Looking forward to the AFL and NRL finals today and tomorrow. Took your picks Geelong and Melbourne for the sweats, let's go!

Best of luck lets hope the weather clears up so we get more enjoyable games (and also since Richmond are a team that plays well in the wet)

Been raining all day in Bris but forecast has it clearing

Been some big unders steam but missed the initial move and leaving it alone since it's steamed even though it's cleared, shoulda got u116.5 early to middle w the o105.5 or w/e it is now but ah well was busy with Union stuff

Its Showtime! GL all!

https://7plus.com.au/watch-live-tv

For any overseas ppl who want to watch the AFL GF starting nowish

Use aus vpn if geolocking issues

If there's interest will post a link for NRL GF too tomorrow

210-147-2 +29.80u

Geelong lose blowing a 22 pt lead, obv I forgot the golden rule of 'Richmond always win in the end'

North Harbour/Auckland under wins fairly easily

Just Cam Smith for Medal and Storm bets pending atm

Let's go Storm

Since it's the grand final let's lock in a second unit on Storm ML this time at -143 the current price with the lead by 16 auto win at bet365 (still available)

Storm ML -139
Storm ML -143 (lead 16 auto win on both bets since they were made at b365, although obv theres basically no chance a team loses a 16 point lead in the grand final given wet pitch etc)
Cam Smith Churchill medal +300

Let's do it

cant ask for a better first half really

Yeah the execution of the Storm was perfect. Great defense, took their chances etc

They don't deserve to be up 22 on flow, maybe 10-12 or so, but they just executed perfectly

My 365 bets have paid out already, have a few on other books though so still need the Storm to win

Cam Smith for the churchill inplay is 3x face value on a +300 bet so it's looking good. He's certainly got it in first half so far esp given final game for Storm prob

Live Churchill prices are Smith 1.12, next closest 21.00 (both Storm halves)

Barring a Panthers comeback which is almost an impossible ask against the Storm, Smith should get it

Sportsbet just payed out my Smith bet already ...sweet

Ya mine's split between SB/365

SB evidently know the fix is in barring a 1.03 or whatever busted Penrith comeback

To be fair despite being up 22-0 Storm don't have an obvious candidate and unless it's overwhelming Smith will get it by default in his likely final game or final at Storm

If it doesn't win but 1/2 books I bet it at paid out no idea how to grade it lol, but it should still win obv anyway

that was insane!
GG mate

What a sweat to finish the season.

Thanks for all the sharp picks Swoop.

You the man, Swoops.

Ul you didn't the Clive Churchill but gg anyway.

Quick question I usually bet just with the tab, don't bet as much sports as I used to mainly just the saturday races but just wondering, do bet 365 and Sportsbet pay out early on alot of stuff or was it a promo.

A lot of stuff check their promos section plus on major events like finals they do it for the PR

My Cam Smith bet paid out early on SB, lost on b365 so no idea how to grade it, i'll just grade the loss I guess as he didn't win it

Crazy after he traded 1.03 in play

212-148-2 +30.80u after Storm bets win but Smith bet bricks (although wins for those who bet it on Sportsbet as they paid it out early)

Will keep throwing some Aus/NZ/SAF super Rugby stuff in here I guess, plus if there is any interest in Big Bash once it starts, plus we have State of Origin for the Rugby League and internationals for Rugby Union etc

Summary: My best NRL season ever, combination of improving capping + running slightly above EV and market reads were also good.

Think i'm about to EV this union season and up small but haven't checked

AFL my sharp mail was very good, the stuff I bet myself/market reads weren't great this season but my sharp info I got from time to time was solid

Overall I think we ran slightly but not heavily above EV, ton of amazing value this season especially in the Rugby League, lot of soft lines, Aus books taking plenty of action on the mainstream codes, 362 bets total in thread for +30.8u is pretty solid, let's hope next League season is as good and hoping to crush the rest of Mitre 10 Cup rugby and Super Rugby Unlocked over the next few weeks til BBL starts

Am also doing pretty well on NFL so far this year but not going to clog up an Aus sport thread w/ stuff that isn't Aus/NZ specific (i'll count South African Rugby/Rugby internationals since that roughly calls under the category of 'sport played mostly in the southern hemisphere'

5-6 years in i've crushed every NRL and Rugby 7s season, AFL I think i've had one losing season and this year probably about even, I might even be down slightly from the poor start. Union I don't think i've had a losing season. Cricket a work in progress, i'm still down this year but also running below EV I think there so it's hard to tell (as opposed to I ran above EV for League even though I crushed it capping wise as well this year). Think i'm at like 2 for 4 for winning years on cricket didn't bet it much the first couple years

MMA I had a poor first half of the year but second half has been great

Anyway, we have State of Origin to come over the next few weeks, NZ Mitre 10 Rugby, some International Union etc should still be at least a few spots a week for the thread.

Congrats on good season Swoop.

What's state of origin? Or is Google my friend

Edit: Ok. Got it!

Think all star game but everyone takes it seriously for Australian Rugby League, players who played their first game in QLD vs players who played their first game in NSW (the two main states provide the overwhelming majority of Rugby League talent in Australia)

Best of 3 series, probably the highest quality of play rugby league matches since it's a legit annual rivalry rather than an exhibition and in the International matches only Tonga/New Zealand/England can compete with Australia whereas basically anyone who makes a state of origin side would walk onto the starting side for any of those nations

NSW are favs this year after a big dominant win last year ended a Queensland dynasty of dominance over the past decade but it is usually very competitive - the average result this year will probably be 2-1 NSW or so, but it's very winnable for QLD if they play well etc although NSW deserve to be favs

Squad list below

NSW Blues squad
Josh Addo-Carr (Melbourne Storm)
Nathan Brown (Parramatta Eels)
Reagan Campbell-Gillard (Parramatta Eels)
Nathan Cleary (Penrith Panthers)
Damien Cook (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
Boyd Cordner (Sydney Roosters)
Nick Cotric (Canberra Raiders)
Angus Crichton (Sydney Roosters)
Stephen Crichton (Penrith Panthers)
Dale Finucane (Melbourne Storm)
Tyson Frizell (St George Illawarra Dragons)
Clint Gutherson (Parramatta Eels)
Payne Haas (Brisbane Broncos)
Luke Keary (Sydney Roosters)
Zac Lomax (St George Illawarra Dragons)
Jarome Luai (Penrith Panthers)
Cameron McInnes (St George Illawarra Dragons)
Cameron Murray (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
Ryan Papenhuyzen (Melbourne Storm)
Junior Paulo (Parramatta Eels)
Daniel Saifiti (Newcastle Knights)
James Tedesco (Sydney Roosters)
Jake Trbojevic (Manly Warringah Sea Eagles)
Daniel Tupou (Sydney Roosters)
Cody Walker (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
Jack Wighton (Canberra Raiders)
Isaah Yeo (Penrith Panthers)

Queensland Maroons squad
Corey Allan (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
Jai Arrow (Gold Coast Titans)
AJ Brimson (Gold Coast Titans)
Kurt Capewell (Penrith Panthers)
Patrick Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos)
Daly Cherry-Evans (Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles)
Xavier Coates (Brisbane Broncos)
Lindsay Collins (Sydney Roosters)
Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (Melbourne Storm)
Moeaki Fotuaika (Gold Coast Titans)
Jake Friend (Sydney Roosters)
Dane Gagai (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
Harry Grant (Wests Tigers/Melbourne Storm)
Coen Hess (North Queensland Cowboys)
Valentine Holmes (North Queensland Cowboys)
Hymel Hunt (Newcastle Knights)
Ben Hunt (St George Illawarra Dragons)
Felise Kaufusi (Melbourne Storm)
Josh Kerr (St George Illawarra Dragons)
Brenko Lee (Melbourne Storm)
Edrick Lee (Newcastle Knights)
Dunamis Lui (Canberra Raiders)
Cameron Munster (Melbourne Storm)
Josh Papalii (Canberra Raiders)
Phillip Sami (Gold Coast Titans)
Jaydn Su’A (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
Christian Welch (Melbourne Storm)

State of Origin is the nutz....bring it on!

Broke down my actual results YTD for some of the sports i've posted ITT

NRL +37u or so
AFL -11u or so
Union +7u or so
Super League -4u or so

Almost exactly matches my units won/lost on posted stuff which is surprising since my actual sizes were all over the place I expected more like a 10u discrepancy in either direction but there wasn't one

Had a great NRL season and ran slightly over EV, a poor first half to the AFL spoiled my season there and def ran under ev, Union prob slightly under EV but fine and Super League was like a 10 game sample so not really statistically relevant

Bay of Plenty -3.5 -118 vs Hawkes Bay, NZ rugby

Pretty phenomenal results Swoops. Congrats, and hope you made a killing!

Cheers

One more

Otago +6.5 NZ rugby -111 vs canterbury

Bit of a drift on Otago middling out with Canterbury -3.5 -138 to effectively sell the position

Ended up on the unders that game but forgot to post it

Hopefully the thread middle gets up

Just the Bay of Plenty spot pending it's -5.5 now so the -3.5 way good for anyone who got it