Penriths first 20min of defense is always insane and it's wet
Bulldogs time of first try after 26:30 -111
Bulldogs team total u10.5 -115 (both 365)

I'll get around to fixing grading shortly

Market likes Demons Bombers and Cats steam wise today AFL but I haven't taken any positions yet there

Gonna take Geelong into Essendon parlay +144 afl

Decent steam on both, Geelong should never lose and Essendon are steaming in hard so why not take a parlay instead of taking the Bombers straight

Fwiw I am way more keen on Panthers Dogs under because Panthers have better D than souths and Bulldogs have better D and worse attack than Manly

Gotta mash all unders when NSW is pouring with rain and underwater tho on the games held in NSW

One more AFL multi, Melb Demons into Geelong at -130

GL us

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR713.loop.shtml

A lot of New South Wales is underwater

Saw a bet a guy I know made today, 2 leg multi of tryless match for the two Sydney games, $3.98 to win a million

Going to be an absolute sloshy rain pit for the NSW games today

Ironically id be all over the Souths Manly overs without rain but had to take the unders, Penrith/Bulldogs is an unders game regardless, so loving that I got a few good unders bets there

Ok let's grade some stuff

-1.08u for the Storm Roosters parlay

8-3 +3.64u

Then yesterday

+1u Knights
+1u Knights under
-1.11u Knights over
+1u Western Bulldogs

11-4 +5.53u for season

Pending

Bulldogs TT u10.5 -115
Bulldogs NOT to score a try first 26:30 -111
Raiders ML -213
Titans/Roosters ML parlay -119
Essendon/Geelong ML parlay +144
Melbourne Demons/Geelong ML parlay -130
Bulldogs/Panthers u38.5 -122
Souths/Manly u39.5 -110
Crusaders -1.5 -112

One more

NQ Cowboys ML -154

I don't care they don't have Taumalolo. It hurts and their pack will struggle and their offense is broken to some extent

But this is the Dragons and theyre travelling to North QLD where there will be a rabid fanbase to cheer the Cowboys home

The Dragons are simply awful and their defense is just as bad as the Broncos and should not be winning away against anyone this year. Yes, even the Broncos and Bulldogs and Cowboys without Taumalolo lol

Dufty and to a lesser extent Lomax are good for the Dragons but the rest of their team is just terrible. Their playmakers suck, their hooker sucks, their forwards suck except for Vaughan, they have no heart in defense

Even though i'm low on the Cowboys they should win today

If they don't they're going to be competing for the spoon but I have them finishing about 13th and I think the Dragons finish 15th or 16th a lot

hey mate why would he go tryless match for both games @3.98 when you can get no try in just the bulldogs game alone @ $26.00 ? (i am no doubt missing something as per)

Got a last second sharp tip on Dockers so middled my Melb bet by taking Dockers +15.5 -108 which we will count for thread too (sorry for late notice tip was 2mins before kickoff)

Hopefully Dees win by 1-15

No he went both games tryless game at like 500-1 (pre rain news) early risking 4 dollars or so to win like 998k getting +25000000 lol

It's incredibly unlikely to happen but if you're taking a long range shot at a million ive seen worse

26-1 is a terrible price for a tryless game lol should be at least a few hundred to one

Look at all that glorious rain

I have Penrith in a few parlays, and obviously a bunch of unders and unders related props

Let's get a nice easy low scoring Penrith 22-0 type game please

Bunch of sharp Souths money coming in so i'm taking Souths lead at half and win -139, just don't want to lay the -303 to take them straight up and it could be a low scoring grind. I want to be on Souths in some capacity though due to all the sharp money late. GL Souths and Under

Little bit of Dragons money came in but has eased off. Def not betting on the Dragons will either keep Cowboys or middle it depending what happens late

Adding a new bet
Souths lead HT and win -139

11-4 +5.53u for season

Fremantle +15.5 -108 L
Bulldogs/Panthers u38.5 -122 W
Bulldogs TT u10.5 -115 W
Bulldogs NOT to score a try first 26:30 -111 W (misgraded on my book due to the disallowed try make sure you check your book graded right) W

Few mins left Dogs/Panthers but feels like all three are safe. Will regrade if not

14-5 +7.45u for season

Pending

Raiders ML -213
Titans (w)/Roosters ML parlay -119
Essendon/Geelong ML parlay +144
Melbourne Demons (w)/Geelong ML parlay -130
Souths/Manly u39.5 -110
Crusaders -1.5 -112
Souths lead HT and win -139
Cowboys ML -154

Taking Souths ML -300 as well. Just too much money coming for Souths not to

Moving against the raiders I assume due to rain. Nothing I can do for now but don't take the price I took obv and hold off atm

Souths ml +1u
Geelong kill both parlays -1u and -1.3u
Souths under +1u
Souths lead ht win +1u
Cowboys -1.54u my god their attack is bad lol

14-5 +7.45u becomes
17-8 +6.61u for season

Pending

Raiders
Crusaders -1.5
Roosters titans parlay

Missed the GWS unders steam sadly since they're going to be playing in a rainy slush pit after all today by the look

edging back slightly now who knows just gonna stay away for now since its all weather based and i'm not at the ground/in sydney to know before the market

West Coast Eagles/Gold Coast Suns o172.5 -110

No faith in the Gold Coast defense but they can score points now

No rain in Perth while there's rain all over the East Coast

17-8 +6.61u

Crusaders win

18-8 +7.61u

Late sharp steam broke for raiders which was my lean so fine to take them to the -200 or so available. I got bad price early but holding.

18-8 +7.61u

Roosters win to complete the parlay and raiders win. AFL over misses. AFL can gtfo league and union ftw

Will still post some AFL but like last year the profits coming from league and union

20-9 +8.51u for season

Decent start two weeks into NRL season.

Some exciting games next week

anti steam NBL monday night ....perth v adel ov 177.5 (what could go wrong)

adding adel +12.5

ok for max pain
Daniel JohnsonTo Score 15+ Points
Adelaide 36ers (+12.5)
@2.25

Squads announced for NRL tomorrow

I have some leans for sides, lot of close games on paper this week, obv can't bet any totals until we have a better idea of what the weather will be like but have some stuff I like there if dry too (or obv in certain games if wet)

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