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Old 06-15-2020, 09:21 AM   #251
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Taking some early lines I like will post a bunch when i'm on everywhere
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Old 06-15-2020, 09:28 AM   #252
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Yeah, just when I decided to come aboard we go on I down swing.
I think I jinxed you guys.
Or, we need someone else to take over. I subscribed to the nrl channel on YouTube to do my own home work. Spoiler!! Just kidding Swoops!
I only stopped doing my own due diligence/ lost interest because of the stoppage in games/ covid thing.
I think it's great what you're doing here. Keep it up!

As a side note, I think I'm actually becoming a fan. Once you understand the rules better, this is a cool sport.
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Old 06-15-2020, 11:01 AM   #253
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Wests Tigers +1.5 -110 (+2 when I started getting on but at time of posting +1.5 -110 is best line available)

Wests Tigers ML +105

They should be decent favs here and are already favs on some books

I like Souths too but have to figure out whether i'm going their ML spread TT etc
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Old 06-15-2020, 11:34 AM   #254
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Taking Richmond ML -222 I just don't see them losing more than a quarter of the time to Hawthorn

Definitely love the Wests Tigers spot crazy to get them as underdogs I expect they close -2.5 and 1.73ish, we'll see though

I like the Titans and Rabbitohs but holding out hoping to get Titans +4.5 and I like the Rabbitohs but line seems static will get on it if it starts to move but doesn't seem to be going anywhere

I got on some not available anymore North Melbourne and GWS Giants lines earlier at -3.5 and -6.5 but for a tiny amount at a book that doesn't take big bets so we can't count them for thread as those prices not available on a major book

I think I want Essendon and maybe the GC Suns as well but will wait and see for those what happens with lines
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Old 06-15-2020, 11:56 AM   #255
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding Essendon -113
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Old 06-16-2020, 07:06 AM   #256
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Taking Souths -222 and Souths -6.5 +100 (promo line 2.00 pickems @ neds this week) although if the thread thinks that's unfair i'll grade it at -110 via b365 line or whatever instead

Locking in Titans +4 -110, looks like it probably isn't getting to 4.5 after all back to 3.5 at most books

I make Souths more like -8.5 and the Titans game maybe +1.5 or so personally

Think Wests close at least -2.5 they're already at -2 some books

Valentine Holmes is a big out for the Cowboys especially with their leaky defense that's my spot of the round at the initial 2.05 I got they should close 1.7ish or so

Mild Penrith steam coming but i'm not going to touch it I actually kinda lean storm and may hope to get a -1.5 altline or nice ML price if it keeps moving to Penrith. They did impress me against the Eels but the Storm are back in form and on paper are a much better side

Eels line is getting ridiculous too but Roosters steaming so gonna hold off and hope to get +8 or 8.5 even I get that the Roosters probably win by 6 or so but the Eels will make a game of it
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Old 06-16-2020, 10:28 AM   #257
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

honestly have trouble following a little because don't know all the nicknames like wtf is the souths? but the beauty of a $1 8 game parlay is it's lol money and so -EV it's perfectly fine if i got the wrong side or a bad line

lfg swoop
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Old 06-17-2020, 03:59 AM   #258
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding Knights -5.5 -110

It's 6.5 on most books but one of the main aussie books at -5.5 which I like would pass at -6.5

Love your parlay there rickroll obv its not a great number on Wests given they were tiny dogs when I bet and pickem as recently as yesteday on some books but -2.5 at some already etc

gl

Your Richmond numbers pretty horrible vs market too but they'll win so whatever - actually a few of the prices are super iffy but w/e right sides imo gl

Souths is what people refer to South Sydney Rabbitohs as back in the day, Sydney Roosters were Easts, Wests Tigers pre merger were Wests, North Sydney Bears were Norths so there was Norths, Souths, Easts and Wests as four of the teams (referring to the part of Sydney they're from obv)
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Old 06-17-2020, 07:42 AM   #259
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE View Post
Adding Knights -5.5 -110

It's 6.5 on most books but one of the main aussie books at -5.5 which I like would pass at -6.5

Love your parlay there rickroll obv its not a great number on Wests given they were tiny dogs when I bet and pickem as recently as yesteday on some books but -2.5 at some already etc

gl

Your Richmond numbers pretty horrible vs market too but they'll win so whatever - actually a few of the prices are super iffy but w/e right sides imo gl

Souths is what people refer to South Sydney Rabbitohs as back in the day, Sydney Roosters were Easts, Wests Tigers pre merger were Wests, North Sydney Bears were Norths so there was Norths, Souths, Easts and Wests as four of the teams (referring to the part of Sydney they're from obv)
yeah whichever skin ACR uses is pretty limited and so for a US based group it's pretty slim pickens for your isle games and often see the lines are super bad for me but figured it'll be fun to toss in some parlays also wouldn't be surprised if this thread moves those numbers hard and I'm just late to the party ie the Knights are -8 right now for me

thanks for the explanation as well, when i played rugby in college the captains kept trying to urge me to watch rugby and i felt like that would get in the way of my weed smoking so sadly didn't, hope just echoing you here for a while some will sink in and eventually end up watching - already happened in soccer/golf/esports so figured it's a proven gateway drug to embracing a new sport i frankly am fairly embarassed to have played yet never seen a game from start to finish

but i'll wait until i see a play and already know whether it's rugby or aussie rules before betting enough to make me watch one

Last edited by rickroll; 06-17-2020 at 07:50 AM.
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Old 06-17-2020, 10:06 AM   #260
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Rick, I haven't personally tried it, but imagine watching Rugby high!
I think we both missed out.
Never too late though.
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Old 06-17-2020, 10:14 AM   #261
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Adding Roosters -5.5 -110 with the intention of middling later maybe if it crosses 8 (its around -7 at a lot of books but -5.5 still at one aussie book) I kind of want to be on the Eels if it gets to 8 or more, but the Roosters are pretty amazing right now and are clear favourites to beat any side. I think the Eels will be in this all the way but the Roosters get over the line. Mostly taking this one because it's still available and i'm confident a middle will be available on gameday

Knights -1.5 -161 again I think this is better value than the ML and I like the spread too. Broncos have Pangai back so are only missing Fifita now from their forward pack but he is their equal best forward and they're missing Staggs again too plus Turpin is still out. I think the Knights should be about -6.5 which is where it is on some books but -5.5 which is still available and this altline are both solid

Knights are basically full strength now and will be looking to hit back after a loss to the Storm. As long as their forward pack holds up and I think it will, Ponga and co will get the job done at the back

Storm -1.5 -154 really like this altline, I think the Storm beat the Panthers in a competitive game but much better value here than the ML or spread. The Panthers did impress me against the Eels but still gave up a 10 point lead and they've struggled late in games. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they lead early before losing the game in the final 20 mins.
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Old 06-17-2020, 10:17 AM   #262
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

If you can get Broncos +8 fwiw a ton of books have better numbers on the other side if you can middle with Knights. They're still -5.5 at one of the big four aussie books and -6.5 at the rest (which is about a fair line probably, i'd lean Broncos at 8.5, 8 not sure think the Knights win by 7-8 a lot if I had to set a fair line)

NRL side my favourite spot of the week is the Wests Tigers one followed by South Sydney Rabbitohs

On the AFL side my favourite spot is Essendon

Also, 2 key Richmond players are out so the line's moved to like -160 do not take -2xx, I still think they win but am obviously in bad there now (Dusty Martin is the key player who's out, they have another minor out and one minor in, but Martin out shifted the line about 6 points)

I may wind up being on Richmond on game day still at a drastically improved price - I managed to nail a cashout on my Richmond line as the news broke and lost like 7% or so on the cashout but it's worthwhile given how large the price move is, will be better of rebetting game day if I take that side, will still grade thread at original unfortunate price obv
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Old 06-18-2020, 04:08 AM   #263
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

HAW V RICH
B.Houli Ov 20 possessions
G-Castagna - anytime goal scorer
Total points ov 129.5
Pays $3.75

D.Rioli anytime goal scorer
J.Gunston anytime goal scorer
D.Prestia over 20 possessions
Pays $4.55

KNIGHTS V BRONCOS
Total points ov 34.5
Knights +1.5
E.Lee anytime try scorer
Pays $3.40

Last edited by Dreadnaught; 06-18-2020 at 04:19 AM.
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Old 06-18-2020, 05:30 AM   #264
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Taking Richmond lead at HT and win -101

Obv my initial bet price is bad (in reality I managed to sell mine on team announcement) on Richmond but still think they roll the Hawks today

Got Knights at a ton of different altlines in the NRL winning by about 6 is the breakeven point and by 7 I scoop heavily
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Old 06-18-2020, 09:22 AM   #265
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Win on NRL today and a loss on AFL

Pretty big on Souths tomorrow line's steamed already though. Hoping to snag a nice price on a Storm altline maybe but will leave it if Penrith steam too hard, Addo-Carr out a moderate but not enormous loss for the Storm
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Old 06-18-2020, 10:20 PM   #266
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Market loves Souths today. I added some Souths -1.5 -238 today to go with my main spread at -6.5 and moneyline from earlier in the week, so i'm on them at a ton of different numbers. I think the spread closes at at least -10.5 if I had to guess i'd be surprised if it doesn't and I think they win by 13+ usually.

It's also leaning Penrith but I lean the other way there so passing for the time being

No idea on the AFL it moved in favour of GWS early before moving to Western Bulldogs and now it's been static for a while so i'll probably trust the late steam whatever that may be
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Old 06-19-2020, 02:11 AM   #267
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

One last swing posting these and if no joy I will go back to lurking and enjoying Swoops insights

BULL v GWS
Stephen Coniglio ov 20 possessions
Sam Lloyd anytime goal scorer
Jack Macrae ov 20 possessions
Pays $3.30

SOUTHS V NZ
Dane Gagai anytime try scorer
Total point ov 35.5
Souths -5.5
Pays $3.12

And all 6 of the above
Pays $10.20
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Old 06-19-2020, 03:15 AM   #268
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Taking GWS/WB afl u138.5 -115

Decent unders move some nice numbers still available etc

Those tryscorer and goalscorer lines are vigged to hell as are most same game multis Dread - if you want first tryscorer stuff keep an eye out for things like Beteasy's super boosted lines often some value there otherwise you'll probably do better sticking to sides and totals unless you're betting direct AFL possession props or whatever which is obviously fine too if you're an expert in that area (i'm not a stats guy in afl so I don't bet any props there, I do have useful NRL insight but not so much for AFL more just trusting markets there and taking good numbers)
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Old 06-19-2020, 03:46 AM   #269
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

yeah i find myself teasing the totals and sides too much (when possible) and then search historical stats on possessions and scorers to get $3 minimum ....probably an absolute novice crapballs approach especially with history in relation to current events being so whacked at the mo

thanks for the advice and will take on board for sure

GL!
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Old 06-19-2020, 05:05 AM   #270
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Going some Western Bulldogs +3.5 -111 to go with my under that game

Some late ins for them/outs for Giants and they've come all the way back in looks like it may close a pickem or so

Not a real opinion just tailing market small etc

Pretty happy with Souths first half should win easily from here and happy with Souths+Wests as my two biggest bets of the weekend
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Old 06-19-2020, 05:23 AM   #271
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

any chance of Gagi joining the party please?

6
TRIES
South Sydney Rabbitohs tries achieved by:
Campbell Graham 9'
Adam Reynolds 24'
Braidon Burns 29'
Alex Johnston 39'
Cody Walker 45'
Damien Cook 50'
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Old 06-19-2020, 06:02 AM   #272
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

nope....the orange boy, the chick at the kiosk,the dude that applies the liniment all score tries but no Gagi

I will now fade into night and leave with this gem i put on before swoops advice was heard

PEN V STORM
total points under 40.5
PEN+12.5
Viliame Kikau - anytime try scorer
Ryley Jacks - anytime try scorer
Pays - $57
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Old 06-19-2020, 06:27 AM   #273
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Yeah u gotta stop with try parlay stuff its all horribly -ev except for some of beteasys boosted tryscorer props

Adding Titans +4.5 +100 for tomorrow

Glad I left the Storm here gut said Storm, Market said Panthers +4.5 so I went with no bet

Decent start in the AFL for WB and Unders lets gogo. Early in week liked GWS but with the late outs and steam switched sides etc
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Old 06-19-2020, 06:51 AM   #274
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

anytime try scorers have now been ejected from the stadium with a lifetime ban

Under looking strong mate .....I need also (que 100 point reduced quarters second half record)
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Old 06-19-2020, 06:55 AM   #275
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

feeling another Gagi coming on with Lloyd

BULL v GWS
Stephen Coniglio ov 20 possessions - 14 to half time
Sam Lloyd anytime goal scorer
Jack Macrae ov 20 possessions - 16 to half time
Pays $3.30
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