Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-01-2020, 11:46 AM   #651
fernythrills
veteran
 
fernythrills's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: in the spy shack
Posts: 3,152
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Have been lurking this thread for a while and tailing you occasionally on the NRL stuff, when I can. (I'm sure I'm not the only one).

Just wanted to pop in and show my appreciation. It's been really interesting to hear your thoughts, especially with the great year you've been having.

gl for finals!
fernythrills is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2020, 09:39 PM   #652
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

I kind of want the Roosters but market prefers Panthers today, waiting to see what happens w late line movement/make sure no late outs

I'll be on the Raiders in some capacity or maybe Raiders over tomorrow

Probably Storm in some capacity but idk

and I think the Knights at +8.5 to +10 is probably good but markets been going the other way - market is overreacting to one game with the Souths/Roosters one etc last week and its affecting both sides

I think whoever stays more injury free of the Storm or Roosters probably beats the Panthers in the grand final a lot - both sides have a higher ceiling, but lower floor than the Panthers - the Panthers are the most consistent side

Raiders benefit from a favourable draw getting Sharks in week 1 but cant see them making finals

Eels should do better than they have been on paper but I just don't see them making the grand final either on form. Obviously Sharks are drawing dead, Knights fairly unlikely too but I could see them getting an upset win this week maybe. Souths have a decent ceiling too but lack the consistency to win the four straight they'd need - I think they make the third week sometimes but doubt they make the final and wouldn't be shocked if the Knights upset them.

Basically I expect this week to look something like Roosters +2.5 (although ill leave it if Panthers keep steaming), Raiders -13.5 and o4.5 tries, A Storm altline like -5.5 or -1.5 parlayed with something like Raiders -1.5 (Eels might cover or might get blown out, but Storm will win) and then Knights plus a pile. Knights touched +10 yesterday but back at 9.5 now if I can get 10 or 10.5 i'll have to fire it. I don't really like opposing the market though hence not having fired Roosters or Knights yet going to see what market does after final sides announced etc

In the AFL will probably trust the market and go with Lions plus the pts today has moved from 7.5 to 2.5 but 3.5 is available still so may take some but not going huge or anything

Actually i'll lock in Lions +3.5 -110 now for the AFL today glus

Re NRL, the spot of the week will be Canberra imo, the Sharks are an absolute mess right now without Shaun Johnson and I fully expect them to get obliterated

I also fully plan to fade the Raiders in week 2 especially if they win well against the Sharks and the market overrates them and take whoever loses in week 1 out of Panthers/Roosters
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2020, 10:37 PM   #653
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Taking some Western Bulldogs ML -130 as well for the AFL vs St Kilda
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2020, 11:06 PM   #654
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Canberra Raiders -1.5 -400

They're going to give the Sharks a beatdown never a fan of -4xx etc but I doubt they lose this game more than 1 in 10 times or so and laying the -1.5 for slightly better price than ml

Canberra Raiders TT o4.5 tries -137

Canberra Raiders -13.5 -111
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-01-2020, 11:51 PM   #655
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

194-136-2 +27.17u

Port spot won yesterday

195-136-2 +28.17u

Pending: Lions spread, WB ML, Canberra spots
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2020, 05:38 AM   #656
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Sydney Roosters +2.5 -110

Penrith are great and all, but this is the Roosters, +2.5 points, only missing Radley who's been gone for the season and Friend from full strength

The Roosters at their best are just amazing and crossing 2 is so big, if they lose itll be by 1 or 2 a lot

Let's do it
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2020, 08:08 AM   #657
Dreadnaught
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,783
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

^Spot on!
Dreadnaught is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-02-2020, 08:17 AM   #658
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Nice comeback by the Roosters to lose by 1 and cover after being down 18

Lions do it easy. Both wins today

195-136-2 +28.17u

197-136-2 +30.17u

Pending: Raiders spots, Western Bulldogs
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2020, 05:51 AM   #659
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Melbourne Storm ML -400
Storm/Eels o36.5 -116 (37.5 is fine pass 38)
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2020, 05:52 AM   #660
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

197-136-2 +30.17u

Raiders win by 12 with a sideline conversion off an intercept right on full time feel robbed for my -13.5

Western Bulldogs lose a close one comeback fell short

199-138-2 +29.76u

GL Storm/Overs
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-03-2020, 07:59 AM   #661
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Storm and overs both hit

199-138-2 +29.76u

201-138-2 +31.76u
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-04-2020, 01:11 AM   #662
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Wanted Knights @ +270 or so and +9.5 so badly here but the steam was so relentless on Bunnies I left it and just got some o7.5 tries which I forgot to post

Onwards to next wk
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-04-2020, 04:48 AM   #663
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Lucky I left Knights alone evidently, started great then faded

All four NRL dogs led early this week before folding
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-07-2020, 09:15 AM   #664
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Richmond Tigers ML -323

Prob shoulda posted this earlier in the week but Richmond aren't going to lose to St Kilda at Metricon with their season on the line

Yes St Kilda beat them earlier in the season but Richmond had a depleted side then

Might be by 6, might be by 60, but Richmond get the job done
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2020, 12:32 AM   #665
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Sydney Roosters ML -200 vs Canberra Raiders

The -1.5 is prob better but w/e it's the Roosters at full strength and Canberra have not impressed me this year. It all comes down to this today and I think they win slightly over two thirds of the time so we're just going straight up

On both favs today Sydney Roosters and Richmond Tigers. Let's do it
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2020, 01:33 AM   #666
Dreadnaught
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,783
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

lets gogogogo!

cricket and whatever else we can at the end of both NRL and AFL season yeah?

Last edited by Dreadnaught; 10-09-2020 at 01:34 AM. Reason: speiling is hawd
Dreadnaught is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2020, 02:10 AM   #667
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

NZ Rugby season etc, State of Origin, BBL cricket (I had a relatively poor start to IPL + its at an awful timezone so leaving it alone atm) NBL there's always something on

Rugby 7s is one of my best sports when it's on too but given it's an international sport a lot depends on Covid there

Then before we know it it's NRL/AFL/Super Rugby season again and the cycle continues
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2020, 03:57 AM   #668
Dreadnaught
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,783
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Yeah IPL is volatility city and timezone blows chunks for us

Bring on the rest! love nbl ,cricket and will be with you on the Rugby 7's

You got any AFL / NRL futures live for premierships or any of the medals?
Dreadnaught is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2020, 04:28 AM   #669
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

No futures. Opportunity cost typing up money and require a ton of time consuming capping/analysis etc

I mean if I like something that's +5000 that should be +3000 i'll take it, but taking a +400 spot that should be +350 if it ties up your cash for six months really isn't worth it most of the time and stuff that is -110 that should be -125 definitely isn't worth it if it's tying cash up for the full season not to mention the accounting if you end up having to hold onto limited/banned accounts for months because of one future etc

Let's go Roosters and Tigers

I'm bigger on the Roosters and i've been saying all year the Raiders will get exposed in the finals vs the top 3. Today is the day that happens.
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2020, 04:45 AM   #670
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Betfair in to -250 and -400

No plucky underdogs today. Let's do it
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2020, 06:07 AM   #671
Dreadnaught
old hand
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,783
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

ok to the half Richmond crushing .
Lets lift Roosters! Hopefully half time oranges loaded with win
Dreadnaught is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2020, 07:12 AM   #672
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Disappointing from the Roosters

1-1 -1u today

202-139-2 +30.76u

Storm end the Raiders season next week
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2020, 12:19 AM   #673
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

South Sydney Rabbitohs -9.5 -116 vs Parramatta Eels
South Sydney -1.5 tries -125

I got some Souths ML -270 too myself but its gone so can't post it so just the two above I guess as both still available

I thought the Eels might put up a fight initially until the disaster injury toll and now with Jennings popping for steroids on game day their backline is a mess missing 3 of their 5 starters

Rabbitohs are going to roll them
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2020, 01:47 AM   #674
SwoopAE
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
SwoopAE's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 22,017
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

One more for tomorrow

Australia +17.5 -111 vs New Zealand, Bledisloe Cup Rugby
SwoopAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2020, 02:26 AM   #675
fernythrills
veteran
 
fernythrills's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: in the spy shack
Posts: 3,152
Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
South Sydney Rabbitohs -9.5 -116 vs Parramatta Eels
South Sydney -1.5 tries -125

I got some Souths ML -270 too myself but its gone so can't post it so just the two above I guess as both still available

I thought the Eels might put up a fight initially until the disaster injury toll and now with Jennings popping for steroids on game day their backline is a mess missing 3 of their 5 starters

Rabbitohs are going to roll them
How interesting.

On certain UK books, Souths ML -250 is still available.

I also got some Souths -6 -110 after the Jennings news (best line is now out to -8).

Surprises me to see such a difference across books.

Go the Bunnies!
fernythrills is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:40 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive