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Old 07-12-2020, 04:08 AM   #401
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Doubling down it's pouring

St George Dragons/Manly Sea Eagles u36.5 -125

It's pouring rain at both venues, the Carlton game and the St George one

I did double down Carlton one too on an altline but didn't remember to post so w/e

Richmond win

78-50-1 +13.83u

This weekend's going well lets finish with some rain unders
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Old 07-12-2020, 04:11 AM   #402
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Flier I like here too Dragons vs Sea Eagles

Game to go to extra time (draw regular time) +2000

Low scoring grind in the rain and two closely matched teams. I think it's good.

Won't count it for thread in grading but I like it
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Old 07-12-2020, 10:42 AM   #403
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Sigh late game rain unders, NRL especially screwed us was about 98% with 9mins left then they scored three tries in 9 mins and nailed a sideline conversion after buzzer

The AFL one closed 10 points lower at 104.5 then the worst of the rain JUST missed the stadium somehow and it went way over

78-50-1 +13.83u

Two NRL unders and the one AFL under lose on Dragons and Carlton games

78-53-1 +10.26u
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Old 07-15-2020, 09:07 AM   #404
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Took a few more lines today

St George Dragons -6.5 -143
Parramatta Eels -6.5 -143
Sydney Roosters -11.5 +100
Newcastle Knights +1.5 +100
QLD Reds -12.5 -139

I actually took Knights +2 -110 and Roosters -11.5 -110 in reality an hour or two ago but got bust so i'm posting the best current price available on both on a major aus book atm, the +2 is gone but there's a better price on the -11.5 now

I expect to probably be on the Wests Tigers, Cronulla Sharks, Panthers/Cowboys over and maybe Panthers or Panthers TT over if I get a good number in some capacity but haven't fired yet. No bet probably for Storm/Titans as I probably just want to enjoy the game as a Titans fan (as much as I can enjoy a game where we're +19.5 underdogs anyway) - the line seems about right to me anyway

AFL i'm gonna wait for some final squads etc and weather news and see

Heading into the new week

78-53-1 +10.26u

Pending

St George Dragons -6.5 -143 (fine to -9.5 -110)
Parramatta Eels -6.5 -143 (fine to -9.5 -110)
Sydney Roosters -11.5 +100 (fine to -110)
Newcastle Knights +1.5 +100 (+2 -115 or +2.5 -125 are good too)
QLD Reds -12.5 -139 (I like buying the points here vs the -15.5/-16.5 main line)
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Old 07-16-2020, 05:22 AM   #405
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding Roosters lead ht and win -182 and Geelong +2.5 -110 for today

I got o99.5 for the Geelong game when weather started to clear too but line's longgggg gone now so can't count that for thread as forgot to post when I got it

Also got some Roosters score first lead ht and win too but the price is long gone on that too, fine above -118 imo if anyone wants it

Pending today

Roosters -11.5 +100
Roosters lead ht win -182
Geelong Cats +2.5

Pending later

St George Dragons -6.5 -143
Parramatta Eels -6.5 -143
Newcastle Knights +1.5 +100
QLD Reds -12.5 -139
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Old 07-16-2020, 09:32 AM   #406
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

78-53-1 +10.26u

0-3 today, Roosters blew a lead and Geelong lost, so that sucked. Roosters lead ht win, Geelong spread and Roosters spread all lose. Hey at least we beat the closing lines lol, doesn't count unless it wins though

78-56-1 +6.34u

Adding Newcastle Knights +2 -116

Too many injury unknowns to touch the Tigers/Broncos game yet

Market likes Western Bulldogs too but i'm leaving it alone for now
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Old 07-17-2020, 03:23 AM   #407
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding a few more mostly altlines some main lines and totals

Wests Tigers -1.5 -162 (fine til -5.5)
Wests Tigers/Brisbane Broncos o34.5 -111
Cronulla Sharks -1.5 -162
Penrith/North QLD Cowboys o43.5 -111
Penrith -11.5 -162
Penrith -15.5 -116
Western Bulldogs h2h -130 (i got some -125 and -130 but my bet moved the line to -133, so feel its fair to record at -130)

Parramatta Eels spot is probably a pass now, Ryan Matterson got injured today and hes one of their better players

edit: forgot to hit submit like an hour ago when I alt tabbed, Western Bulldogs have come in a bit so we'll grade it at -135 if it loses
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Old 07-17-2020, 07:55 AM   #408
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

close cover on both bets in wests game captain
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Old 07-17-2020, 09:31 AM   #409
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Wins on the Tigers side/total and Western Bulldogs and a loss on the Reds game although there was a 14 point turnaround on a full field intercept in a spot they score a try if the pass sticks but conceded one off the interception - in a game they won by 7 so pretty sure it was the right side just unlucky

Eels are definitely not a bet anymore, i'm holding my actual bet for now although it's in slightly bad I do still think they win easily a lot but Blake Ferguson being out too really hurts now. Matterson and Ferguson both out as well as Moses means the Eels injury tally almost matches Manly missing Trbojevic, Fonua-Blake and Walker (although Manly without Trbojevic are just not the same side)

This is the weakest the Eels have been on paper this year, but they are in solid form and should still win just not sold on it being a blowout anymore.

78-56-1 +6.34u
3-1 +1.61u today

81-57-1 +7.95u overall
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Old 07-17-2020, 10:13 AM   #410
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

dont want to clog the thread but coming of a 9 out of 9 and with the one leg miss bonus bet added (first $50) for first three multis per game going to post for first afl game tomorrow for prosperity

total is currently 129.5 which is relatively high in today's climate so they should be putting a few between the big sticks



GWS V BRIS

3 Leg Same Game Multi
@ 3.25
Daniel RichTo Get 15 or More Disposals (averages 16.3)
Daniel McStayAny Time Goal Scorer (avg 1)
Stephen ConiglioTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 19.8)


3 Leg Same Game Multi
@ 3.40
Jacob HopperTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 17.3)
Harry PerrymanAny Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.5)
Jeremy FinlaysonAny Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.7)

3 Leg Same Game Multi
@ 3.75
Jarrod BerryTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 16.8)
Eric HipwoodAny Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.2)
Lachie NealeAny Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.2)


and a swing for the fence :
9 Leg Same Game Multi
@ 42.75
Daniel RichTo Get 15 or More Disposals
Daniel McStayAny Time Goal Scorer
Stephen ConiglioTo Get 15 or More Disposals
Jacob HopperTo Get 15 or More Disposals
Harry PerrymanAny Time Goal Scorer
Jeremy FinlaysonAny Time Goal Scorer
Jarrod BerryTo Get 15 or More Disposals
Eric HipwoodAny Time Goal Scorer
Lachie NealeAny Time Goal Scorer

Last edited by Dreadnaught; 07-17-2020 at 10:22 AM. Reason: added some context
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Old 07-17-2020, 11:00 AM   #411
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Added Hurricanes -1 (on a book that grades with extra time not regular time) -118 for Super Rugby

If your book grades on regular time take h2h -125 or -130 or whatever instead

GL Dreadnaught, and you're not clogging the thread otherwise it's just me posting for no reason if people don't care about what i'm betting there's no point recording all these bets here and of course i'm interested in seeing what other people are betting too
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Old 07-17-2020, 12:42 PM   #412
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

swoop, i should start posting here to let you know if i've been able to tail you before action begins

this way if you don't see me posting here you can safely max bet it as I'm exceedingly good at tailing you on the bad ones and not catching them in time when you have the good days
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Old 07-17-2020, 11:03 PM   #413
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding Brisbane lions ml -111

UL rickroll hopefully it pucks up for you
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Old 07-18-2020, 02:56 AM   #414
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Adding Brisbane lions ml -111

UL rickroll hopefully it pucks up for you
no worries mate, just putting a few bucks on each to have something to tail

i'm 25-49-2 with a loss of $32 in the isles so literally doesn't matter

a lot of it is from the yolo parlays and me making "correlated" plays to what you do but it's mostly from tailing too late as I suspect you're a market mover

a few times you'd get like -3.5 and I'd follow at -6.5 and they'd win by 5 so winner for you but loser for me - very much new to sports betting and spreads so this has been a very valuable lesson that I paid for quite cheaply, no longer just follow at any spread and am much more discerning and cognizant that those amounts do in fact matter

but generally when you have the 3-1 days are the times I missed the posts on time for example, i missed a chance to tail for brisbane so i know it's now a lock to win

glad you're posting here and finally getting to the point of being able to recognize if it's afl or rugby when you mention a team so it's slowly seeping in
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Old 07-18-2020, 08:18 AM   #415
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Added Penrith Panthers/North QLD Cowboys o42.5 -114 and Penrith/North QLD o7.5 tries -125 (I like the latter more and fine with it til -135 at least if not further)
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Old 07-18-2020, 09:19 AM   #416
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Once again reiterating that even numbers matter for nrl sides/totals and odd numbers dont unless its crossing 1 or 7 on sides

So crossing from +2.5 to +3.5 is worthless in NRL but +3.5 to +4.5 is valuable - and on totals, crossing 36, 38, 40, 42, etc is valuable but crossing 37, 39, 41 etc is worth a lot less

AFL all points weighted equally and super rugby isn't quite equally but close enough we can call it that for an amateur bettor
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Old 07-18-2020, 10:30 AM   #417
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Got some Tsaryukan -200, Spivak at various prices that average out to something like -170 I think, Carolina +100 and Duffy -285

Gonna try and max out Tsaryukan probably, I especially like Tsaryukan as i'm very high on him and he should beat Ramos easily as long as he doesn't get subbed and he certainly doesn't get subbed more than a third of the time which is about where the odds are.

Small sweat bets on Gordon +137 and Jackson -200 too but i've sized everything down so far, might try to get a few more spots tomorrow when books taking more action. The only one I have a decent amount on so far is Tsaryukan

Tempted by JB or JB dec in the main but I kinda want to cheer against him so will only take it if I find a nice value spot
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Old 07-18-2020, 10:45 AM   #418
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Got some Tsaryukan -200, Spivak at various prices that average out to something like -170 I think, Carolina +100 and Duffy -285

Gonna try and max out Tsaryukan probably, I especially like Tsaryukan as i'm very high on him and he should beat Ramos easily as long as he doesn't get subbed and he certainly doesn't get subbed more than a third of the time which is about where the odds are.

Small sweat bets on Gordon +137 and Jackson -200 too but i've sized everything down so far, might try to get a few more spots tomorrow when books taking more action. The only one I have a decent amount on so far is Tsaryukan

Tempted by JB or JB dec in the main but I kinda want to cheer against him so will only take it if I find a nice value spot
i sub to both threads so for me it's all good but pretty sure you meant this in the mma one

and btw if you like duffy, he's now moved to -345 but you can get +116 by decision, +352 by ko/tko/dq, & by submission +403 and playing around with numbers get a far better payout regardless of outcome than by betting him straight
Spoiler:

Last edited by rickroll; 07-18-2020 at 10:58 AM.
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Old 07-18-2020, 07:58 PM   #419
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Yeah obv intended that post for the MMA thread not counting any MMA stuff here just Aus and nz sport so ignore that post

Added some Cronulla Sharks -1.5 -154

I love that Penrith north Qld o7.5 tries bet today

Anyway gl sharks Panthers and Panthers game overs today
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Old 07-18-2020, 08:34 PM   #420
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

result

GWS V BRIS

3 Leg Same Game Multi
@ 3.25 L
Daniel RichTo Get 15 or More Disposals (averages 16.3) W
Daniel McStayAny Time Goal Scorer (avg 1) L
Stephen ConiglioTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 19.8) W


3 Leg Same Game Multi
@ 3.40 L
Jacob HopperTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 17.3) W
Harry PerrymanAny Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.5) L
Jeremy FinlaysonAny Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.7) W

3 Leg Same Game Multi
@ 3.75 W
Jarrod BerryTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 16.8) W
Eric HipwoodAny Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.2) W
Lachie NealeAny Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.2) W
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Old 07-18-2020, 08:43 PM   #421
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

AFL
Carlton V Port

@ $3.30
Todd MarshallAny Time Goal Scorer (averages 1.3)
Mitch McGovernAny Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.3)
Ed CurnowTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 17.7)

@ $3.40
Ollie WinesTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 18.3)
Eddie BettsAny Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.8)
Justin Westhoff Any Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.2)

@ $3.40
Darcy Byrne-JonesTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 18.5)
Sam WalshTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 18.2)
Jack Martin Any Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.3)

plus all 9 of the above @ $33.50 for .2U
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Old 07-18-2020, 08:45 PM   #422
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

am on both your Penrith game bets Swoop ..lets gogogo
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Old 07-18-2020, 11:05 PM   #423
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

AFL- Hawks V Melb

@ 3.00
Mitch Hannan Any Time Goal Scorer (averages 1.3)
Isaac SmithTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 20.8)
James Worpel To Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 18.2)

@ 3.20
Shaun Burgoyne Any Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.2)
Max GawnTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 17.8)
Jack VineyTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 22.4)

@ 3.50
Over (123.5)Total Game Points - Over/Under
James Sicily To Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 18.0)
Sam Weideman Any Time Goal Scorer (avg 2.0)

plus all 9 of the above @ $31.75 for .2U
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Old 07-19-2020, 01:23 AM   #424
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Result

AFL
Carlton V Port

@ $3.30 L
Todd MarshallAny Time Goal Scorer (averages 1.3) L
Mitch McGovernAny Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.3) L
Ed CurnowTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 17.7) W

@ $3.40 L
Ollie WinesTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 18.3) W
Eddie BettsAny Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.8) W
Justin Westhoff Any Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.2) L

@ $3.40 W
Darcy Byrne-JonesTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 18.5) W
Sam WalshTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 18.2) W
Jack Martin Any Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.3) W
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Old 07-19-2020, 03:59 AM   #425
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Result

AFL- Hawks V Melb

@ 3.00 L
Mitch Hannan Any Time Goal Scorer (averages 1.3) W
Isaac SmithTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 20.8) L
James Worpel To Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 18.2) L

@ 3.20 W
Shaun Burgoyne Any Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.2) W
Max GawnTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 17.8) W
Jack VineyTo Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 22.4) W

@ 3.50 W
Over (123.5)Total Game Points - Over/Under W
James Sicily To Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 18.0) W
Sam Weideman Any Time Goal Scorer (avg 2.0) W

plus all 9 of the above @ $31.75 for .2U L

miss Worpel and Smith by one possession each for the sweep where they were both super chalk to cover ...doh
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