Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreadnaught
just wondering how you weight your bet amounts?
According to perceived edge + in cases where i'm maxing (which is most of the time) my ability to get money down on a particular spot - it varies wildly some spots you cant even get 1k down other spots you can get decent 5 figures down etc
In general though google 'half kelly' I don't follow that exactly but it's a decent guideline. I have an idea of what I think my edge is on a particular spot and try and size accordingly for example i'm sizing down on 1.5% edge, firing a unit or so on a 3% edge or will obv try and get multiple units if I can if I have a 10% edge or whatever - in a lot of cases I can't get down as much as I want so I just max it on any books I have available to me at the time and then that's my sizing obv
As general advice though size up when you have a bigger edge and size down when you have a smaller edge
For example let's say I make a the fair value of an NRL line +1.5
I might make a small bet at +2 (it's a valuable point to cross), a standard to decent size bet at +2.5 or if i'm getting +4 or more i'm going to go hard and just max away because i'm confident even if I get too much on I should usually be able to middle/arb some later if need be, or just hold it all at a big edge if the edge is large enough that my bankroll management allows me to do so
There's actually a couple decent spots on the Roosters game available now on various books but I wouldn't be able to get much down due to which book it is and the standing of my account there so i'm waiting til tomorrow and should be able to get a full unit or more on, and if it moves i'll find some correlated value somewhere else. Hitting it now would just get a few hundred bucks accepted and move the line.
Last edited by SwoopAE; 07-24-2020 at 09:27 AM.