AFL late game
Dockers V Eagles

@ 3.10
Andrew Brayshaw To Get 15 or More Disposals (averages 17.0)
Brad Sheppard To Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 16.3)
Liam Ryan Any Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.5)

@ 2.80
James Aish To Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 17.2)
Elliot Yeo To Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 18.2)
Oscar Allen Any Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.5)

@ 3.10
Darcy Tucker To Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 17.5)
Tim Kelly To Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 20.5)
Michael Walters Any Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.3)
Matthew Taberner Any Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.5)

plus all of the above @ $27.50 for .2U

got to admit this is my least fav set up for the whole round

Result

@ 3.10 L
Andrew Brayshaw To Get 15 or More Disposals (averages 17.0) W
Brad Sheppard To Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 16.3) W
Liam Ryan Any Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.5) L

@ 2.80 L
James Aish To Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 17.2) W
Elliot Yeo To Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 18.2) W
Oscar Allen Any Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.5) L

@ 3.10 L
Darcy Tucker To Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 17.5) L
Tim Kelly To Get 15 or More Disposals (avg 20.5) W
Michael Walters Any Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.3) L
Matthew Taberner Any Time Goal Scorer (avg 1.5) W

plus all of the above @ $27.50 for .2U L

Ended up getting Hawthorn and West Coast spreads for a loss and a win but forgot to post was busy. Ran bad with sizings today was huge on the Penrith game over which meant I lost for the day but they made a ton of errors and Cowboys defended better than they usually do I guess. Unfortunately also had the Chiefs spread and they blew a 24 point lead which is pretty lol for Rugby Union

Grading here is a cluster**** as I had yesterday graded but forgot to hit submit evidently so just gonna re-grade the whole week

Before this week

78-53-1 +10.26u

St George Dragons -6.5 -143 L
Parramatta Eels -6.5 -143 L
Sydney Roosters -11.5 +100 L
Newcastle Knights +1.5 +100 W
QLD Reds -12.5 -139 L

Roosters lead ht win -182 L
Geelong Cats +2.5 -110 L

Hurricanes -1 -118 W

Brisbane lions ml -111 W

Newcastle Knights +2 -116 W

Wests Tigers -1.5 -162 (fine til -5.5)W
Wests Tigers/Brisbane Broncos o34.5 -111 L
Western Bulldogs h2h -130 W

Cronulla Sharks -1.5 -162 W
Cronulla Sharks -1.5 -154 W
Penrith/North QLD Cowboys o43.5 -111 L
Penrith -11.5 -162 W
Penrith -15.5 -116 L
Penrith Panthers/North QLD Cowboys o42.5 -114 L
Penrith/North QLD o7.5 tries -125 L

9-11 -4.02u for this week if I got that that right if I ever make an error anywhere in thread and anyone notices please point it out

87-64-1 +6.24u after the week

Couple Parramatta eels spots

Eels lead at HT and win -125
Eels score first lead at HT and win +140

I was hoping for a -5.5 spread but opened at -7.5 and it's -8.5 now at Bankwest I think they beat up the tigers they're coming off a loss but getting 3 key players back and the tigers while a lot better recently have still only been beating bad teams and the 48 0 win against the broncos says more about the broncos than it does about the tigers

The score first one has that extra variable but at +140 I don't mind it as if they get the first try the rest will usually follow and they'll get the first try 60 percent or so according to the market but I think it may be close to 65 percent

Eels are full strength for the first time in a while and should dominate I'll probably get on in some other capacity too

Eels lead at HT and win but don't score first so 1-1 breakeven

87-64-1 +6.24u

becomes

88-65-2 +6.24u

Adding

Manly Sea Eagles score first lead at HT and win +210
Manly Sea Eagles ML -159

Cowboys defense was better last week, but Manly have a decent backup five eighth in Cade Cust and have Fonua Blake back. They're basically full strength except for Trbojevic and coming off a huge win over Manly, they have to win this for their finals chances.

That said, the Cowboys were better last week in defense than I expected. Penrith did make a lot of errors though and only really Cleary played super well. The line's moved from -2.5 to -4 though so getting on Manly now anyway.

I got on the Gold Coast Suns +6.5 today, they lost by 5 so covered, was a hell of a sweat but it was just before kickoff so didn't get to post

Have broken the 'losing Thursdays' curse of the past few weeks though at least (in reality had a ton more on Eels lead ht win than on score first lead ht win)

Not sure what i'm going to take for the other games tomorrow. Mild move to Waratahs so far, for the Storm game I want Staggs to be out before I dare take Storm at a huge number or a Broncos TT under if he's in I may even wind up on the Broncos hating life lol

AFL is tough, Richmond are such a good side and did flog GWS in the Grand Final last year, but because of that GWS will be very motivated even if they've been out of form the last few weeks and Richmond are missing several key players from memory. Will prob stay away from it.

Waratahs -1 -115 for super rugby today

Adding GWS Giants ML -172

Richmond side decimated with players out and while I hate the idea of fading Richmond, GWS are at home, Richmond are massively understrength and this is a revenge game for GWS for last year's grand final etc

Storm/Broncos o41.5 -111

Storm to score first lead HT win -182

GL us

Manly bets won so off to nice start

^good work El Capt

Solid day today, I was lucky today the Waratahs was my smallest bet in reality too and the others all won

On to tomorrow will get a few tonight or tomorrow morning

just wondering how you weight your bet amounts?

88-65-1 +6.24u (just realised I graded a second push for no reason I think sometime this past week by mistake)

Storm/Broncos o41.5 -111

Rain had me scared in the first half as radar seemed clear but it cleared up and won easily. Apologies for late post for those that tail only took it a couple mins before the game as there was a weather sweat

Storm to score first lead HT win -182

Got there easily in the end although first half was close

Manly Sea Eagles score first lead at HT and win +210

Another nice win, never really in doubt

Manly Sea Eagles ML -159

See above

Waratahs -1 -115

Our lone loss for the day, two yellow cards changed the course of the game basically was close until the first yellow. Oh well onto the next. It did close at -2.5 after opening +1 at least

GWS Giants ML -172

A bit close for comfort but won by 12 and did cover as well (closing line was -9.5; I had some -8.5 too but preferred h2h)

Richmond are such a good side to come this close away with so many star players out, Richmond actually had more scoring shots but GWS accuracy and defensive grit got them home

Wouldn't be surprised to see these two sides along with some combo of Brisbane, Collingwood and Port as the final four at the end of the season. I guess West Coast has a chance too but only really if they play in Perth in the finals etc

88-65-1 +6.24u
5-1 +4.95u so far for the week

93-66-1 +11.19u

Nothing pending yet but expect to be on either total tries over or Roosters total tries over/team total over tomorrow, I liked Sharks but with Dugan out would only take it if they steam tomorrow now as I got burned by them last time vs Dragons and AFL gonna wait on some info.

According to perceived edge + in cases where i'm maxing (which is most of the time) my ability to get money down on a particular spot - it varies wildly some spots you cant even get 1k down other spots you can get decent 5 figures down etc

In general though google 'half kelly' I don't follow that exactly but it's a decent guideline. I have an idea of what I think my edge is on a particular spot and try and size accordingly for example i'm sizing down on 1.5% edge, firing a unit or so on a 3% edge or will obv try and get multiple units if I can if I have a 10% edge or whatever - in a lot of cases I can't get down as much as I want so I just max it on any books I have available to me at the time and then that's my sizing obv

As general advice though size up when you have a bigger edge and size down when you have a smaller edge

For example let's say I make a the fair value of an NRL line +1.5

I might make a small bet at +2 (it's a valuable point to cross), a standard to decent size bet at +2.5 or if i'm getting +4 or more i'm going to go hard and just max away because i'm confident even if I get too much on I should usually be able to middle/arb some later if need be, or just hold it all at a big edge if the edge is large enough that my bankroll management allows me to do so

There's actually a couple decent spots on the Roosters game available now on various books but I wouldn't be able to get much down due to which book it is and the standing of my account there so i'm waiting til tomorrow and should be able to get a full unit or more on, and if it moves i'll find some correlated value somewhere else. Hitting it now would just get a few hundred bucks accepted and move the line.

Carlton Blues -10.5 -110
Sydney Roosters/NZ Warriors o7.5 tries -124

Roosters team o5.5 tries -149

Might be some rain early but it should clear imo and the Roosters should still run away with this even without their starting second rowers they're miles better everywhere

Cronulla Sharks ML -107

Got some St George TT under 20.5 last min but wont count it as its kicked off

93-66-1 +11.19u

Three losses to start Sharks ML pending

93-69-1 +7.36u

93-69-1 +7.36u

Sharks ML wins

94-69-1 +8.36u

Nothing pending but expect to be on Knights and Titans in some capacity tomorrow. Would be surprised if I don't end up on the Lions too

Newcastle Knights score first lead at HT and win -133

Brisbane Lions ML -175 (got -172 but its gone now so will record at that)

Collingwood +4.5 -110 (got mix of +5.5 and +4.5 but its on the move only bet it a cpl mins ago not sure think +3.5 +100 is avail so close enough we'll count the +4.5 for thread but not the 5.5)

Also took the Gold Coast Titans +12.5 -110 and Titans ML +400 on a book that auto pays out if they lead by 16

Titans should make a game of it at home with 4 Panthers starters out including 3 key players. Should have got it earlier in the week, opened 16.5 but 16 was available for ages etc

Horrible game from the Knights so far

94-69-1 +8.36u
94-70-1 +7.03u

Pending

Lions ML
Collingwood +4.5
Titans +12.5
Titans ML

titans vs roosters has titans +22.5 -110 on BM, is that the same game?

nup it was Titans V Penrith Panthers and Titans did cover the +12.5
Game result 14-22

Thats next week

Roosters are obv a top side not sure on line need to see squads first etc

This week Titans lost by 8 so they covered but didnt win

94-70-1 +7.03u
Coll L, Titans spread W ML L

95-72-1 +5.93u

Just Brisbane Lions in play now. There is a monday game tomorrow no idea if ill take anything or not

95-72-1 +5.93u
Lions win
96-72-1 +6.93u

Had a good Thu/Fri and a not so good Sat/Sun this week

Fremantle Dockers +11.5 -110 for today