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Old 05-22-2012, 03:37 AM   #626
Donkson
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

yeah banning them is probably over the top but it makes it pretty painful reading.
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Old 05-22-2012, 04:08 AM   #627
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

microbob, over the least few posts i really cant hide my opinion, that you arent paying attention and are incompetent, when it comes to sportsbetting.

the reason i wanted my own thread was to keep a solid and analytical database.
you are now talking about tout this and tout that and hot runs, when i have several times mentioned, that i at least want to get to 500+ sample size and obviously keeping track of z-score to show the luck factor fade over time.

you obviously have been ignorant and you cant seem to come out of your 20,50,100 sample size hot-run box (which is hard because its the trend everywhere) and pay attention what i was telling, but i still expected a rational thinking mod.
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Old 05-22-2012, 04:59 AM   #628
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Quote:
Originally Posted by tukkk View Post
but if i wish to track
- w%
- average odds
- w/l/v
- average beating the closing line
- roi
- z-score
- mean absolute error, vs pinnacle

+ all my plays would be hard to navigate in the general soccer thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by tukkk View Post
what do you mean by content?
i created my algorithms from march-december last year
then proceeded to create a scraper+analysis tools and started live-tracking
now after 157 days and 6700 games with very specific stats in my database, i feel that the next step would be to create a valid public archive
---
what i can provide is different kinds of stats, it is pretty informing and gives a general sense, what kind of stats are needed to be profitable. for example the closing line efficiency myth and mean/median absolute error are pretty important
---
i do not write any toutish write-ups, because the rational decision-making is made by a program if thats what you mean
---
i want to just create an archive that might make a big difference in my future adventures, if everything continues to work, then you can obviously tail and be happy?
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Originally Posted by MicroBob View Post
None of his explanations make any sense to me.
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Originally Posted by MicroBob View Post
I don't understand why a separate thread is so important to him at all. Geez, even in the soccer thread he can successfully go on a hot run and go tout.

If he wants the discipline, post in the thread.
If he wants to impress people to solicit high stakes backers, post in the thread.
If he wants to give free rice bowls from his awesome methodology, post in the thread.
If he wants to keep his picks organized, get an excel sheet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tukkk View Post
1) never going tout, never selling my name for peanuts
2) posting in the same thread with people, who post "hey guys chelsea is great value tonight (because i cant seem them losing tonight) @1,6 at a random UK book, when it has dropped like 15 cents is demoralizing
3) not going to go around braging or promoting whatever, just gonna do my thing in my thread
4) i have no problem sharing my picks, i know there are a billion ways to model the outcome of a soccer match ergo im pretty sure noone will figure out how i am getting whatever im getting
5) read my post, i already have a db and large convoluted excel sheets

Microbob told me via PM, if sb regs approve, i have a green light
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In short, your reasons are all over the freaking place.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post
this board has enough problems without turning into the 'I want to go tout and struggle with excel, now plz give me money' bored also.

There is no logical explanation to start giving n00bs their own thread, esp after they've posted their express desire to get others' backing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MicroBob View Post
he has done zero to warrant his own thread. Step 1 - Run Hot. Step 2 - Convince some idiot that I'm a genius who has all the answers and get him to give me money."
who am i talking to?
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Old 05-22-2012, 05:14 AM   #629
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Is short the reasons why i think i deserve my own thread:
-I have various stats i keep in my db about my games, i know 2+2 is on avg more intelligent than other forums, so maybe someone with a great analytical mind can tell me what i should include or exclude
-I have a solid in-depth overview of my general stats, so for the first time in the history of this sb forum, someone can actually see the true winrate and true edge that my picks have
-I would just be posting the picks as i get them from my model, so really no big effort for me, planning on staying here for a long time!
-and obviously the reason for all what im doing would be to keep a valid stats db in a good forum and maybe, if at the end of the year im not sufficiently rolled and i want to search for an extra backer, my thread could obviously help me in that sense
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Old 05-22-2012, 05:53 AM   #630
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

just open it then.

if it's no good, people will pour **** on you and it will get locked.

if it's good then fine.
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Old 05-22-2012, 06:36 AM   #631
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

I don't mind him having his own thread. But he is obviously full of ****. I mean if you can multiply your money by 9 every year with no risk of ruin you should not need a backer.
There is 99% chance he will stop posting before he reaches 50 picks.
"Never going tout" means nothing obviously, give the forum a million dollar freeroll if that is the case.
If you have live tracking and 6700 games in your database with very specific stats then show some interesting findings from your database. I don't care if you post useless stats but post some so people can sniff you out if you are full of it.

And by the way this whole "z-score", "odds", "%beating the closing line", "enormous database" is just the new and improved version of "25-years experience in nba", "high basketball IQ", "inside sources".

It is just another way of making a smokescreen and trying to sound like an authority. It's not that hard to sound like an authority to a noob and if all you do is post picks and a z-score you can not be distinguished from some ******* throwing darts.
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Old 05-22-2012, 07:12 AM   #632
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pretty sure at this point, that thread ain't gonna go the way tukkk thinks it will anyway.

tukkk, if you're picturing a utopian paradise where you can post 500 plays without any interference, that obv isn't gonna happen. it will be just as cluttered as the soccer thread the first time you lose 3 games In a row.

we really do have to make this happen now that I think about it tho. I know dick about soccer but you'd almost have to check it daily now, right?
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Old 05-22-2012, 07:28 AM   #633
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

hahahah , that is the funniest sticky ever.
xoxo MB
tukk , just start your thread already .
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Old 05-22-2012, 08:06 AM   #634
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by wiper View Post
tukkk, if you're picturing a utopian paradise where you can post 500 plays without any interference, that obv isn't gonna happen. it will be just as cluttered as the soccer thread the first time you lose 3 games In a row.

we really do have to make this happen now that I think about it tho. I know dick about soccer but you'd almost have to check it daily now, right?
500 plays would take me around 4-5 months, sure there would be hardcore trolling during first downswing

lol yeah certain people have touted and hyped me so high (although i havent said anything about me winning x% or making y amount of money)
its pretty bizarre now
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Old 05-22-2012, 08:21 AM   #635
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

seriously who the **** cares just make your stupid thread
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Old 05-22-2012, 09:31 AM   #636
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

yes, the drama is unnecessary, im going to make the thread later
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Old 05-22-2012, 09:44 AM   #637
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

If Z score spoorts could have a baseball thread tukkk shoukd be able to have a soccer thread.
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Old 05-22-2012, 09:46 AM   #638
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Quote:
Originally Posted by tukkk View Post
500 plays would take me around 4-5 months, sure there would be hardcore trolling during first downswing

lol yeah certain people have touted and hyped me so high (although i havent said anything about me winning x% or making y amount of money)
its pretty bizarre now
liar. 800% profit in 1 year is quite a claim.
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Old 05-22-2012, 09:55 AM   #639
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Two plus days and dozens of posts on whether or not to create a thread. Over-regulation is killing American internet gambling forums!
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Old 05-22-2012, 09:57 AM   #640
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

so ironic my country is nr 1 in the world for internet freedom
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Old 05-22-2012, 10:58 AM   #641
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Showing how a Z-Score is calculated and used is thread worthy by itself. I see tukkk finally just went ahead and created his thread (without permission, oh no!). From reading his intro post, it should be obvious to anyone that this is the type of content that should be welcome here. Well, should be obvious except...

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The mod does not know what he is talking about.
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Old 05-22-2012, 11:12 AM   #642
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

im just bitter that zscoresports stopped posting
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Old 05-22-2012, 11:19 AM   #643
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

sayhey, you have modeled soccer yourself i see?
edit : oh epl only
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Old 05-22-2012, 11:29 AM   #644
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

yes, just epl so far. hence the interest in your thread. i just started and have a lot to rework/test over the summer. im more interested in picking 1X2s
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Old 05-22-2012, 11:41 AM   #645
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

excel, z scores, traditional statistics

sounds like it should be enough to properly forecast and predict complex events

why not misinterpret some confidence intervals too while you are at it
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Old 05-22-2012, 11:47 AM   #646
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Tukkk, I told you to include content and not just make it about picks. You are already doing that. Your thread is already better than you said it was going to be. If you had said that in the first place instead of repeating all of your incredibly lame reasons over and over I would have encouraged you to start the tread right from the start.

Insulting me is not the best way to prevent me from merging it with the other thread though. If the thread sucks or or it seems better with the other thread will consider merging it.

"I have a lot of content to post in addition to my picks and I think people will find it interesting" = great. Go ahead and give it a try in your own thread.

"I'm trying to get a high stakes backer and need the discipline" = Ummm, so what? Nobody cares. There is no reason to have your own thread for that.


Hope that is rational thinking enough for you. Sorry you don't understand any of the tout arguments being prepresented. I don't know how that is exactly but you have misinterpreted pretty badly there.
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Old 05-22-2012, 03:40 PM   #647
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

How long are the best bet threads going on? I was under the impression it would just be a month or two
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Old 05-22-2012, 03:54 PM   #648
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I dunno, until I get tired of doing them? I only have another few days of school until summer, and it only really annoys me sometimes after a long day having to grade so summer will be easy with really nothing to do.

there will be a week in July where I'll probably close it, but other than that we'll probably keep doing them for a while.

once you start doing something you get used to it, and it's slowed down since the shutdown but people seem to like it, so I'll keep doing it probably forever.

lol me.
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Old 05-22-2012, 04:07 PM   #649
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Quote:
Originally Posted by ProbablyRsigley View Post
3 point dog easily wins, under still covers after moving 9 points

get this free wnba money before they take it away like total bases
what's with the steam on seattle tonight
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Old 05-22-2012, 04:21 PM   #650
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

6 too high IMO i was on it earlier too. have 4 about fair prolly unload more on seattle if it moves back even tho i have a lot already and BM won't let me rebet on their +5 line after betting +5.5 earlier for some reason
been fading tulsa/ny steam a couple times today tho. when i think i'm done betting it moves back. tho i did manage to get pho -4.5 when limits were lifted which was nice

all totals are killed now tho
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