Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
Ok so I just spent today fixing what I found out was a VERY faulty assumption for my AFL bets so they should be better in the future. Can't go into specifics here but I was doing something very wrong specific to AFL sides (not totals) and that should be fixed moving forward. Stupid error prob cost me a couple units EV this AFL season so far have ended up on the wrong side of a couple games because of it but w/e all good onto the next
I did like Roosters -11.5 but woke up to the line being gone today which is disappointing so didn't get it but if anyone can get it at sub 12 it's good but I can't. I might find some other spot after lineups are out now idk
Nothing yet will post spots as I get them
i haven't modeled for sports betting yet but am fairly accomplished in dfs and my god, the amount of times i was inputting the wrong data feed, double counting some issues, multiplying instead of subtracting, etc...
it's tough to spot the errors unless there's an obviously off result and I can often go weeks until noticing the symptoms that something may not be right and then i pop open the hood and see the horror of knowing how much money i'd wagered on those errors - even more discouraging knowing i had the errors and still won and really makes me wonder how much of my model is just common sense combined with luck rather than advanced edge gaining wizardy