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Old 04-23-2020, 03:36 AM   #1
sportsbettor_no
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Arbitrage betting

Hi,

I've been a sports bettor for several years now, whereas must of my betting the last year have been arbitrage betting. I just wanted to share my thoughts to see if other share the same ones, or of course to see what those who disagree with me think. The pro's about arbitrage is of course that it is in theory 'risk-free' betting, but the key word here - theory.

Bookmakers has today enormous amount of data and algorithms that allow them to change the odds quickly, meaning that once you have placed an arbitrage bet on one side, then the odds on the other side might change, meaning you've lost your opportunity for a risk-free bet. If you end up with that scenario that the odds is changed, and you lose your, let's say $100 bet, then you need to win 100 bets to make up for that 1 bet (if the bet is a 1% ROI). Another negative thing is the fact that bookmaker might void the bet for whatever reason (because they can).

I can see how it works, as I mentioned I have been doing arbitrage betting for almost a year now, but on those bookies that it has actually worked and I've been doing good, of course they either limited me or banned me!!

The bottom line, arbitrage betting; do not like it and I don't recommend it.
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Old 04-26-2020, 08:00 PM   #2
solring
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Re: Arbitrage betting

Thanks for the info that you gave on your one and only post.
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Old 04-26-2020, 11:21 PM   #3
SwoopAE
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Re: Arbitrage betting

Arbing is only for people who can't deal with variance because your square books get banned just as fast if not faster than they would otherwise but you give half or more of your profit back at the sharp book/exchange for no reason.
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Old 04-29-2020, 04:00 AM   #4
sportsbettor_no
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Re: Arbitrage betting

Solring, what does it matter that it's my only post so far? I've just joined if you haven't noticed.

SwoopAE, excatly, and being it's so much variance in sport and especially football, I don't find it the best way to be doing sports betting.
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Old 04-30-2020, 02:19 AM   #5
Degens
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Re: Arbitrage betting

Arbitrage by definition is risk free. It's tough to argue that doing something risk free is not a good idea.
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Old 04-30-2020, 04:45 AM   #6
sportsbettor_no
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Re: Arbitrage betting

Degens.

Well the problem is that it isn't though, is it really risk-free if the odds could drop drastically straight away after you've place a bet on one of the sides?
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Old 04-30-2020, 04:53 AM   #7
SwoopAE
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Re: Arbitrage betting

I wrote up a huge post but it can be summed up like this

If the max bet on the market is 500 bucks and you have a 5% edge and the 'arb' sharp book side is -2.5% for example, you should really just be taking the 500 bucks on the 'right' side unless your bankroll is less than ~20k because that's what half kelly says to do. If you're constantly getting 5% edges like in this example, you'll simply never go broke and will maximise bankroll growth that way (well, full kelly will technically maximize BR growth so you could max it on 10k, but that is a lot higher variance and can take a while to recover your bankroll if you run bad early - most people would recommend half kelly for BRM)

Now of course if you have a $1500 bankroll and can still get 500 bucks on then sure, take the 500 and arb/middle most of it off - but you should be leaving a max half kelly risk amount on the 'correct' side of the bet to maximize EV
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Old 04-30-2020, 07:22 AM   #8
sportsbettor_no
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Re: Arbitrage betting

SwoopAE

Exactly, but that's just value betting. That's without the doubt what I have the most faith in regarding betting. Of course you can have one or two people that have a huge talent, for instance "Parlay Patz" and his skills with accumulators.

But for the most of us I think value betting is the way to go. Me personally has done value betting for a couple of years, but I've always gotten help from sites such as:
https://www.tradematesports.com/ and https://www.betonvalue.com/. Either that or you can try to find value yourself, but that requires a lot of data and a lot of work.

But I would love to hear if anyone got a better strategy than value betting.
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Old 04-30-2020, 09:45 AM   #9
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Arbitrage betting

isn't Parlay Patz broke and in jail for threatening athletes on instagram
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Old 05-06-2020, 08:54 AM   #10
sportsbettor_no
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Re: Arbitrage betting

DefNotRsigley

Yeah that's not because of his sports betting though. That's because he's stupid
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