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Old 06-26-2020, 08:20 AM   #326
Dreadnaught
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

could of been a lot better if Cog hadnt had a rare off night.....+2.1



Cross Code Multi:
NRL Storm -11.5 =W
NRL Roosters -10.5 =W
AFL GWS +7.5 =W
Pays $4.11 =W

AFL Same Game Multi:
GWS +2.5 =W
Stephen Coniglio ov 20 possessions =L (still incognito)
Jeremy Finlayson anytime goal scorer = W
pays $4.33 =L

well done again again Swwop for the complete day sccop

Last edited by Dreadnaught; 06-26-2020 at 08:49 AM. Reason: will get to totals soon
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Old 06-26-2020, 10:03 AM   #327
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Added Richmond -15.5 -110 (got a better price but thats the best price avail now)

Also adding Brisbane Lions -31.5 +100

I think I want Essendon Bombers and GC Suns too in the AFL and but gonna wait for game day and Parramatta Eels and maybe Gold Coast Titans (market move i'm not so confident on Titans personally) but we'll wait and see what game day steam does for all of those ones.

Ok so grading todays ones

Record in thread 41-30-1 +0.09u

Greater Western Sydney Giants +1.5 +100
Melbourne Storm score first lead at HT and win -125
New Zealand Warriors Team Total u12.5 -167
Melbourne Storm -11.5 -143
Melbourne Storm -9.5 -161
Sydney Roosters -11.5 -161
Sydney Roosters -13.5 -147

7/7 wins all for a unit. Glad I bought the Roosters altlines, feels good when they win by exactly 14 when their main line was 15.5. They'd have won by 20+ even with their outs though if they didn't have two players tear their ACLs in opening quarter of match

Record in thread 48-30-1 +7.09u

Pending

Richmond Tigers -15.5 -110 (I got +100 but -110 is available now and forgot to record earlier so we'll go with worse price whatever)

Brisbane Lions -31.5 +100

Port Adelaide Power ML -161

Auckland Blues ML + Canterbury Crusaders ML Parlay -140

Newcastle Knights -5.5 -110
Newcastle Knights -1.5 -161
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Old 06-26-2020, 10:14 AM   #328
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

^props mate

Last edited by Dreadnaught; 06-26-2020 at 10:37 AM. Reason: well done
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Old 06-26-2020, 08:42 PM   #329
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Of course, storm win 50 to 6.
At least someone is making money here. Tear drops..of joy.

Edit: OMG, I'm the biggest donkey in the history of the world.
No wonder the book wouldn't take my bet for the opponent. I had already put a bet in for Melbourne Storm!!
Only 18.48 richer, or as they say in sport lingo, half a unit, but still ,lol.
At least I'm always good for a laugh guys.
Good day mates!

Last edited by Nepeeme2008; 06-26-2020 at 08:54 PM.
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Old 06-26-2020, 09:28 PM   #330
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Port price has drifted a bit still prefer that side but don't take the number I got as better numbers available

Others are in way good for today atm vs market finally got the Newcastle steam I was expecting
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Old 06-26-2020, 11:22 PM   #331
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Some late West Coast outs so tons of late Port Adelaide Power steam which is nice for me

All 4 games in good now (Blues part of parlay is on today too), will get the late games later too probably
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Old 06-27-2020, 01:11 AM   #332
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding Gold Coast Titans +7.5 +100

Scary as they're my team and have little faith in them but it's a decent start when the Broncos are bad at the moment too and they're steaming in
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Old 06-27-2020, 01:49 AM   #333
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Looks like Port are going to win easily and Knights are going to lose badly

Baffling the Knights are playing this badly and the Cowboys are playing this well given recent form, I guess there's a full half to play but doesn't seem likely given the score
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Old 06-27-2020, 01:50 AM   #334
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Record in thread 48-30-1 +7.09u

Assuming no major 100-1 comebacks next hour given scores will move to 49-32-1 +5.38u
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Old 06-27-2020, 05:15 AM   #335
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Took Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues o124.5 -110

Titans are going to cover, Richmond don't after those 2 graded

49-31-1 +6.99u

Blues win so that parlay remains live in Rugby

Market has a mild lean to Raiders spread but I prefer Eels so passing the late NRL for now
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Old 06-27-2020, 05:46 AM   #336
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Took some Gold Coast Suns and Parramatta Eels last minute but too late to post in thread as both games started

Let's finish strong today
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Old 06-27-2020, 09:32 AM   #337
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

49-31-1 +6.99u

Loss on the AFL over, 49-32-1 +5.89u

Eels and Suns both won close games but Eels didn't cover and I had split my bet between ML and spread so broke even, don't count for thread though as had kicked off before I could post. Fortunately decided not to play Essendon, some late Carlton steam convinced me not to and Carlton were clearly the right side should have won by 30 not 1 on gameflow it was insane Essendon nearly stole it on the buzzer

Anyway 49-32-1 +5.89u heading into Sunday hopefully we can run decent and i'm sure i'll find a few more spots. Blues won today so the parlay just needs Crusaders ML now.

Pending

Brisbane Lions -31.5 +100
Auckland Blues ML + Canterbury Crusaders ML Parlay -140
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Old 06-27-2020, 08:24 PM   #338
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Added Hawthorn vs North Melb u134.5 -110

Just a pure market move spot but I like the under in a night game and it's on the move so why not
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Old 06-27-2020, 11:28 PM   #339
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding Canterbury Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers u38.5 -111

Bankwest pitch is all torn up; Bulldogs an unders team and Wests can play either way depending on the day, think it prob closes a 36.5 where it should be imo
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Old 06-28-2020, 01:45 AM   #340
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding Cronulla Sharks +2.5 +100

That uncapped Neds promo is pretty sick atm been getting 4-5 figs down not even on a whale act

I don't love this Sharks spot that much personally since Manly have more heart and structure but Manly are so ravaged by injury at the moment market really likes it so i'll take it I guess, market's headed down to +1.5 atm

Very lucky to cover the Lions bet it was 95% to win at half time then like 25% at 3Q time then it gets home
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Old 06-28-2020, 01:52 AM   #341
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

49-32-1 +5.89u

Brisbane Lions -31.5 +100
Auckland Blues ML + Canterbury Crusaders ML Parlay -140

Both wins

51-32-1 +7.89u

Pending

Hawthorn vs North Melb u134.5 -110
Cronulla Sharks +2.5 +100
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers u38.5 -111

I'm on Geelong Cats -10.5 in the AFL game on now but didn't have a chance to post it so won't count
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Old 06-28-2020, 04:18 AM   #342
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

All the late money's for the Bulldogs. Has been all week. Feels so wrong but that sheer weight of money has to be sharp. I'm passing because my personal lean is the other side though but anyone who wants it at 4 or better...
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Old 06-28-2020, 07:22 AM   #343
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

51-32-1 +7.89u

Hawthorn vs North Melb u134.5 -110
Cronulla Sharks +2.5 +100
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers u38.5 -111

Two wins and a loss respectively 53-33-1 +8.78u

Annoyingly I lost money this week despite profiting in thread due to a poor MMA card and some poor luck re betsizing with a few winners being smaller and a few losers being bigger.

Slightly annoyed I didn't trust my personal opinion on the Wests tigers game but the sheer weight of steam on the Bulldogs forced me to pass in case the market knew something I didn't, not every day a side steams in 3.5 points then loses by 28 lol

Last edited by SwoopAE; 06-28-2020 at 07:39 AM.
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Old 06-30-2020, 05:16 AM   #344
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Ok took a few spots for this week early so far, I have a few others I like but waiting to get on so won't post yet

Sydney Roosters -1.5 -175

I think Radley is a big out, but their replacement is fine etc and getting Tedesco and Morris back makes their backline so much deadlier

I was actually going to consider going with the Storm here but then Cameron Munster, their main playmaker, got injured last week and is out. The Storm's 1-5 is great too now, although not quite Roosters level, but their halves, there is a big gap from Keary+Flanagan to Jacks + Hughes. Forward packs are pretty close too but I think the roosters just win here on the back of having James Tedesco back and the best number available was an altline, although crossing the 1 may be more important here than usual due to how often the Storm and Roosters have close games I really think the Roosters will just be too good here at full strength except for Radley when Munster is out for the Storm and that's so much bigger (the Roosters other out Verrills doesn't really matter as Jake Friend can play 80 mins at hooker anyway and they can just put another forward on the bench instead)

South Sydney Rabbitohs -1.5 -263

Took another nice altline here, tbh I like the -10 as well but the price on -1.5 here is just ridiculous when they'll close -400ish h2h

Rabbitohs can be inconsistent and have struggled against top teams but they'll tear the Bulldogs apart the way they have against the other weak teams they've faced since lockdown ended, the Bulldogs just have no points in them and struggle to score more than 12 vs anyone. I'll probably get a Bulldogs TT under or total tries under here as well at some point or the main spread

Newcastle Knights -1.5 -110
Newcastle Knights ML -128 (was -115 a few minutes ago but was -128 by the time I bet it so I guess that'll have to do)

Manly looked badly out of sorts without Trbojevic and Walker last week and I expect them to be below their best again. Newcastle had a horrible first half before rallying against the Cowboys to lose but it's just one bad half, i'm going to chalk it up as an aberration and Bradman Best is returning for them too to effectively be full strength. It's technically a Manly home game but the Central Coast is actually closer to Newcastle and they'll have more fans in the reduced capacity stadium so it's actually closer to being a Newcastle home game than a Manly one

I think the Knights will close at -2.5 to -4 here so getting on early. I rated Manly a lot a few weeks ago but they had an off day against the Broncos then lost their best player and a key half and looked horrible against the Sharks. I still think they make finals if Trbojevic can recover quickly from his injury but they'll be in rough shape vs top 8 sides over the next few weeks and I think the Knights are a top 8 side this year. Manly's 1-5 are quite bad without Trbojevic and with Garrick playing out of position and it'll hurt them.
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Old 06-30-2020, 05:22 AM   #345
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

One more, QLD Reds ML -208 vs NSW Waratahs for Super Rugby now that the Aus comp starting up again

Just heavy steam at some sharper books so gonna get on now while the line is still bettable. Reds did seem a lot better pre Covid break this season and are at home, good chance it's squad news although haven't actually looked myself

Last edited by SwoopAE; 06-30-2020 at 05:30 AM.
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Old 06-30-2020, 07:38 AM   #346
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Taking Sydney Roosters -3.5 -143 to go with my -1.5 altline

Main line's fine to bet til about -6, pass after. -5.5 is great, -6.5 is a definite no bet

53-33-1 +8.78u

Pending

Sydney Roosters -3.5 -143
Sydney Roosters -1.5 -175

QLD Reds ML -208

South Sydney Rabbitohs -1.5 -263

Newcastle Knights -1.5 -110
Newcastle Knights ML -128
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Old Yesterday, 05:53 AM   #347
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Taking Carlton Blues +4.5 -110 for the AFL tomorrow, they keep moving in and market looks like it may close as a flip so getting on now while plus a few points is still available. Line was at 6.5 a day ago and opened 7.5 from memory. Looks like it's on course to close at close to a flip if i'm reading the betfair numbers right post squads etc barring any late lineup changes i'd be shocked if they close higher than 4.5

They really should have beaten Essendon by tons last week; granted St Kilda have been very impressive as well. Both sides have been great the last few wks other than the first quarter vs Dees by Carlton and after they came within a goal of Geelong that result doesn't seem as bad as it did at the time
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Old Yesterday, 10:44 AM   #348
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

you still like carloton at +3.5 or no bueno?
+105 ML?
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Old Yesterday, 11:57 PM   #349
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

+3.5 is fine market has +1.5 as fair at the moment if the line move continues on current trajectory it'll close as around a pickem it opened at +7.5 and the sharpest Aus book has +1.5 right now
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Old Today, 03:37 AM   #350
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

So the Storm are moving Cam Smith to halfback which is interesting given he's one of the best hookers in the game and not a halfback

Carlton line seems to have stabilised around +2.5 for now still 2h to the game though
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