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Old 06-13-2020, 03:11 AM   #226
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Shame Lions faded late thought they'd cover

The Titans/Rabbitohs under just holds was so far behind but good defense late and we just hold. As I said, overs game but 44.5 is just so many lol landed on 44

Carlton look terrible early. I have a middle on Melb/Newcastle game if Melb win a close one but eff nothing at risk there late money came from Newcastle

Adding some Raiders lead HT and win -120 to go with my altline so let's make that an official bet too I like it above 1.8
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Old 06-13-2020, 05:35 AM   #227
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Nice comeback by Carlton there too. Let's go Raiders!
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Old 06-13-2020, 07:39 AM   #228
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

18-14-1 +1.03u

Carlton +10.5 W
Brisbane Lions -17.5 L
Titans/Rabbitohs u44.5 W
Raiders -1.5 -208 (fine to -7.5 main line imo) W
Raiders HT/WIN -120 L

21-14-1 +1.72u after today

I actually won tons today though as I was super heavy on Raiders -1.5 and it's the 2nd leg of my two major parlays this week, one has Roosters -5.5 and Sharks -1.5 altlines left for one and for the other other just Sharks -1.5, to win 2.4 and 2.5u so got a huge Sharks sweat tomorrow

Pending for tomorrow we have Sharks -5.5 -110 and Sharks -1.5 -161 the -5.5 still widely available if anyone wants it and I really like it, bit worried it came back from 6 to 5.5 today but even if a player's out late i'd still bet it. I make the Sharks side as listed -10 for this game

We also have Roosters -16 from memory (shoulda had -15.5 early in wk but wanted to get on before I posted it so posted the price that was available at time I took for thread)

Gonna hunt around for Bulldogs u2.5 tries or u12.5 pts somewhere see if I can find a nice line too
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Old 06-13-2020, 07:43 AM   #229
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Found Bulldogs u12.5 -116

Excellent value there and still available on one major aussie book if anyone wants it
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Old 06-13-2020, 07:56 AM   #230
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

LOL the Suns are gonna win by 40+ here as +5xx underdogs

Insanity
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Old 06-13-2020, 08:01 AM   #231
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Moylan out for Sharks. Still think they're a steal at -5.5 or -200ish ml

Ok so we have Sharks -1.5 and Sharks -5.5 and Roosters -16 and Bulldogs TT u12.5 for tomorrow atm

More to come i'm sure
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Old 06-13-2020, 10:03 PM   #232
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

GWS V NM
S.Coniglio- 20 or more possessions
B.Cunnington - 20 or more possessions
Total points - ov 140.5
Pays $4.35
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Old 06-13-2020, 10:07 PM   #233
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Super rugby

Blues o3.5 tries -120

Roosters Bulldogs delayed until tomorrow due to a players kid going to school that had a covid case while he gets tested etc super unlikely the player has it but best to be safe
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Old 06-13-2020, 10:14 PM   #234
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

coat-tailing you on this one Swoop
Blues o3.5 tries
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Old 06-13-2020, 11:00 PM   #235
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Markets been liking overs and blues so figured it's a good prop and nice price vs market

No AFL yet today so guess ill be watching union til the sharks game after ufc
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Old 06-14-2020, 01:38 AM   #236
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

ah that glorious feeling of missing by half a point and 1 possession

oh well glutton for punishment

SYD-ESS
Total points - ov 134.5
J.Lyod - 20 or more
T.Papley - anytime goal scorer
Z.Merrit - 20 or more
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Old 06-14-2020, 01:52 AM   #237
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

another swing for the fence

Sharks to win
total points un 45.5
J.Raimen - anytime try scorer
Pays $6.50
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Old 06-14-2020, 01:56 AM   #238
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

That Blues game was ridiculous, 3 tries with 25mins left and a healthy lead and they kick 3 penalty goals then are attacking the line right at the end and fail to score. Feels like I had the right side but very annoying it went o28.5 (their team pts total yet tries went under somehow)

GL Sharks, market's back at -4.5 or so (same thing as -5.5 basically with how nrl scoring works 5 is semi worthless) due to Moylan being out but I still really like the Sharks to get the job done here
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Old 06-14-2020, 03:48 AM   #239
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

good to finally hit one with 3 minutes left
SYD-ESS Multi = W

last game
STK V DOGS
M.Bontempelli - anytime goal scorer
S.Ross - ov 2o possessions
T.Membrey - anytime goal scorer
Pays - $3.50

Last edited by Dreadnaught; 06-14-2020 at 03:56 AM.
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Old 06-14-2020, 04:27 AM   #240
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Welll that was a very poor day

I'm on St Kilda TT overs and match over for AFL but got it like 30secs before game so didn't get to post it
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Old 06-14-2020, 08:44 AM   #241
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Taking u42.5 for Bulldogs/Roosters at -110

Added some Bulldogs u2.5 tries -175 as well nowhere near as good as the early u12.5 line but to be honest I think they score over 2.5 tries probably less than a third of the time maybe around 25-30% or so

I don't see the Bulldogs scoring more than 12 points very often at all and it'll often be 6 or even 0

I'm also going to take a flier on Bulldogs score 0 points +1100 I think that happens well over 10% of the time. They'll get exactly 0 or a single try a lot I think.

Will update after tomorrows game but slightly in the red after today's posted spots unfortunately.

I think the Roosters win like 34-6 or something a lot tomorrow if I have to pick an exact result. Wouldn't surprise me if they won 32-0 or 50-0 though or 30-12 or whatever isn't that unlikely but 42.5 does seem a tad high even though the Roosters will slice through the Bulldogs and score 5+ tries a lot, I think this is a 7 try match as 'par' so 42.5 is slightly too high but I drastically prefer

Tolman's out too now, the Bulldogs just don't have any advantages anywhere, they did defend better last week vs the hapless Dragons but i'd be shocked if they have more than a try or two in them at absolute max against the Roosters elite defense. Roosters should put on 5-6 tries or so on average, and Bulldogs 0-2

I think the Bulldogs defense will hold up a bit in the first half then concede a bit more in the second but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 12-0 or 12-6 Roosters HT score before it winds up 38-0 or 32-6 or something

Let's see how it goes I guess. The Sharks loss today hurt, I stood to win over 5 units if it got up due to closing a couple multi leg boosted parlays. I do feel good about the Bulldogs not scoring very many points though
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Old 06-15-2020, 02:40 AM   #242
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

any further late leans for tonight Mr Swoop?
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Old 06-15-2020, 04:04 AM   #243
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

going with another teased multi

Bulldogs total points un 17.5
Roosters -13.5
Total points un 44.5
Pays $3.03
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Old 06-15-2020, 04:58 AM   #244
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

and

J.Tedesco anytime try scorer
Roosters +1.5
Total points un 48.5
pays $2.90
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Old 06-15-2020, 05:11 AM   #245
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

lol ...7 minutes in and this is going to be a bloodbath and looking to go way over...doh

not quite preying for the power to go out just yet but feels close already
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Old 06-15-2020, 05:56 AM   #246
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

most likely talking to myself here but now still alive on second multi with J.Testicle covering already ,roosters a gimmie and slim chance of un 48.5
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Old 06-15-2020, 06:51 AM   #247
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

slim was right...cover by half a point

second multi tonight = W
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Old 06-15-2020, 06:52 AM   #248
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Annoying way for the under to lose, Bulldogs TT unders were a lock and Roosters got up

Annoyingly had a lot on u42.5 and it died to a garbage time try after looking bad early, but whatever onto the next one

Super frustrating weekend could have easily been a big winning weekend but lost a few with seconds left etc the ones decided right on full time didn't break my way
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Old 06-15-2020, 07:17 AM   #249
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

Ok so for official plays

21-14-1 +1.72u

After grading Blues, Sharks and Roosters games (Blues tries over loss, Sharks 2 bets lose, Roosters game we win side and the two team total unders, and lose the match under in the dying seconds)

24-18-1 -0.19u

I didn't really specify whether that +1100 flier was an official bet for the thread (I did specify the St Kilda team total and over weren't, they went 1-1 anyway), i'm gonna say not but if it is we can lower our results by an extra unit to -1.19u. Moving forward I won't bet anything more than -500 or +500 for official thread purposes as they'll skew records too much if we hit a big underdog or lose a big fav and in reality I size way down on big favs/dogs in terms of the to win and risk respectively but will still post leans on big favs/dogs etc if I think something's value - but I won't count anything above or below -500/+500 towards our results and it should be fairly rare I post anything like that. Bulldogs to score 0 was definitely +EV in hindsight, they didn't score until the final quarter of the game but I only had like 0.1u to win 1u and change approx on it in reality anyway so w/e

So we'll call it 24-18-1 -0.19u for now, dipped into the red for the first time after a heater to start, hopefully get back on track this week with some nice wins

I did get some super early GWS and North Melb lines that I knew would be off market due to their results as North won and GWS's opponents looked like garbage and GWS had already lost, but not gonna count them for the thread as the numbers I got weren't widely available and I only got on small through a niche PPH book
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Old 06-15-2020, 08:38 AM   #250
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Re: Australian Sports Thread (AFL, NRL)

rough start to thread for me but will keep swinging for a while

2-9-0 = -3.2U
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