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Old 08-04-2020, 03:56 AM   #476
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Also adding Geelong Cats -15.5 -110 for tomorrows game
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Old 08-06-2020, 02:55 AM   #477
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Markets been loving St George due to all the Roosters outs but decided to leave it

Adding

Collingwood Magpies -15.5 -133
Gold Coast Suns +12.5 +100 (13.5 -110 avail too about same ev)

Kinda like Collingwood 1q props but haven't got any yet as they're fast starters and not completely sold on the -15.5 altline I took, may wind up middling it or something but well count it for now
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Old 08-06-2020, 04:49 AM   #478
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

after COLL first half i wish you could fade players to kick a goal ...2 goals 10 is insane(ly bad)
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Old 08-06-2020, 05:04 AM   #479
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

They really, really should win this game given flow

Ridiculous first half obv to be down 8 when they should be up 20

Added u40.5 for St George/Sydney Roosters -115
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Old 08-06-2020, 05:57 AM   #480
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Attempting a middle on St George game

STG/Sydney o6.5 tries -105
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Old 08-06-2020, 06:33 AM   #481
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

wow so you need exactly how they have started with missed conversions?
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Old 08-06-2020, 07:46 AM   #482
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Market drastically overestimates number of goals/underestimates number of missed convs in 2020

Always take the tries over or the total under atm
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Old 08-06-2020, 07:47 AM   #483
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

^great middle mate ..WD
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Old 08-07-2020, 01:07 AM   #484
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Essendon +14.5 -110
Essendon/GWS u103.5 -110

Rain game, taking dog/under

All games are rain today so prob all unders ok altho most alrdy steamed and Im def gonna get on the Bris/Souths nrl over IF rain clears at all even for half the game but well see
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Old 08-07-2020, 01:10 AM   #485
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Wins

Both sides NRL middle Syd/STG +2u
Suns spread +1u
Cats spread +1u

Losses

Lions -1.15u
Collingwood -1.33u

107-77-1 +11.34

4-2 +1.52u since last update
111-79-1 +12.86u

Pending

Essendon +14.5 -110
Essendon/GWS u103.5 -110
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Old 08-07-2020, 01:24 AM   #486
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Manly Sea Eagles Lead at HT/Win -111
Manly score first lead ht win +150
Manly -7.5 +100

The rain does hurt with it being a fav side etc slightly and likely low scoring game, but the markets drastically overreacted to two second rowers being out for Manly with them at home etc imo when the Warriors also lost one of their halves this week and are understrength
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Old 08-07-2020, 03:19 AM   #487
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Brisbane Broncos +10 +100
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Old 08-07-2020, 05:03 AM   #488
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Broncos/Souths o35.5 -122

Looks like this Manly game is a disaster after their start guess they could still cover but what a horrible first 15 mins lol
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Old 08-07-2020, 05:58 AM   #489
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Rain clearing everywhere so got it wrong for Ess/GWS under but hopefully we can get a win there anyway

Adding Broncos/Souths o36.5 -110 now doubling down with rain clearing and also Broncos TT o12.5 +112 lets gogo
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Old 08-07-2020, 09:39 AM   #490
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

111-79-1 +12.86u

2-2 on Bris game won overs lost Bris games they are truly terrible, Fifita is basically their only good player and hes gone next season. Haas works hard and Dearden is trying. Staggs went MIA today so did Coates. No idea what Lodge and Pangai are doing they were good a year ago and are horrible now

1-1 Ess game -0.1u lost total won side

Got scooped Manly game 0-3 -3.11u, couldn't overcome their horrible start. Ah well

111-79-1 +12.86u

3-6 today

114-85-1 +9.65u

200 bets in we're at +9.65u feels like we've run roughly to expectation to far thats about what I think the true ROI is. Not sure if we'll get to 400 bets this season but we'll probably get close.

Adding Port Adelaide h2h -110 and Port + Brisbane Lions ML parlay +193 and Lions -222 h2h for tomorrow

Edit: Adding Newcastle Knights -3.5 -110 and Knights ML-155 haven't bet them myself yet but might get busy and forget tomorrow and i'll def be on the Knights in some capacity

Will probably be on Storm if it goes below 12 but passing if it stays at 12 or higher
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Old 08-08-2020, 12:16 AM   #491
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Melb Storm score first lead ht win -110
Melb Storm lead ht win -182

Selling Brisbane Lions h2h (+230 is available on betfair and +220 on a book so i'm just gonna call it +222 and delete the -222 bet as if it's zeroed out)

WB +222 to delete Lions ML bet

114-85-1 +9.65u

Pending

Melb Storm score first lead ht win -110
Melb Storm lead ht win -182
Newcastle Knights -3.5 -110
Newcastle Knights ML -155
Port Adelaide h2h -110
Port Adelaide + Brisbane Lions ML parlay +193
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Old 08-08-2020, 05:25 AM   #492
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Canberra Raiders +6 -110
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Old 08-08-2020, 09:06 AM   #493
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

114-85-1 +9.65u

Melb Storm score first lead ht win -110 W
Melb Storm lead ht win -182 W
Newcastle Knights -3.5 -110 W
Newcastle Knights ML -155 W
Port Adelaide h2h -110 W
Port Adelaide + Brisbane Lions ML parlay +193 W
Canberra Raiders +6 -110 L

114-85-1 +9.65u
6-1 +5.83u today

120-86-1 +15.48u

Actually managed to nail a couple overs today that I didn't get a chance to post as well, another pretty solid day

Lean Titans spread tomorrow but haven't fired yet as it's been drifting and may end up leaving it if Morgan plays as he's a big in for Cowboys

Definitely going to mash Sharks/Eels tries over if there's no rain, and to be honest probably even if there is rain but if its the latter ill wait for the unders steam to come first

Added

Carlton Blues +20.5 +100 for tomorrow AFL (-110 is fine but just got +100 a minute ago)
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Old 08-08-2020, 09:56 PM   #494
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Cronulla Sharks +6.5 -111

Pure market play seems to be coming in towards +5.5 and while the Eels are much better on paper they've been unimpressive the last few weeks.

Will almost certainly have some overs regardless of whether it rains for Cronulla/Parramatta game but waiting to see if it rains or not since if it doesnt rain ill go bigger if it does will go smaller/wait for it to steam unders
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Old 08-08-2020, 11:53 PM   #495
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Gold Coast Titans +4.5 -127
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Old 08-09-2020, 05:07 AM   #496
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

120-86-1 +15.48u

Both NRL spots win, Carlton blow it after covering all game basically til the final minutes for 2-1 +1u

122-87-1 +16.48u

As a Titans fan i'm very happy with what i've been seeing the last few weeks I think it'll be a long time until the market gives them any respect against lower-middle tier sides but they may be legit mid tier by the end of the year.
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Old 08-09-2020, 07:44 AM   #497
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Does Superleague count for Rugby League

I'll count it today for the thread but if no interest i'll just do Aus/NZ sport moving forward but it's still Rugby League so I guess it counts?

Salford/Hull o7.5 tries -138
St Helens ML -275

Is anyone still following the thread out of curiosity? Ironically hit a bit of an upswing after US sport came back, so that's probably less useful for the bored American sports fans here
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Old 08-09-2020, 10:02 AM   #498
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Ok one more, Wakefield Trinity Wildcats +12.5 -110

Let's see if we can go 3/3 and sweep super league today, first one won

123-87-1 +17.48u

Wakefield +12.5 -110 and St Helens ML -275 pending

Can anyone give an opinion as to whether they want English Super League plays too or just nrl/afl? Not sure how active the thread is exactly in terms of people viewing as opposed to posting
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Old 08-10-2020, 04:13 AM   #499
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Super league scoops

Am on St Kilda +9.5 today but forgot to post so doesnt count for thread as its started will try and remember to post for 2nd game

125-87-1 +17.48u
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Old 08-10-2020, 05:10 AM   #500
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

im obviously still following this thread and you can post plays on ice melting down a window pane as far as im concerned so please continue if you dont mind

Last edited by Dreadnaught; 08-10-2020 at 05:15 AM. Reason: speeling
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