Lol. Swoop just has to analyze the matches, do all the homework and post it for all to see without any personal benefit for himself. That's all.
But he's right Swoop, I too sometimes have a hard time figuring out what matches you're talking about.
And it would be nice if I could soon improve my personal tailgating record.
1 for 3!! We need to step up our game boys.

quick ref list folks

NRL
1 Brisbane Broncos
2 Canberra Raiders
3 Canterbury Bulldogs
4 Cronulla Sharks
5 Gold Coast Titans
6 Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
7 Melbourne Storm
8 Newcastle Knights
9 New Zealand Warriors
10 North Queensland Cowboys
11 Parramatta Eels
12 Penrith Panthers
13 South Sydney Rabbitohs
14 St. George Illawarra Dragons
15 Sydney Roosters
16 Wests Tigers

AFL
Adelaide-Crows
Brisbane Lions-Lions
Carlton – Blues
Collingwood - Magpies
Essendon – Bombers
Fremantle-Dockers
Geelong-Cats
Gold Coast - Suns
Greater Western Sydney-Giants
Hawthorn-Hawks
Melbourne-Demons
North Melbourne-Kangaroos
Port Adelaide-Power
Richmond-Tigers
St Kilda-Saints
Sydney-Swans
West Coast-Eagles
Western Bulldogs-Bulldogs

Super rugby aoteoroa list

Auckland Blues
Wellington Hurricanes
Canterbury Crusaders
Waikato Chiefs
Otago Highlanders

Normally there are teams from other countries but with covid New Zealand are running their own comp this season

yeah i often need to spend a minute or two on secondary google searches figuring out what exactly i'm looking for

Man there is a chance they will make Essendon play this week but 9 players from their back line will not be allowed to play due to them training with the guy that tested + for the coronies and be forced into isolation.
To put that in context that would be a third of their starting line up

Insane and no idea how they can run a book on this game if it happens

Yeah I mean it's gonna be tough for Essendon to catch up their delayed fixtures later in the season if they miss too many; one alternative would be to give each side half the points until the side is back at capacity but to be fair, it's Carlton they're not one of the better sides even with a ton of outs there's a non zero chance it could be a competitive game

It would suck for Essendon though as the Demons and Blues are two of their easier matches, they've had a soft draw so far in the season and if they're going to be playing finals really need to be 4-0 after four rounds because all of the sides they've played so far (including the cancelled game and the pending game this round) shouldn't make the top 8

I'm reading rumours now they're investigating a false positive and that the players think they're fine as social distancing/hygiene measures were used at the gym so we'll have to wait and see what happens re the Essendon game this week

To be honest I think they should move all the Victorian clubs (after testing all players and staff) to WA/QLD/SA as there are appropriate stadiums in Brisbane, Gold Coast, Perth and Adelaide - if you hold 2 games at each of the Gabba, Metricon, Optus Stadium and the Adelaide Oval that should be fine then you could hold the last one either at the WACA or even in Launceston/Hobart in Tasmania if Hawthorn or North Melb want to relocate to Tasmania since they play a few home games there each season anyway, at least until there's no community transmission in Victoria

NSW and Victoria are way behind the rest of the states in Aus when it comes to Covid, community transmission's basically been eliminated in all the other states and there are very few new active cases, Vic seem to be going backwards and NSW aren't quite safe yet either

In the NRL The Storm could easily temporarily relocate to either the Sunshine Coast (their QLD Cup reserve grade squad Sunshine Coast Falcons has a stadium and plays there so they have ties to the community) or Brisbane (Suncorp is probably the best stadium in Australia and could easily hold a second game each round) as well

Bunch of sides I like at first glance this week but going to give it a day or so for squads/lines to stabilise

I hear ya swoop

The other thing AFL are floating is testing all earlier in the week on the Tuesday to allow a 48 hour incubation period (like McKennas was after first negative result) which seems to be flawed in logic whereas I dont think there is a set time for incubation documented as yet hence the two weeks isolation required?

crazy stuff and please god let us still have sport!!!!!

Ok taking my first few NRL spots and AFL for the weekend found some nice altlines etc and some main lines as well on a few

Sydney Swans +1.5 -110

Swans are steaming in and at home should close favs unless momentum reverses on betting steam etc

South Sydney Rabbitohs +2.5 -120

I really rate Souths and while Penrith are def more legit than I thought initially I think this is a coinflip game

Melbourne Storm -11.5 -143
Melbourne Storm -9.5 -161

Storm are gonna absolutely ruin the Warriors, Storm coming off a loss and at home and full strength and pissed off, Warriors in disarray, sacked coach and have no defense. Would be surprised if Warriors lose by less than 20

Sydney Roosters -11.5 -161
Sydney Roosters -13.5 -147

Roosters are gonna absolutely ruin the Dragons too they're on fire atm and playing with no mercy, Eels played great and are a top 5 side and they just ruined them as well, Dragons are a bottom 5 side and their scorelines the last 2 weeks have been very flattering compared to gameflow. I expect the Roosters to score at least 5 or 6 tries here and doubt the Dragons get more than two

FWIW -13.5 Storm and -15.5 are the best main lines currently available for those games both of those are fine too, obv try not to cross even numbers but would still lean those sides even if we had to I think both absolutely obliterate their opponents in horrendous mismatches this round

Got a few other leans but some are going against market steam so waiting for lines to settle etc

Missed out on Port Adelaide spot, they're steaming too but no urgency now so gonna wait see what happens I got a little -2.5 but it wasn't available on a public book at time I bet it so doesn't count for the thread I don't think we can count exploiting American PPH books w small limits for thread purposes gotta be a mainstream aussie book that at least takes four figures per game etc for a fresh account

Ugh I suck +2.5 +100 available for Souths game

I'm obv maxing it myself but yeah better price available than I posted, have to stick to what I first post obv tho

Ok I don't think it'll overreact any further due to Bradman Best being out so gonna take some now

Newcastle Knights -5.5 -110
Newcastle Knights -1.5 -161

Prefer the latter slightly but both are good

Yes it's in North QLD but lesser home ground advantages this season, Knights are a legit top 8 side and despite being decent on paper North QLD just aren't, still no Valentine Holmes, Knights forward pack can hang with the Cowboys and even without Bradman best their halves and backs are a lot better. I think the initial -7.5 was closer to an accurate line or -8 even, the Cowboys defense is just so bad right now I can't see the Knights putting less than 4 tries on them and that should be enough to cover.

Prob gonna be on Wests in some capacity too but early movement was other side so waiting for now. I may end up on the Titans if the number is right too but in general markets more likely to steam on the Broncos etc

Adding Port Adelaide Power ML -161

The big move was yesterday but w/e I took some myself and forgot to add to the thread

Souths moving in a bit now line is +1.5 at most books so happy I got that right

Gonna parlay up the two ML favs in Super Rugby too would be surprised if either lose this week, Crusaders are always big favs against anyone at home and the Blues are playing much better at the moment too I think both win quite easily this week so gonna parlay them.

Super Rugby

Auckland Blues ML + Canterbury Crusaders ML Parlay -140

Mild leans towards the Eels/Tigers in the NRL but haven't found the right spot to fire yet and market's been mildly moving the other way overall. Sort of want to be on the Sea Eagles too but market's going the other way there too, Sea Eagles have been decimated by injuries (especially Tom Trbojevic) but their defensive structure is so much better than the Sharks. Might wind up leaving it along especially if it continues to drift but i'd be shocked if I don't end up on the Eels and Tigers in some capacity in the NRL by gameday

In the AFL there's a bit of GWS Giants steam, but haven't got involved there as of yet. I think I lean towards the Suns and Lions too in some capacity but haven't got involved yet

Just some leans incase anyone is interested but i've posted all of the bets i've made so far in thread now

Quite happy with my NRL bets especially so far, and the market is steaming the Sydney Swans so I guess i'm in good on the AFL too


Here's where we stand going into the new week. Somehow I have 3 altlines at exactly -161 lol

My Storm altlines are roughly equivalent to -13.5 -110 and my Roosters altlines roughly equivalent to -15.5 -110 for what its worth EV wise as those were the main lines when I bet them, I just bought a couple points on both games.

41-28-1 +2.39u

Pending

Sydney Swans +1.5 -110

South Sydney Rabbitohs +2.5 -120

Melbourne Storm -11.5 -143
Melbourne Storm -9.5 -161

Sydney Roosters -11.5 -161
Sydney Roosters -13.5 -147

Port Adelaide Power ML -161

Newcastle Knights -5.5 -110
Newcastle Knights -1.5 -161

Auckland Blues ML + Canterbury Crusaders ML Parlay -140

Well with the games about to start, South Sydney Rabbitohs are now -1.5 and Sydney Swans are now -6.5 so we nailed it vs closing price now we just need both of them to win today

GL anyone who tailed along earlier in the week

Some rumours Tedesco may be out for Roosters so maybe hold up on that game although I think they win by 12+ even without him line would improve by a few pts if hes out

Let's go Rabbitohs and Swans

41-30-1 +0.09u

Both losses today although we beat the closing line by 4 and 8 points respectively just a shame they didn't actually win

Penrith are legit but they're also running so far above expectation it's ridiculous

Dragons are running way above EV too, randomly get two Roosters players out including their best player which is annoying

Roosters probably a pass now for those that didn't bet it although I do still think they cover my numbers

Couple more I like for tomorrow

Storm score first lead at HT and win -125
Warriors Team Total u12.5 -167

Quite loaded on that game now, gl us

Market likes GWS fwiw for the AFL tomorrow but I think i'm passing probably. Has come in from +5.5 to a pickem over past 36 hours or so

Pretty happy to just load the Storm, would have super loaded Roosters too but happy with what I have after two of their key players out. I still think they dominate the Dragons but the Storm are now the bigger lock of the two huge favs, I fully both expect both to win by double digits and make it look easy.

Those bets from last post are

Melbourne Storm score first lead at HT and win -125
New Zealand Warriors Team Total u12.5 -167

For what its worth forgot i'm using full team names now

Pretty brutal to beat the closing lines today by 4 points in the NRL and 8 points in the AFL and lose both. We'll get it back tomorrow

Swoop, I'm getting some horrible lines. Is -16 for storm worth it? That's the best line I can find.
Or maybe I'll just risk a buck for the heck of it.

ok, so it's after 11am in Australia. I guess it's too late to place a bet because I couldn't take the other team for the +16. error placing bet. But the game is supposed to start at 1.
No clue. Some people are sharps, others can't even get a bet in ,lol.

Sweet dreams everyone.

Hey Nep - Game starts 6pm local time here in Kangaroo land so you got time as that is about 6.5 hours from now

Got a tip from a sharp guy and market generally agrees as they've come in from +5.5 so i'm taking GWS Giants +1.5 +100 in the AFL today (+2.5 -110 is pretty similar and widely available etc)

I would prefer the Storm side on -16, market has them -16.5 at the moment so after vig thats okayish

My Altlines are the equivalent to -15.5, for what its worth, which is where the lines were when I placed them earlier in the week

Storm game is in 3h 6mins, and the GWS and Roosters games are 1h 50 mins and 1h 55mins after the Storm game.

Market has Storm -16.5, Roosters -15.5 (has come back from -17.5 due to two players out incl their best player although they're still infinitely better than the other side and should win easily) and GWS +1.5 approximately at most books - if you can get better than those numbers it's fine to bet them if not probably pass

Record in thread 41-30-1 +0.09u

Pending spots at the moment

Greater Western Sydney Giants +1.5 +100

Melbourne Storm score first lead at HT and win -125
New Zealand Warriors Team Total u12.5 -167
Melbourne Storm -11.5 -143
Melbourne Storm -9.5 -161

Sydney Roosters -11.5 -161
Sydney Roosters -13.5 -147

Port Adelaide Power ML -161

Newcastle Knights -5.5 -110
Newcastle Knights -1.5 -161

Auckland Blues ML + Canterbury Crusaders ML Parlay -140

Cross Code Multi:
NRL Storm -11.5
NRL Roosters -10.5
AFL GWS +7.5
Pays $4.11

AFL Same Game Multi:
GWS +2.5
Stephen Coniglio ov 20 possessions
Jeremy Finlayson anytime goal scorer
pays $4.33

Storm 22-0 at the half ...after first 14 minutes included 3 injuries and virtually no possession ..goggogo

Well done on the Storm game sweep Swoop

Sigh...so Coniglio decides to go to his special place with midgets and champagne etc and get 4 possessions to the half when he was a buck 37 to get 20 for the game