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Old 07-02-2020, 08:01 AM   #351
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

53-33-1 +8.78u

0-3 today pretty dumb considering Roosters were up 10 with 9 mins left and they managed to lose. Line closed at 6.5 there vs the approx 6 it was at when I bet my altlines; in the AFL it closed at Carlton +2.5 and they just had a horrible first half and it was dead by half time. Won second half but was too late

53-36-1 +4.5u
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Old 07-02-2020, 11:40 AM   #352
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding Parramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys o40.5 -114 for NRL tomorrow

Cowboys have had no issue scoring points and their defense is garbage. The Eels can defend at times but have lapses and they can certainly score a ton of points with their elite backs against a bad Cowboys defense, Mitch Moses being out might make their play lack direction but I think both sides are capable of putting up 20 points here and the Eels are capable of putting up 30 plus a decent amount. I think this is a 42.5 game probably so will take sub 42 happily

Lot of NRL games have been going over in this past week, could be a trend with the 6 again rule and teams getting tired late in the 2h etc especially the sides with better attacks or weaker defenses

Hopefully we can turn it around tomorrow after a subpar day today
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Old 07-02-2020, 11:46 PM   #353
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding Reds/Waratahs super rugby game o52.5 -110 to go with my reds bet

Also selling my Essendon bet due to substantial market drift, will take a 0.1u loss there.


54-37-1 +4.4u after selling Essendon (bought other side -110 counts as one win one loss -0.1u etc)

Pending Reds/Waratahs over, QLD Reds, Parramatta/North QLD game o40.5 and the Newcastle and South Sydney bets

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Old 07-03-2020, 12:32 AM   #354
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding Canberra Raiders vs St George Dragons, St George Dragons Team Total u12.5 +110 for tonight's early NRL (fine to about -110 imo pass after that)

I think the Raiders hold them to 2 tries or less more often than not, and a penalty goal is unlikely once the Raiders are in front which is likely.
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Old 07-03-2020, 12:47 AM   #355
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Decent Raiders steam so gonna load up there

Adding

Canberra Raiders -9.5 -116
Canberra Raiders lead at HT and win -133

Raiders have been out of form the last couple weeks but St George have been very lucky and are still a terrible team facing one of the best defensive sides in the comp. Raiders should crush them today.

Market liking North QLD Cowboys line too in the late game but gonna pass I prefer the overs it's just moving because Valentine Holmes is in for the Cowboys. Even without Mitch Moses though I think the Eels put tons of points on them, I think this game has tons of points in it
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Old 07-03-2020, 06:02 AM   #356
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

St George score with 90 seconds left to kill the line bet ...sad panda
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Old 07-03-2020, 09:20 AM   #357
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Reds and Over win, Raiders lead ht/win wins, Eels Cowboys over wins, meaningless garbage time try kills our st george tt under it was way ahead all game and the main line

Shame I sold Essendon bet they won outright but was a major market drift so just got rid of it for a small loss

4-2 +1.84u since last update

58-39-1 +6.24u

For tomorrow adding

Cronulla Sharks vs Gold Coast Titans u44.5 -115 (do not take 43.5 but 44 is okayish at normal vig - pay the -12x for u44.5 if need be) I think it lands on 42 or 44 a ton. Totals are trending upwards in the NRL with the rule change, and the Sharks are normally an overs team. Titans used to be but less so now as they fix their defense

Titans are missing a key attacking weapon in Sami which hurts a bit but i've felt their defense lifting a bit the past few weeks in general and while the Sharks on their day have an excellent attack (and badish defense) the Titans attack will be slightly subpar tomorrow but I think their defense should hold up - Tyrone Roberts isn't a fullback so is a minor downgrade there defensively but he's serviceable enough. Overall though i'm just not sold on the Sharks putting up tons of points in this one, it's the Titans first game back at home and while on paper with the rule change and so on you'd think it's an overs game (and i'd take overs at 41.5) I think this game will have 8 tries a ton, and u44.5 is a small fav there whereas 43.5 would lean overs with about 6/8 conversions being par. I also think 7 tries is more likely than 9, 9 is just a ton even with the rule change and would require a Titans capitulation which I just don't see here

I think the Titans lose like 18-24 or 18-26 a lot here but even with those being huge numbers they're still under this huge total. Short of a game featuring the Cowboys and another team with a better attack than defense i'm pretty happy to take unders at 44.5 or higher with most combos of teams.

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Old 07-04-2020, 12:16 AM   #358
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Added Brisbane Broncos/NZ Warriors o41.5 -122

Also Brumbies -5.5 vs Rebels -150 altline for Super Rugby

AFL Port Adelaide Power vs Brisbane Lions u128.5 -114 as well

Market hates my Titans Sharks under spot as high as 45.5 is available now but i'm standing by my read the rare fade steam spot

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Old 07-04-2020, 12:35 AM   #359
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

GC Suns/Geelong Cats o118.5 -110 too

Let's have a winning Saturday plz
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Old 07-04-2020, 03:03 AM   #360
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Added Crusaders/Highlanders o54.5 -111 Super Rugby. Massive late overs steam and I don't mind it Crusaders should score a ton and Highlanders will put up at least 20ish too

Looks like my read was wrong on the Titans/Sharks game, second half capitulation annoying and a few tries out of nowhere. My god Tyrone Roberts is a terrible fullback.
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Old 07-04-2020, 04:16 AM   #361
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Added North Melb Kangaroos +4.5 -110

Fine til +1.5 or so tbh tons of sharp money coming on them
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Old 07-04-2020, 05:41 AM   #362
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Got some Port Adelaide +2.5 last minute but just too late to post in thread so won't count it as it just kicked off just as I went to post.

GL us rest of day
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Old 07-04-2020, 08:25 AM   #363
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

lol I managed to win in thread today despite losing money due to various bet sizings in reality today

AFL's been pretty poor this season so far. Might scale it back a bit

Quite confident in Knights and Souths for tomorrow though.

Pending for tomorrow

South Sydney Rabbitohs -1.5 -263
Newcastle Knights -1.5 -110
Newcastle Knights ML -128

Grading stuff today

58-39-1 +6.24u

Titans/Sharks u44.5 -115 L
Brisbane Broncos/NZ Warriors o41.5 -122 W
Brumbies -5.5 vs Rebels -150 altline for Super Rugby W
AFL Port Adelaide Power vs Brisbane Lions u128.5 -114 L
GC Suns/Geelong Cats o118.5 -110 W
Crusaders/Highlanders o54.5 -111 W
North Melb Kangaroos +4.5 -110 L

62-42-1 +6.85u

Ironically i'm actually down slightly betting every spot in thread due to being slightly bigger on losers on average than winners, unfortunate but hopefully we win a bunch over remainder of seasons

Port spot that didn't count due to game kicking off before I could post it lost. Wish i'd missed getting on that one in reality Lions legit are premiership favs this year.
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Old 07-04-2020, 11:10 PM   #364
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

some afl mutlis for today for the hell of it ......

AFL
Adelaide v Fremantle
Over (123.5)Total Game Points - Over/Under
Matt CrouchTo Get 20 or More Disposals
Michael WaltersAny Time Goal Scorer
Pays $3.12

Adelaide v Fremantle
Rory LobbAny Time Goal Scorer
Ben CrockerAny Time Goal Scorer
Brad CrouchTo Get 20 or More Disposals
Michael WaltersTo Get 15 or More Disposals
Rory SloaneTo Get 15 or More Disposals
Pays $8.00

Melbourne v Richmond
Clayton OliverTo Get 20 or More Disposals
Bachar HouliTo Get 20 or More Disposals
Dustin MartinAny Time Goal Scorer
Dustin MartinTo Get 15 or More Disposals
Pays $3.00

Melbourne v Richmond
Christian PetraccaAny Time Goal Scorer
Jason CastagnaAny Time Goal Scorer
Dion PrestiaTo Get 20 or More Disposals
Jack VineyTo Get 15 or More Disposals
Trent CotchinTo Get 15 or More Disposals
Pays $5.50

GWS v Hawthorn
Lachie WhitfieldTo Get 20 or More Disposals
Tom MitchellTo Get 20 or More Disposals
Jeremy FinlaysonAny Time Goal Scorer
Pays $3.10


GWS v Hawthorn
Jaeger O'MearaTo Get 20 or More Disposals
Isaac SmithAny Time Goal Scorer
Toby GreeneAny Time Goal Scorer
Josh KellyTo Get 20 or More Disposals
Pays $7.25
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Old 07-04-2020, 11:32 PM   #365
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

worst skill errors/turnovers in a quarter of afl since the Eoarchean Era...good night total over unless the quarter time oranges are laced
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Old 07-05-2020, 12:12 AM   #366
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

glgl on your AFL bets

I was thinking about taking Freo but the market didn't want me to so left it, still think Adelaide win the spoon this year they're a complete mess in need of a full rebuild

I'm watching the Super Rugby atm no bet on it, Knights are my biggest bet today and i'll probably get some Souths score first lead ht and win or something for the late game, I did get some lead ht win yesterday but didn't post it and price has moved now etc, def gonna be on Knights and Rabbitohs, other than that idk. Market doesn't mind Hawthorn atm but the AFL steams been so inaccurate the past few weeks gonna leave it unless its a big move
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Old 07-05-2020, 12:14 AM   #367
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

oranges were laced but with wrong drugs ...pretty much dead in both of the first game AFL multis at the half (besides the 2 of 3 $50 token bonus bet on offer) .....good picking me

going so well going to add this

NRL
Manly Sea Eagles v Newcastle Knights
Newcastle Knights to win
Edrick LeeAnytime Tryscorer (I know i know - some sort of demonic possession made me hit the button)
Under (50.5)Alternative Total Match Points
Pays $4.00

Last edited by Dreadnaught; 07-05-2020 at 12:31 AM. Reason: grammar police
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Old 07-05-2020, 12:53 AM   #368
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

IF you want a multi just do knights w/ souths lead ht and win or bulldogs u12.5 itll win more often

FWIW if you're gonna take a tryscorer Lee is solid but anytime tryscorer + unders has a reverse correlation if you're not aware given you need less tries, but the more tries higher chance Lee gets one etc - you'd want player not to score a try/unders or player to score a try/overs

Honestly i'd just multi up Knights + some Souths do well/Bulldogs u2.5 tries or u12.5 or souths lead ht win or even score first lead he win etc if you want a 4.00 type prop

I have a Knights + Souths lead HT/Win parlay at +205 from yesterday although think it'd be more like +195 or so now w linemoves

If you want a super longshot Souths by -35.5 at +750 or so is solid imo, def think they blow the Bulldogs away by 36+ more than that I may even get some myself, 36-0 or 42-6 etc are very possible, tbh Souths by 56+ at like 50-1 isn't bad either, if they click they can ruin the Bulldogs, it's the sort of game that could be close, but Souths will win by 30+ at least a fifth of the time imo and probably more like a quarter. I think they win by 36+ maybe 18% to be honest might get some of that +750 but not posting it in thread as huge favs/dogs will skew the record in general not gonna post +500 or -500 or higher spots here
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Old 07-05-2020, 01:05 AM   #369
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Added Canterbury Bulldogs TT u12.5 -133
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Old 07-05-2020, 01:20 AM   #370
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

really appreciate the feedback Captain...thanks

Understand the reverse correlation and would much rather be on try/goal scorer markets when favoring the over total .....this game in particular is at 41.5ish so my (most likely flawed) logic is there is still going to be enough tries and teased the under due to historical results ...note NRL i generally suck at so learning as we go

added
Newcastle Knights to win
Sydney Rabbitohs @ Half Time/Full Time
pays $2.50

Last edited by Dreadnaught; 07-05-2020 at 01:22 AM. Reason: fk i suck ..just realized this price blows chunks ...doh ..oh well
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Old 07-05-2020, 01:28 AM   #371
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

p.s ...love the +500 or higher spots if you wanted to add unofficially to the thread at any stage to add to the rest of the countless amount of unrewarded time you put in
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Old 07-05-2020, 01:39 AM   #372
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

There was some late overs steam so got o119.5 for Richmond/Melb game but not in time to post it as game started so doesn't count for thread either

And yeah i'll add unofficial spots etc if there's a fav thats a lock or a dog thats value but ya I think the nothing above -500/+500 will give a more accurate represntation of my actual results for official plays ROI wise etc as +1000 -1000 hits or misses will skew it hard especially if theyre rare
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Old 07-05-2020, 02:04 AM   #373
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

thats a sweet over spot
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Old 07-05-2020, 03:21 AM   #374
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Gonna be a sweat need 27 final quarter, small fav but not a lock glme

Unlucky re Lee getting injured early in the game gl Knights/Souths
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Old 07-05-2020, 03:22 AM   #375
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Added one more Souths game, Souths score first lead ht and win +100
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