Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,875
could of been a lot better if Cog hadnt had a rare off night.....+2.1
Cross Code Multi:
NRL Storm -11.5 =W
NRL Roosters -10.5 =W
AFL GWS +7.5 =W
Pays $4.11 =W
AFL Same Game Multi:
GWS +2.5 =W
Stephen Coniglio ov 20 possessions =L (still incognito)
Jeremy Finlayson anytime goal scorer = W
pays $4.33 =L
well done again again Swwop for the complete day sccop
Last edited by Dreadnaught; 06-26-2020 at 08:49 AM.
Reason: will get to totals soon
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
Added Richmond -15.5 -110 (got a better price but thats the best price avail now)
Also adding Brisbane Lions -31.5 +100
I think I want Essendon Bombers and GC Suns too in the AFL and but gonna wait for game day and Parramatta Eels and maybe Gold Coast Titans (market move i'm not so confident on Titans personally) but we'll wait and see what game day steam does for all of those ones.
Ok so grading todays ones
Record in thread 41-30-1 +0.09u
Greater Western Sydney Giants +1.5 +100
Melbourne Storm score first lead at HT and win -125
New Zealand Warriors Team Total u12.5 -167
Melbourne Storm -11.5 -143
Melbourne Storm -9.5 -161
Sydney Roosters -11.5 -161
Sydney Roosters -13.5 -147
7/7 wins all for a unit. Glad I bought the Roosters altlines, feels good when they win by exactly 14 when their main line was 15.5. They'd have won by 20+ even with their outs though if they didn't have two players tear their ACLs in opening quarter of match
Record in thread 48-30-1 +7.09u
Pending
Richmond Tigers -15.5 -110 (I got +100 but -110 is available now and forgot to record earlier so we'll go with worse price whatever)
Brisbane Lions -31.5 +100
Port Adelaide Power ML -161
Auckland Blues ML + Canterbury Crusaders ML Parlay -140
Newcastle Knights -5.5 -110
Newcastle Knights -1.5 -161
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,875
^props mate
Last edited by Dreadnaught; 06-26-2020 at 10:37 AM.
Reason: well done
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 2,913
Of course, storm win 50 to 6.
At least someone is making money here. Tear drops..of joy.
Edit: OMG, I'm the biggest donkey in the history of the world.
No wonder the book wouldn't take my bet for the opponent. I had already put a bet in for Melbourne Storm!!
Only 18.48 richer, or as they say in sport lingo, half a unit, but still ,lol.
At least I'm always good for a laugh guys.
Good day mates!
Last edited by Nepeeme2008; 06-26-2020 at 08:54 PM.
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
Port price has drifted a bit still prefer that side but don't take the number I got as better numbers available
Others are in way good for today atm vs market finally got the Newcastle steam I was expecting
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
Some late West Coast outs so tons of late Port Adelaide Power steam which is nice for me
All 4 games in good now (Blues part of parlay is on today too), will get the late games later too probably
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
Adding Gold Coast Titans +7.5 +100
Scary as they're my team and have little faith in them but it's a decent start when the Broncos are bad at the moment too and they're steaming in
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
Looks like Port are going to win easily and Knights are going to lose badly
Baffling the Knights are playing this badly and the Cowboys are playing this well given recent form, I guess there's a full half to play but doesn't seem likely given the score
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
Record in thread 48-30-1 +7.09u
Assuming no major 100-1 comebacks next hour given scores will move to 49-32-1 +5.38u
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
Took Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues o124.5 -110
Titans are going to cover, Richmond don't after those 2 graded
49-31-1 +6.99u
Blues win so that parlay remains live in Rugby
Market has a mild lean to Raiders spread but I prefer Eels so passing the late NRL for now
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
Took some Gold Coast Suns and Parramatta Eels last minute but too late to post in thread as both games started
Let's finish strong today
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
49-31-1 +6.99u
Loss on the AFL over, 49-32-1 +5.89u
Eels and Suns both won close games but Eels didn't cover and I had split my bet between ML and spread so broke even, don't count for thread though as had kicked off before I could post. Fortunately decided not to play Essendon, some late Carlton steam convinced me not to and Carlton were clearly the right side should have won by 30 not 1 on gameflow it was insane Essendon nearly stole it on the buzzer
Anyway 49-32-1 +5.89u heading into Sunday hopefully we can run decent and i'm sure i'll find a few more spots. Blues won today so the parlay just needs Crusaders ML now.
Pending
Brisbane Lions -31.5 +100
Auckland Blues ML + Canterbury Crusaders ML Parlay -140
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
Added Hawthorn vs North Melb u134.5 -110
Just a pure market move spot but I like the under in a night game and it's on the move so why not
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
Adding Canterbury Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers u38.5 -111
Bankwest pitch is all torn up; Bulldogs an unders team and Wests can play either way depending on the day, think it prob closes a 36.5 where it should be imo
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
Adding Cronulla Sharks +2.5 +100
That uncapped Neds promo is pretty sick atm been getting 4-5 figs down not even on a whale act
I don't love this Sharks spot that much personally since Manly have more heart and structure but Manly are so ravaged by injury at the moment market really likes it so i'll take it I guess, market's headed down to +1.5 atm
Very lucky to cover the Lions bet it was 95% to win at half time then like 25% at 3Q time then it gets home
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
49-32-1 +5.89u
Brisbane Lions -31.5 +100
Auckland Blues ML + Canterbury Crusaders ML Parlay -140
Both wins
51-32-1 +7.89u
Pending
Hawthorn vs North Melb u134.5 -110
Cronulla Sharks +2.5 +100
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers u38.5 -111
I'm on Geelong Cats -10.5 in the AFL game on now but didn't have a chance to post it so won't count
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
All the late money's for the Bulldogs. Has been all week. Feels so wrong but that sheer weight of money has to be sharp. I'm passing because my personal lean is the other side though but anyone who wants it at 4 or better...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
51-32-1 +7.89u
Hawthorn vs North Melb u134.5 -110
Cronulla Sharks +2.5 +100
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers u38.5 -111
Two wins and a loss respectively 53-33-1 +8.78u
Annoyingly I lost money this week despite profiting in thread due to a poor MMA card and some poor luck re betsizing with a few winners being smaller and a few losers being bigger.
Slightly annoyed I didn't trust my personal opinion on the Wests tigers game but the sheer weight of steam on the Bulldogs forced me to pass in case the market knew something I didn't, not every day a side steams in 3.5 points then loses by 28 lol
Last edited by SwoopAE; 06-28-2020 at 07:39 AM.
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
Ok took a few spots for this week early so far, I have a few others I like but waiting to get on so won't post yet
Sydney Roosters -1.5 -175
I think Radley is a big out, but their replacement is fine etc and getting Tedesco and Morris back makes their backline so much deadlier
I was actually going to consider going with the Storm here but then Cameron Munster, their main playmaker, got injured last week and is out. The Storm's 1-5 is great too now, although not quite Roosters level, but their halves, there is a big gap from Keary+Flanagan to Jacks + Hughes. Forward packs are pretty close too but I think the roosters just win here on the back of having James Tedesco back and the best number available was an altline, although crossing the 1 may be more important here than usual due to how often the Storm and Roosters have close games I really think the Roosters will just be too good here at full strength except for Radley when Munster is out for the Storm and that's so much bigger (the Roosters other out Verrills doesn't really matter as Jake Friend can play 80 mins at hooker anyway and they can just put another forward on the bench instead)
South Sydney Rabbitohs -1.5 -263
Took another nice altline here, tbh I like the -10 as well but the price on -1.5 here is just ridiculous when they'll close -400ish h2h
Rabbitohs can be inconsistent and have struggled against top teams but they'll tear the Bulldogs apart the way they have against the other weak teams they've faced since lockdown ended, the Bulldogs just have no points in them and struggle to score more than 12 vs anyone. I'll probably get a Bulldogs TT under or total tries under here as well at some point or the main spread
Newcastle Knights -1.5 -110
Newcastle Knights ML -128 (was -115 a few minutes ago but was -128 by the time I bet it so I guess that'll have to do)
Manly looked badly out of sorts without Trbojevic and Walker last week and I expect them to be below their best again. Newcastle had a horrible first half before rallying against the Cowboys to lose but it's just one bad half, i'm going to chalk it up as an aberration and Bradman Best is returning for them too to effectively be full strength. It's technically a Manly home game but the Central Coast is actually closer to Newcastle and they'll have more fans in the reduced capacity stadium so it's actually closer to being a Newcastle home game than a Manly one
I think the Knights will close at -2.5 to -4 here so getting on early. I rated Manly a lot a few weeks ago but they had an off day against the Broncos then lost their best player and a key half and looked horrible against the Sharks. I still think they make finals if Trbojevic can recover quickly from his injury but they'll be in rough shape vs top 8 sides over the next few weeks and I think the Knights are a top 8 side this year. Manly's 1-5 are quite bad without Trbojevic and with Garrick playing out of position and it'll hurt them.
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
One more, QLD Reds ML -208 vs NSW Waratahs for Super Rugby now that the Aus comp starting up again
Just heavy steam at some sharper books so gonna get on now while the line is still bettable. Reds did seem a lot better pre Covid break this season and are at home, good chance it's squad news although haven't actually looked myself
Last edited by SwoopAE; 06-30-2020 at 05:30 AM.
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
Taking Sydney Roosters -3.5 -143 to go with my -1.5 altline
Main line's fine to bet til about -6, pass after. -5.5 is great, -6.5 is a definite no bet
53-33-1 +8.78u
Pending
Sydney Roosters -3.5 -143
Sydney Roosters -1.5 -175
QLD Reds ML -208
South Sydney Rabbitohs -1.5 -263
Newcastle Knights -1.5 -110
Newcastle Knights ML -128
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
Taking Carlton Blues +4.5 -110 for the AFL tomorrow, they keep moving in and market looks like it may close as a flip so getting on now while plus a few points is still available. Line was at 6.5 a day ago and opened 7.5 from memory. Looks like it's on course to close at close to a flip if i'm reading the betfair numbers right post squads etc barring any late lineup changes i'd be shocked if they close higher than 4.5
They really should have beaten Essendon by tons last week; granted St Kilda have been very impressive as well. Both sides have been great the last few wks other than the first quarter vs Dees by Carlton and after they came within a goal of Geelong that result doesn't seem as bad as it did at the time
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 21,931
you still like carloton at +3.5 or no bueno?
+105 ML?
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
+3.5 is fine market has +1.5 as fair at the moment if the line move continues on current trajectory it'll close as around a pickem it opened at +7.5 and the sharpest Aus book has +1.5 right now
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,249
So the Storm are moving Cam Smith to halfback which is interesting given he's one of the best hookers in the game and not a halfback
Carlton line seems to have stabilised around +2.5 for now still 2h to the game though