like 10-15 in a row and last week it was a +500 dog, this week it's a +800 dog. The last mad lay they lost was early in the NFL season from memory (and they went 1-1 that weekend) and they've had one almost every week during NRL/AFL and a couple during BBL that have all won. I can only recall two where it steamed against their play this year and both won anyway.

Out of curiosity have you been following that run/do you have the data handy and do you think it's variance or do they have a super sharp trader analysing one market a week or inside info or something?

GL this weekend. I obv have a bunch of bets on but the lines aren't available since i'm just picking off slow movers so there's no point in posting. Interested in hearing an Aussie sharp's thoughts on Madbookie though. I used to give no weight whatsoever to their mad lays picks but this year i'm treating it like legit sharp info, but I have no idea whether that's actually the case or whether they're just running absurdly hot. For a normally square book that bans winners to actually be taking real action and winning though there has to be method to what they're doing and logically it's either they have a sharp analyst or inside info.

[capperchris1]

Very interesting, and thanks for sharing. I honestly have never even been to Madbookie so I've got no idea about their mad lays. But it's pretty impressive. Having said that, no way I hell I'm going to follow a bookies tips.

[capperchris1]

*Fremantle v North Melbourne - u149.5

*Was meant to post yesterday but forgot. Proof of the pick is on other forums and both Twitter and Insta.

[capperchris1]

AFL Round 10
Western Bulldogs +19.5

[capperchris1]

AFL Round 10
Brisbane v Sydney - u180.5 (365)

[capperchris1]

R10: 5/2/0 +2.5u
YTD: 30/22/0 +5.0u
O/A: 230/172/0 +35.54u

[capperchris1]

AFL Round 11
Gold Coast +24.5

[capperchris1]

AFL Round 11
Gold Coast v Geelong - o161.5

[capperchris1]

AFL Round 11
Hawthorn v Port Adelaide - u170.5

[capperchris1]

AFL Round 11
Brisbane Lions +27.5

[capperchris1]

Round 11
North Melbourne team score u101.5 (365)

[capperchris1]

AFL Round 11
Carlton +53.5

[capperchris1]

AFL Round 11
Fremantle +32.5

[capperchris1]

AFL Round 11
Hawthorn +2.5

[capperchris1]

AFL Round 11
Richmond -18.5

[capperchris1]

Round 11
Western Bulldogs +39.5

[capperchris1]

AFL Round 11
RixhmRic team total o91.5

[capperchris1]

Richmond*^^

[capperchris1]

Round 11
North v Brisbane - u180.5