Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
I strongly disagree with everything in the above post and am huge on the Eels +1.5 for tomorrow
No crowds lower Broncos home field advantage
Fifita and Pangai are out, two of the Broncos three best forwards and Lodge, their 4th best, is a game time decision
Eels weren't super impressive against the Bulldogs and the Titans game was more the Titans folding mentally when things got tough but can't fault the Eels there
Souths played absolutely horrible against the Broncos (who had a stronger side than they have for r3) and honestly the Cowboys played pretty bad too plus Fifita had a game winning performance that game and he's out for this one.
I honestly think the Eels should be -125 favs here or so h2h and was very happy to get them at +1.5
Also Croft is not good, Milford, Staggs, Haas and arguable Carrigan are the only players where the Broncos have a head to head advantage if we're looking at the individual players 1 to 13 against their opposite number and I suppose you could make a case that Oates is as good as Sivo although he hasn't been for the past year or so
I have some Dragons h2h -166 and am likely to play a -1.5 altline or something there @ -145ish or something similar, might fire the Dragons 13+ boosted line @ +300 as well.
Have a few other leans but haven't bet yet gonna wait for final squads and to see what the markets doing etc
But yeah I saw that and just had to post that I have a large bet on the other side of that game, granted at a slightly better number (I believe market has a pickem now at most books may still be some +1.5 out there idk)
Lodge is playing he will replace Bullemor on match day. Even with Fifita out and if Lodge doesn't play they still have a superior pack imo especially with nathan Brown out which is a huge loss for Parra, Parra's bench is pretty lol bad as well.. The only place Parra are Superior 1-17 is in the backline they have great 1-5 and thats about it, Moses and Dylan Brown are not better than Croft and Milford on individual talent (my opinion) and we still don't know how their combination will work but Croft taking the pressure of Milford is pretty Dangerous considering he can just worry about being a traditional running 5/8 and Croft can do the Traditional Halfback role..
Junior Paulo
Shaun Lane
Ryan Matterson
Marata Niukore
Brad Takairangi
Ray Stone
Kane Evans
Peni Terepo
The only forwards out of that pack Id feed is Paulo and Matterson... RCG and Kane Evans in your front row rotation is not good..
Im Probably not going to touch the rest of the games not confident in any other my other picks Might have a small bet on the Tigers only reason being Sharks might be a little rattled with the Xerri doping **** going on..
Good luck for the weekend man, Its good to have the footy back..