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Old 07-05-2020, 03:55 AM   #376
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

fk my life ...miss afl multi on second game due to Houli deciding to get 19 and not 20 possessions (token $50 bonus bet won but might as well through that out the window...or better known as my next bet)
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Old 07-05-2020, 04:01 AM   #377
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Hawthorn Hawks +5.5 -111

Some late steam there and they opened +7.5 steaming in etc

GL Hawks and Rabbitohs late games
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Old 07-05-2020, 04:07 AM   #378
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

oh well ....as a long term hawks supporter I here by summon the demons of whatever sport god there is to bless/curse this last AFL game to save my current apocolipitical (sic) days trajectory
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Old 07-05-2020, 06:07 AM   #379
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

gods/demons listening with a chance to hit both last afl game multis with a quarter to go .....not sure which way to prey but doing both
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Old 07-05-2020, 06:28 AM   #380
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Decent day in the end. AFL sides steam continues to be garbage but totals seems ok. NRL and Super Rugby has been decent lately just AFL sides letting me down

Grading stuff today

62-42-1 +6.85u

South Sydney Rabbitohs -1.5 -263 W
Newcastle Knights -1.5 -110 W
Newcastle Knights ML -128 W
Hawthorn Hawks +5.5 -111 L
Souths score first lead ht and win +100 W
Canterbury Bulldogs TT u12.5 -133 W

67-43-1 +10.74u

That Richmond game over got there too but doesn't count for thread as didn't get it in time.
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Old 07-05-2020, 06:43 AM   #381
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

sick results today mate ...well done soldier
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Old 07-06-2020, 03:26 AM   #382
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Ok so I just spent today fixing what I found out was a VERY faulty assumption for my AFL bets so they should be better in the future. Can't go into specifics here but I was doing something very wrong specific to AFL sides (not totals) and that should be fixed moving forward. Stupid error prob cost me a couple units EV this AFL season so far have ended up on the wrong side of a couple games because of it but w/e all good onto the next

I did like Roosters -11.5 but woke up to the line being gone today which is disappointing so didn't get it but if anyone can get it at sub 12 it's good but I can't. I might find some other spot after lineups are out now idk

Nothing yet will post spots as I get them
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Old 07-06-2020, 04:22 AM   #383
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Ok so I just spent today fixing what I found out was a VERY faulty assumption for my AFL bets so they should be better in the future. Can't go into specifics here but I was doing something very wrong specific to AFL sides (not totals) and that should be fixed moving forward. Stupid error prob cost me a couple units EV this AFL season so far have ended up on the wrong side of a couple games because of it but w/e all good onto the next

I did like Roosters -11.5 but woke up to the line being gone today which is disappointing so didn't get it but if anyone can get it at sub 12 it's good but I can't. I might find some other spot after lineups are out now idk

Nothing yet will post spots as I get them
i haven't modeled for sports betting yet but am fairly accomplished in dfs and my god, the amount of times i was inputting the wrong data feed, double counting some issues, multiplying instead of subtracting, etc...

it's tough to spot the errors unless there's an obviously off result and I can often go weeks until noticing the symptoms that something may not be right and then i pop open the hood and see the horror of knowing how much money i'd wagered on those errors - even more discouraging knowing i had the errors and still won and really makes me wonder how much of my model is just common sense combined with luck rather than advanced edge gaining wizardy
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Old 07-07-2020, 06:35 AM   #384
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Taking a couple Super Rugby spots to start the week off

QLD Reds +1.5 -111
NSW Waratahs -9.5 -111

Reds should be favs over the Rebels even away and the market tends to agree as it's moving that way and the Waratahs are playing a side that was stripped of it's Super Rugby status and is only back due to Covid making the comps all same-country ones. Steaming in a bunch there so will get on Tahs early.
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Old 07-07-2020, 09:12 AM   #385
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding Brisbane Lions ML -141

Should be the competition favs right now and it's on neutral ground.

Also taking NSW Waratahs ML -323
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Old 07-08-2020, 07:43 AM   #386
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Valentine Holmes is out for the Cowboys

Adding

Roosters score first lead at HT and win -105
Roosters -13.5 +100
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Old 07-09-2020, 05:38 AM   #387
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Well thats annoying, Roosters lose Brett Morris in the warmup one of their wingers and Holmes is in granted Holmes is carrying an injury
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Old 07-09-2020, 07:03 AM   #388
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

gogogoog rooosters!!!
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Old 07-09-2020, 07:11 AM   #389
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

just the lazy 5 tries in 18 minutes ..fk yes

Last edited by Dreadnaught; 07-09-2020 at 07:13 AM. Reason: make that 6 in 20 minutes..tedesco U the man
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Old 07-09-2020, 07:54 AM   #390
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Ugh Lions traded -1000 live up 22 pts

They're gonna lose by 30-40

Roosters get it done but the score first part bricks annoyingly


67-43-1 +10.74u

1-2 today

68-45-1 +9.28u
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Old 07-09-2020, 08:48 AM   #391
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding Crusaders -7.5 -116 Super Rugby and Hurricanes -6.5 Super Rugby

Last edited by SwoopAE; 07-09-2020 at 09:14 AM.
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Old 07-09-2020, 09:13 AM   #392
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding Wests Tigers +4.5 +100

Brisbane Broncos -4 -110 (might sell or middle this; if Staggs isn't in we'll get rid of it)

I got some Fremantle Dockers spread at a number no longer available due to some steam but may middle it or w/e not counting for thread anyway
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Old 07-10-2020, 02:47 AM   #393
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

GL Reds and Wests Tigers today

I got some Reds game u54.5 but it was an off line and quickly moved so won't count it for thread

Warriors steamed hard today but missed it; i'm a Titans fan anyway so get to enjoy the game I guess w no bet

Also adding Collingwood Magpies vs Hawthorn Hawks u120.5 -130 and Melbourne Storm -1.5 -110
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Old 07-10-2020, 04:11 AM   #394
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Was so close to taking overs for this Titans Warriors game sigh

Gonna have 60 pts in it at this rate
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Old 07-10-2020, 09:32 AM   #395
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding Port Adelaide Power +1.5 +100 for Sunday's AFL, fine at -110 and I did get some at that price but also got some at +100 which is still available on a major aus book or ML at evens is fine too.

Also adding Canterbury Bulldogs +5.5 -110 to middle out of my Brisbane Broncos -4; Kotoni Staggs is a huge out and I lean Bulldogs side now probably at the line but will just middle it for now will rebet the Dogs side tomorrow if I decide to, not sure yet gonna wait for final squads

Adding Hurricanes -5.5 -111 for Super Rugby on Sunday as well

Also Munster is out after initially thinking he's a chance to play and Vunivalu out too; Munster hurts as Storm would have been -4 or so with him in, but holding my -1.5 for now, market stable at -1.5 etc and I still lean towards them winning without him, Canberra have been bad since ironically their last good game was beating Melbourne earlier in the year but think Melb get the job done tomorrow.

Reds game was pretty epic today some major swings and it ended in a draw after extra time glad I got the +1.5 as they closed favs. Really should have won quite easily though, had two players sin binned, threw an intercept try, missed two penalty goals and gave up an unnecessary possession at end of first half that led to a penalty goal for the Rebels. Glad they salvaged a draw from being down 10 late. After seeing the game though i'd snap rebet the ML at -150 in a rematch next week also on neutral ground.

68-45-1 +9.28u

Wests Tigers L -1u
Reds +1.5 W +1u
Coll/Haw u120.5 W +1u

70-46-1 +10.28u

Pending

Waratahs ML -323
Waratahs -9.5 -111
Broncos -4 -110 /Middled with Bulldogs +5.5 -110 to probably lose rake
Storm -1.5 -110
Hurricanes -6.5 -110 and Hurricanes -5.5 -111
Crusaders -7.5 -116
Port Adelaide Power +1.5 +100
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Old 07-11-2020, 01:27 AM   #396
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Added Brisbane Broncos/Canterbury Bulldogs o37.5 -114

Feels so wrong to be on a Bulldogs game over lol but they should score a bit vs Broncos d and Broncos should score a bit too and 37.5 is a low total w new rules and two teams with iffy defenses. This is the sort of game that could be 28-20 or 18-10 and nothing would surprise me really
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Old 07-11-2020, 10:23 AM   #397
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding more Port Adelaide +0.5 -111 they're in to favs now and been told by some sharp guys they're def favs tomorrow

Taking Carlton vs Western Bulldogs u114.5 -110 (rain expected, will likely close lower, will try and sell if it somehow isn't gonna rain)

Market loves St George tomorrow but I just refuse to bet on the Dragons vs Manly even with all of Manly's outs so gonna leave it.

Other games TBD we'll see

edit: removed a Hurricanes bet I already had didn't realise

Last edited by SwoopAE; 07-11-2020 at 10:32 AM.
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Old 07-11-2020, 10:35 AM   #398
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

70-46-1 +10.28u

Pending

Waratahs ML -323 W
Waratahs -9.5 -111 L
Broncos -4 -110 /Middled with Bulldogs +5.5 -110 to probably lose rake WL -0.1u
Storm -1.5 -110 W
Crusaders -7.5 -116 W
Broncos game o37.5 -114 L

Ironically had more o6.5 tries than o37.5 for Broncos game which won in reality, so that feels good, had a nice day today

74-49-1 +10.93u

Pending: Hurricanes bets, Port Adelaide bets, Carlton/WB under
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Old 07-11-2020, 06:31 PM   #399
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Added Richmond Tigers h2h -139

No bets yet for the NRL today, first game I think line is about right and second game market likes St George a lot but I prefer Manly on instinct so leaving it
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Old 07-12-2020, 02:32 AM   #400
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

St George Dragons/Manly Sea Eagles u37.5 -118

One word, rain.

I do hate NRL unders w new rules, but it's got the makings of a low scoring grind and there will be rain. u36.5 is fine but pass 36



74-49-1 +10.93u

Two wins on Port spreads, a win and a loss on the Hurricanes -5.5 and -6.5 (they won by 6)

77-50-1 +12.83u

Pending

Dragons/Sea Eagles u37.5 -118
Richmond ML -139
Carlton/Western Bulldogs u114.5 -114

GL us
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