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Old 06-24-2012, 09:12 PM   #851
BrianLaverty
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
Read here.

Professional gambler for 7 years now but won't bet more than 2K on a game so obviously been crushing it.
I'm confused... I am small time because I only bet around 1-2k a game? You don't take into account that someone has a family and just doesn't feel comfortable betting more then that? I have another job where I work with Autistic kids at a group home, and just don't feel the need to risk money that I can't afford to lose. Its pretty obvious that you don't have a family to support or else, I think you would understand a little better.

I started with very little, and built it up to 6 figures.

http://imageshack.us/f/525/balancexz.png/

And again, do bets like these makes me baller? or just irresponsible?

35964318-1 9/11/09 10:51pm $2,875.00 $2,500.00 $0.00 Loss 9/11/09 9:00pm College Football Colorado/Toledo 2nd Half Under 27˝ -115
35963984-1 9/11/09 10:48pm $2,875.00 $2,500.00 $0.00 Loss 9/11/09 9:00pm College Football Colorado/Toledo 2nd Half Under 27˝ -115
35963614-1 9/11/09 10:46pm $2,750.00 $2,500.00 $0.00 Loss 9/11/09 9:00pm College Football Colorado/Toledo 2nd Half Under 27˝ -110
35963472-1 9/11/09 10:45pm $2,750.00 $2,500.00 $0.00 Loss 9/11/09 9:00pm College Football Colorado/Toledo 2nd Half Under 27˝ -110
35963184-1 9/11/09 10:44pm $980.39 $1,000.00 $0.00 Loss 9/11/09 9:00pm College Football Colorado/Toledo 2nd Half Under 27 +102
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Old 06-24-2012, 09:14 PM   #852
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by MikeSki View Post
BrianL, how do you explain your recent downswing? Variance or have you capped differently recently? serious question.
Its been my worst month of betting in my life... down 30K.... I've been pressing more then I ever have before and absolutely hate the fact that I've lost others money.

Actually took the weekend off for the first time since MLB started, and really needed a short break from it.
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Old 06-24-2012, 09:15 PM   #853
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by gmcarroll33 View Post
Did all of the points Iowa! layed out go completely over your head?
haven't really read the thread since the hacking, what points did he make?
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Old 06-24-2012, 09:16 PM   #854
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

if you can bet that much at 5d clearly not a winning player therefore irresponsible

if it was at pinny then clearly baller

also posting bets from 3 years ago = clearly busted and remembering the good times when could drop 10k on a game
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Old 06-24-2012, 09:22 PM   #855
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

also i got raped the previous week with colorado state too where the guy tripped at the 2 yard line



coloraped bros forever
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Old 06-24-2012, 09:42 PM   #856
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

never ceases to amaze me how brian can say so many things that are so stupid in such rapid succession it's like one big facepalm as i scroll
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Old 06-25-2012, 10:10 AM   #857
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

olympic womens basketball qualifiers today. free money on canada as usual?

czech dominating got them -5, -16 when i woke up

lets get this free olympics money
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Old 06-25-2012, 10:46 AM   #858
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by BrianLaverty View Post
I'm confused... I am small time because I only bet around 1-2k a game? You don't take into account that someone has a family and just doesn't feel comfortable betting more then that? I have another job where I work with Autistic kids at a group home, and just don't feel the need to risk money that I can't afford to lose. Its pretty obvious that you don't have a family to support or else, I think you would understand a little better.

I started with very little, and built it up to 6 figures.

http://imageshack.us/f/525/balancexz.png/

And again, do bets like these makes me baller? or just irresponsible?

35964318-1 9/11/09 10:51pm $2,875.00 $2,500.00 $0.00 Loss 9/11/09 9:00pm College Football Colorado/Toledo 2nd Half Under 27˝ -115
35963984-1 9/11/09 10:48pm $2,875.00 $2,500.00 $0.00 Loss 9/11/09 9:00pm College Football Colorado/Toledo 2nd Half Under 27˝ -115
35963614-1 9/11/09 10:46pm $2,750.00 $2,500.00 $0.00 Loss 9/11/09 9:00pm College Football Colorado/Toledo 2nd Half Under 27˝ -110
35963472-1 9/11/09 10:45pm $2,750.00 $2,500.00 $0.00 Loss 9/11/09 9:00pm College Football Colorado/Toledo 2nd Half Under 27˝ -110
35963184-1 9/11/09 10:44pm $980.39 $1,000.00 $0.00 Loss 9/11/09 9:00pm College Football Colorado/Toledo 2nd Half Under 27 +102
Is that screenshot from 3 years ago like these colorado/toledo bets?
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Old 06-25-2012, 10:50 AM   #859
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

before 4/29/10 at least, but i'm guessing 09 too because of the footnote in the image that says copyright 2009

see last post here (thread also contains him bashing someone because they are a tout):

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/p...0740251&page=2

posted on 4/29/2010 from Brian L

Quote:
http://img576.imageshack.us/img576/6495/balance.png


yeah.. definitely not fantasy land *******.

You apparently have a fantasy view of what its really like to be a professional gambler.
what i'm guessing happened is

goes on run in either 08 or 09 thinks he's unstoppable, bets higher and keeps running hot
goes busto sometime in late 09 or early 10 (maybe on 9/11/09 chasing), maxes out credit cards, etc.
10-11 maybe bet a little but mostly spent trying to repair his marriage that has failed after his gambling addiction
gets a little income in 12, goes on good run in the beginning of season but he doesn't have much money from going busto 2 years ago so he parlays it into tout land except he does horrible, loses a lot of income from sharky, probably gambled all his money away again on his losing picks, and now he's here in a bad emotional state just like 2 years ago
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Old 06-25-2012, 11:08 AM   #860
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

oh also i'm not very smart because instead of internet detectiving i could have just noticed in the lower right hand corner his computer says the date the picture was taken

what i will add tho is i'm guessing yesterdays brianl outlash may be another fight between him and his wife over gambling that spilled over to the forums. i'm guessing he's dipping into their accounts to fund gambling again and she found out
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Old 06-25-2012, 11:19 AM   #861
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My favorite part in all of this is how much a condescending ass he's been in his stay here with all the talks like "guarantee I know a hell of a lot more about baseball than you", "lol twoplustwo and you bunch of poker ******s", "claims to be a professional gambler and can't even pay up on $1,000 bet, lol twoplustwo", constant mentions of "I'm a professional gambler" for no good reason at all, only now to have the second job with autistic kids now coming to light. To be fair, that certainly sounds like noble work
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Old 06-25-2012, 12:40 PM   #862
BrianLaverty
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by ProbablyRsigley View Post
oh also i'm not very smart because instead of internet detectiving i could have just noticed in the lower right hand corner his computer says the date the picture was taken

what i will add tho is i'm guessing yesterdays brianl outlash may be another fight between him and his wife over gambling that spilled over to the forums. i'm guessing he's dipping into their accounts to fund gambling again and she found out
Never been busto... have had 5+ figures across my betting accounts every day since early 2009.

Never have "dipped" into personal accounts for gambling money.... She knows what I do and respects it... And didn't get into a fight with her at all, but thanks....

And the plan all along was to go tout at sharkys, even before the great run to start the season.... So again, wrong.

I'll guarentee I've done more good with the money I've made in my life from gambling than you could ever imagine. You have absolutely no idea what I've been through, and what I've gained from it....

While you are busy making up stories about how you would like to create a town full of wax, I helped run a group home for 7 autistic kids who needed a good home cause there parents couldn't take care of them.

Get over yourself and realize that some people aren't all socially dsyfunctional like yourself.
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Old 06-25-2012, 12:41 PM   #863
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by gmcarroll33 View Post
"lol twoplustwo and you bunch of poker ******s",
Never called ANYONE here a ******.....
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Old 06-25-2012, 12:45 PM   #864
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

no doubt, everyone without financial problems bets at creditwagering and makes their stiff list
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Old 06-25-2012, 01:24 PM   #865
BrianLaverty
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

RSigley... check your PMs.

And I also have a question for you about tennis modeling, and as much as I had to admit it, I know you are the best person to ask.

In your personal opinion, do you think it is possible to make a successful tennis model? And if so, how would you access the psychological aspect of a match? Tennis is the sport that probably depends the most on the psychology of the player... I just don't see how you can put that in a data model to break down. Any advice?
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Old 06-25-2012, 02:22 PM   #866
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by ibetsports View Post
when the results are weird i dont know whether to believe the result or if my data or programming is bad.

from the 2007 season in NCAAF i have that if you bet every away team where there wasa pinny line you'd only be down 17 units??
if you risked .00000000000001u per bet youd be down much less than that. whyd you get a new account?
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Old 06-25-2012, 02:26 PM   #867
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by BrianLaverty View Post
And the plan all along was to go tout at sharkys

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Old 06-25-2012, 02:32 PM   #868
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by BrianLaverty View Post
RSigley... check your PMs.

And I also have a question for you about tennis modeling, and as much as I had to admit it, I know you are the best person to ask.

In your personal opinion, do you think it is possible to make a successful tennis model? And if so, how would you access the psychological aspect of a match? Tennis is the sport that probably depends the most on the psychology of the player... I just don't see how you can put that in a data model to break down. Any advice?
dont follow tennis too closely so can you give an example of how the psychology affects a match? like are you saying that some players are more apt to just give up if they get broken or lose a set? or does it come from recent form in other tourneys? or are you saying psychological in terms of how they see the game and how that match up might not be good against some other players styles?
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Old 06-25-2012, 02:52 PM   #869
BrianLaverty
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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dont follow tennis too closely so can you give an example of how the psychology affects a match? like are you saying that some players are more apt to just give up if they get broken or lose a set? or does it come from recent form in other tourneys? or are you saying psychological in terms of how they see the game and how that match up might not be good against some other players styles?
Some players are definitely much more apt to just give up if they get broken.... while others get stronger and break back.

Some players have a huge problem closing out matches, while others strive..... Its easy to see in other sports due to the fact that the games are broken up by quarters, or halves and is easily seen in boxscores.

In tennis, a match might end up going something like this: 6-4, 6-7, 4-6.... but the player might have had 5-6 match points in the 2nd set and blew them all... There really is no way of being able to show that unless you find a way to break every match down point by point.
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Old 06-25-2012, 02:52 PM   #870
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

i doubt it works too
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Old 06-25-2012, 03:01 PM   #871
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by ibetsports View Post
someone came down with ban hammer on unluckyboy in an injustifiable manner all cause he made a sweet thread in OOT.

so how can i do derivatives?

i suppose one way is to take the full game line and then take divide that by 1/4 and then use the same no-vig price from the full game line. i guess i will try that and see what happens but i doubt it works
im pretty sure Rsigley has made it abundantly clear how to go about doing this
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Old 06-25-2012, 03:02 PM   #872
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by BrianLaverty View Post
Some players are definitely much more apt to just give up if they get broken.... while others get stronger and break back.

Some players have a huge problem closing out matches, while others strive..... Its easy to see in other sports due to the fact that the games are broken up by quarters, or halves and is easily seen in boxscores.

In tennis, a match might end up going something like this: 6-4, 6-7, 4-6.... but the player might have had 5-6 match points in the 2nd set and blew them all... There really is no way of being able to show that unless you find a way to break every match down point by point.
would finding match point data be hard? ive never looked for tennis data but from watching a few matches it seems like players' conversion rates of match points/break points are well documented.
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Old 06-25-2012, 03:17 PM   #873
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Yes, very hard.

Break Points and BP Conversions don't show the whole picture.... Its not really a good indicator at all. I'm more focusing on who struggles the most on the pressure points... especially in key points like serving down 3,4..4,5...5,6..... It'll just show one break point lost, but did he lose to love? or maybe a 5-10 minute marathon game with 6 deuces?

I wish there was a way to grab points by point... like you can in play by play for MLB, NBA and NFL... but i don't see a way... except possibly from bet365 live in play.
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Old 06-25-2012, 03:40 PM   #874
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

I have received interest from a tout service for my services.

What is fair compensation? Care to weigh in Mr. Laverty?

Is it fun being on the dark side?
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Old 06-25-2012, 03:44 PM   #875
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

canada womens team is like 90-0 ATS dating back to last olympics

covering a 26 point spread by winning by 61

use that in your tout talk
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