doh ..hail mary actually had a little hope

PEN V STORM
total points under 40.5 - W
PEN+12.5 -W
Viliame Kikau - anytime try scorer -W
Ryley Jacks - anytime try scorer -L (gagied)
Pays - $57

so long as there is a method based on deep knowledge/models etc then keep posting away

i love swoop's contributions too but it's good to get differing perspectives - especially when you guys inevitably end up on different sides because that's where the real magic happens

common theme and will be adjusting accordingly

BULL v GWS
Stephen Coniglio ov 20 possessions W
Sam Lloyd anytime goal scorer L (gagied)
Jack Macrae ov 20 possessions W
Pays $3.30

Ya enjoying others contributions etc

Ok adding a few more for AFL

North Melbourne ML -172
St Kilda +14.5 -110
Brisbane Lions ML -120

NRL today we already have Wests Tigers and Titans bets pending from previously in thread

Will be middling my Roosters -5.5 bet later probably currently can get +7.5 +100 but will hold on for the time being incase +8 becomes available so for now holding Roosters still

Need to do some grading will do in a sec

Before Round
24-18-1 -0.19u

Richmond ML -2.22u (sigh Dusty Martin don't get injured next time plz)
Richmond Lead ht win -1.01u
Souths ML +1u
Souths spread +1u
Souths -1.5 +1u
Knights ML +1u
Knights -1.5 +1u
Storm -1.5 -1.54u (forgot I posted this earlier in wk or would have middled due to late steam ah well)
GWS/WB under +1u
WB spread +1u

New tally 31-21-1 +2.04u

Pending

Wests +1.5 -110
Wests ML +105
Titans +4.5 +100
Titans +4 -110
Roosters -5.5 -110

Essendon -113
North Melbourne ML -172
St Kilda +14.5 -110
Brisbane Lions ML -120

Market is +4.5 now for Titans so don't take +4

Also a warning it's against steam + the team I cheer for so I may have some bias but I think that today's game will be close to a pickem vs Dragons

obv Wests current number is a lot worse now due to all the steam but fine to take til about -3.5 if anyone wants them or maybe -155ish after that pass imo

Ugh annoying better line available now on North due to late mild drift, Ben Cunnington late out. Oh well

Still think they should win but dumb didnt get best line

About -155 is available if anyone wants it thats decent imo or to -7.5ish otherwise pass at the number I got

Adding Titans game u44.5 -110

Again it's an overs game but i'll back u44.5 on almost any combination of teams at the moment. Would snap o41.5, but crossing 42 and 44 is just so big it's the sort of game that will land on 42 or 44 again a ton like last week I mean that's 8 tries 6 conversions and it still goes under + any 7 try game can't be on overs at that sort of number

Market seems to think 43.5/44 is fair so i'm happy with u44.5

Adding Chiefs ML -149 and Crusaders -6.5 -111 for today's Super Rugby

I think both favs get it done

also dreadnought, it's fairly standard to keep a running tally of units won/lost as well

Will do next time Rick

AFL player tested positive so probably bye bye AFL for at least a few weeks

Doh

Essendon game delayed due to the coronavirus test so thatll void probably

Adding Wests score first and win +140

Huge Wests steam in that game it's just crazy

Shame about the AFL positive test hopefully it's just that one player and isolated etc he caught it in Ireland etc prob but if anyone else gets it it'll be gg to afl for a bit

32-24-1 -0.78u after Titans and North games

Injuries wrecked the Titans game but they did play badly too

Hopefully Wests Tigers can get it done my biggest bet of the weekend and ridic good vs market

Nice east win for Wests Tigers

Going Carlton +25.5 +100 late game and Brisbane Lions ML -108

Glad I decided to middle my Roosters bet yesterday due to steam

Going Raiders first game mix of -175 straight and -1.5 -154 will count both for thread

32-24-1 -0.78u

Chiefs -1.49u
Carlton +25.5 +1u
Bris Lions +1u
StK spread -1.1u
Roosters spread +1u
Wests ML +1.05u
Wests spread +1u

37-26-1 +1.68u

Let's go Crusaders and Raiders today so far, Cru -6.5, Can -1.5 and Can ML pending

Taking GC Suns ML -107 in the AFL

Nice rally from the Crusaders should cover now easily

Adding Sharks/Bulldogs o36.5 -111

Market leaning that way and Sharks are a massive overs team due to poor defense and good attack. Dogs are an unders team but at sub 38 gotta go with overs here, Bulldogs attack may suck but should put a couple on Sharks at least with their weird heart/motivation issues and if they don't it's probably because Sharks are playing well and running up a big score on them

Nice start from the Suns they look great

Crusaders get it done

Also obv cant edit now but glad I decided not to middle roosters yesterday obv they're just so good steamed nonstop start to finish and somehow win easily even though Eels played well


38-26-1 +2.68u after Crusaders cover

Raiders ML -175
Raiders -1.5 -154
Suns ML -107
Sharks/Bulldogs o36.5 (37.5 is fine too not a vital pt) -111

all pending

Swoop, I often see different scores in () for your isle games

like Gold Coast v Adelaide is right now 9.7 (61) - 1.2 (8)

i'm guessing the (61) and (8) is the only one that matters for our purposes?

In play bet u137.5 -115 (neds) freo vs port adding on. We'll make it a play but idk maybe keep a seperate record for inplay ones idk up the thread I guess ill count it w regular ones unless anyone objects if so ill keep inplay seperate

Rain about to hit their lines badly off vs other books

The 61 and 8 are what matter yes

the others are the amount of 6 point and 1 point scores the team has

In that example the team has 9 6 point scores and 7 1 point scores for 9x6=54 points from goals and 7 points from 'behinds' for a total of 61

If anyone can get a good in play under on the freo vs port game time to get on mid 130s or so is fine rain gonna hit in 2q if radars right and that slows the scoring a lot

38-26-1 +2.68u after Crusaders cover

Raiders ML -175
Raiders -1.5 -154
Suns ML -107
Sharks/Bulldogs o36.5 (37.5 is fine too not a vital pt) -111

LLWW respectively

40-28-1 +1.39u at the moment

Just the inplay afl under pending.

I got Freo/under pregame (under number worse vs current freo at +17.5 which is obv better vs current) but didn't have time to post in thread so neither counts

ty for the explanation

i started tailing you at the wrong time and learned the hard way not to take bad lines (a few spreads that you barely won I lost) but it's nice for a clean day of wins

any chance u could post the city together w the team name every time?

Ya that's fine will do in the future

If in doubt flashscore.com.au will show the games on the front page with team names and local start times etc

Our in play rain under wins after a fast first quarter the rain came as predicted to bail us out and hit the under for the Fremantle Dockers vs Port Adelaide power game

41-28-1 +2.39u

Gonna give it a day or so for lines to open everywhere then take some spots I like for next round etc

In AFL all points are pretty equally valuable but in NRL the valuable points on sides are 1 2 4 6 7 8 10 12 then all even numbers beyond that, for totals the even numbers are valuable to cross and the odd aren't very much so crossing one one 34 36 38 40 42 44 is very valuable (or even numbers higher or lower although most totals will be between 34.5 and 44.5 depending who is playing)

yeah I know flashscore's got it, but some of my books only list the city or team name so it's double the work to check and figure out what's what, thanks