New season (Target beating last year's 35 units between the Aussie codes)

3-0 +3u (eels knights rebels bets all win from yesterday)

Pending

Panthers -9.5 +100
Panthers ml -333
Titans ml -125

I kinda like the roosters and overs but passing for now due to the uncertainty around how goodmanly will.be without Trbojevic

Taking titans ml -125 disclaimer I am a titans fan so biased. Sharp friend of mine likes overs here but I'm not sure I do given titans defense is miles better than the market thinks it is has too many memories of the titans horrible defense under Brennan from 2019.

I'm on some crusaders stuff but the lines I got are gone so not posting

Will probably wind up on the overs for the roosters game with a slight chance of roosters market moved them from -9.5 to -10.5 past 24h

+120 ml is better yeah my sharpest local has +2 -107 and ml +115

Gl if you take any I'm not getting involved in six nations

Fwiw lot of NRL promos around 365 is lead 16 auto win (both sides paid eels game cos of that promo etc) and SB is score a try first 5 mins auto win (both sides paid Knights game because of it etc)

Lot of value to be had

The Betfair steams coming for the titans now tens of thousands trying to get on the titans so that gives me some confidence

Will update thread if I take a spot for roosters manly

Roosters coming in a bit but ml not that attractive so gonna go with an exotic this game roosters score first lead ht and win +110 (365)

Sharp money coming for the roosters here

Glus

3-1 +1.75u after the titans loss. So disappointing their forwards did fine gaining field position but their inability to score was just embarrassing. Too many errors. Warriors did defend well.

New season 4-1 +2.85u after roosters win

The two Panthers bets pending

Shame the titans lost for me as I'm a titans fan but days otherwise going we crusaders covered too although didn't have them for the thread

Nothing on Reds Brumbies atm line seems about right and happy with my panthers players they've steamed in a bit too

what do you know, normally i only tail your losers, this year i've only missed titans thus far!

4-0 with panthers pending

everything coming up rickroll!

Sharks -137 (fine to -145 or so imo neds for quoted price actually got a bunch of -139 myself too to fill up) for NRL tomorrow

Missing Shaun Johnson sucks as he's their best playmaker but the dragons are absolutely garbage this year I can't turn down any non bottom 3 team against them at -137

6-1 +4.85u after Panthers bets win

Just sharks pending atm. I liked Wests at 8.5 but it's gone passing 7.5 will see what the sharp money does tomorrow.

Super rugby blues vs Highlanders o49.5 -120 (neds and lads)

I took 50.5 W lower vig personally as couldn't get set there but it's available so for thread were going to o49.5 -120

50.5 is fine pass by 51.5

7-1 +5.85u for new season after super rugby over wins

I have no idea what to make it this raiders tigers game. Market has the current 7.5 as fair that feels about right. I still kinda lean wests a bit if I had to but leaving it for now since I missed the early 8.5 on them. I do think the raiders win but sort of think it'll be a close game.

Just the sharks pending atm market doesn't love it and I've backed off my big early lean slightly due to sharks halves being iffy and I guess dragons will get some points thru Lomax and Dufty but the sharks forward pack should be better and the dragons are just so bad defensively it's ridiculous

Was originally gonna max it but just going a standard unit for now unless there's major late sharp steam to back me up

8-1 +6.85u

Nice first week

29 units to go to topple the 2020 record. Let's hope week 2 goes as well as week 1

Sick start....good work

Melbourne Storm -213 vs eels

Yes it's at the eels fortress Bankwest but the eels were absolutely horrible against the broncos even though they won by the spread it was due to broncos injuries and a short bench and a second half collapse from the wooden spooners

The storm are a well oiled unit that always brings their a game. Yes the eels beat them once last year but the storm was missing most of their first grade squad it was not a real lineup they were playing

If this touches -5.5 I'll get involved too currently at -6. Straight up though the Storm are just going to win, because they're a much better team it's that simple. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the eels lose by 13 plus this week but happy to be on the moneyline for now

There's one game over I really like but need to wait until closer to the game to ensure there is no rain. I also have a couple other leans but waiting for some market confirmation etc

For the first game on Thursday though we take the storm

Just added raiders -213

Sharks defense is not good enough. That is all

Also added storm into roosters multi at -108

All of them at 365 so far this wk

Pending

Storm ml -213
Raiders ml -213
Storm into roosters parlay -108

I like a total for the souths game but need to wait on game day weather to ensure it's clear or raining etc same applies to all totals this week

Titans fan but can't back them at the spread vs broncos but don't want broncos either. Strong chance that games a no bet for me

Lean knights but markets leaning warriors there early so holding off for now. Undecided and price seems to be improving on side I prefer

Think I like Penrith but the spread is so huge. Might see if I can find a bulldogs TT under at a suitable number (I'd want u12.5 at a good price)

Lean cowboys vs dragons but not laying -200 on the cowboys against anyone even the worst team so passing there for now. Both cowboys and dragons are overrated imo as low as both are already rated

Rain looking too likely for my Souths manly over so passing that. If it clears up I'll consider it but too high a chance of rain and obv not backing overs if it rains

Couldn't find the number i wanted on dogs tt so passing there too for now

Will be easing back a bit in AFL this year but will still get some spots

Crusaders -1.5 -112

Yes the blues are the second best team and are at home

But it's the crusaders -1.5 in a league that now has overtime for draws. At -112. The crusaders are the best club rugby union team in the world by a lot. Any time we get them at close to even money we snap it up

Weather looking too dire at this point for any overs. Disappointing if there's a lot of rain this round.

So rain is enough of an issue to move it down into the bad bet territory but not enough to make unders viable?

swoop will no doubt clarify but my take is since the newish 6 again rule unders generally suck

New rules favour overs but yes if rain is confirmed you can take Unders on some games but too long to go til the games to know re weather we bet them game day

Something has happened with the storm game got some steam my way as expected then a 12c drift someone is out for the storm idk who yet I'll find out tomorrow whether they're a back at the new price. I'm hoping it's the market overreacting to some random forward or or back that isn't Papen or Addo Carr.

Hold off unless you find out the player isn't 1 5 6 7 or 9 and to a lesser extent 13 if any of them are out we reevaluate if it's any other player new better price still fine

I'll update the thread tomorrow just saw the move and am about to sleep etc

Weird still no news about a player out

I guess we get final lineups later today and I'll see which side the big late sharp money comes for

Titans minor steam is interesting. Makes me happy as a fan pretty happy with a no bet there

yeah storm -4.5 looks pretty dam good at the mo without anymore news?

All I can see is rain low total better for dog. No one is out
I like the storm at -200 or better for sure and they're widely available at far better

yeah predicted thunderstorms .....guess thats the 2 point line drift

afl about to kick off!! lets gogogo !

couple of multis for fun

Jack Newnes Any Time Goal Scorer
Daniel RioliAny Time Goal Scorer
Dion PrestiaTo Get 20 or More Disposals
@$3.25


Over (169.5)Total Game Points - Over/Under
Dustin MartinTo Get 20 or More Disposals
Tom J. LynchTo Score 2 or More Goals
@2.90

half time report :

Jack Newnes Any Time Goal Scorer - shocking pick as hardly even played forward need miracle
Daniel RioliAny Time Goal Scorer - W
Dion PrestiaTo Get 20 or More Disposals - 15 to half
@$3.25


Over (169.5)Total Game Points - Over/Under - 95 points to half
Dustin MartinTo Get 20 or More Disposals - 14 to half
Tom J. LynchTo Score 2 or More Goals - 1 to half
@2.90

storm game going to be a slog