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Old 10-17-2020, 11:29 AM   #1
CandyKreep
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Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Orlando, FL
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Average pts/gm system for over/unders

So, this is a pretty simple concept and I'm surely not the first to think it up. I'm focusing on taking what I think is the best over/under bet each week. To do this, I'm narrowing it down by taking the matchups and calculating their average points per game total (henceforth referred to as APPG) using the stats on pro-football-reference.com. Anything that is +/- 5 pts away from the over/under, I consider a candidate. I then take those candidates and attempt to narrow down the best single bet.

Here are my observations for week 6 (o/u from Bovada):

Baltimore @ Philly - O/U is 46.5, combined APPG is 52.4 for a delta of +5.9

I don't know that I trust Philly enough in this one. They surprised me last week by putting up as much points as they did against the Steelers, but not so sure that they do it a second week in a row. I could see this one going something like 31-14 Ravens and just missing the over. I mean, gun to my head I'm betting the over here, but I just don't like it all that much.

Cleveland @ Pitt - O/U is 51, combined APPG is 60.7 for a delta of +9.7

I think the APPG on this one is inflated on the Cleveland side given that they put up 49 points on the dumpster-fire Dallas D. They put up +30 on bad teams like Cinci and Washington and put up 6 on Baltimore. I just don't know that I'm ready to fully trust Cleveland yet against a winning team (last week's good showing aside). There's a decent chance this one hits the over but I'm not in love with it.

Detroit @ Jax - O/U is 54.5, combined APPG is 46.6 for a delta of -7.9

Maybe I'm just being biased towards how awful these teams are, but 54.5 seems like too much here. Detroit hasn't put up more than 30 a game this year, even against struggling defenses like New Orleans, and while I think there's a decent chance they crack 30 this week - I don't think Jax holds up their side of things. Yes, the Lions D is bad but I think some of that is skewed by how bad they got whipped by GB. I think Detroit manages to keep Jax somewhat in check. This is the one I'm liking the most.

Washington @ NYG - O/U is 43, combined APPG is 34 for a delta of -9.0

This one seems like a trap to me. Theses teams' APPGs are low because they've been playing superior opponents. Now we have two terrible teams playing each other, and NYG just coming off putting up 34 last week. Granted, Washington's defense is better than Dallas' but not by a lot. Also, I'm just uncomfortable betting an under of 43 the way games have been going this season if I'm being honest.

GB @ Tampa - O/U is 55.5, combined APPG is 65.8 for a delta of +10.3

This one feels slightly trappy too, though not as much as Wash/NYG. Yes, GB has put up over 30 a game with 40+ in 2 contests. This was against bottom defenses and now they will be going against a better D. And we saw how Tampa's offense fared against a top 10 D last week (19 points) and they're up against a similar challenge with GB. There's a decent chance this hits the over, but I don't think it's a slam dunk.

Betting 2 units on Det/Jax under 54.5

Last edited by CandyKreep; 10-17-2020 at 11:35 AM.
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