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Old 05-17-2012, 07:56 PM   #551
HolidayInTheSun
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by BrianLaverty View Post
Slacking? Not really.... Unlucky? VERY.

6.5 Unit Swing on this game: http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?...cago-white-sox

Had White Sox ML for 3 Units... up 6-0 going into the 6th before a ridiculous meltdown.


Another 7 Unit swing on this game: http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?...ouis-cardinals

Cardinals left a runner on 3rd in a tie game in the 9th, 10th and 11th innings....


5.5 Unit swing on this game: http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?...sburgh-pirates

Had under 7.5... 2-2 going into the bottom of 8th and 2 of the worst offenses in the league combine for 5 runs & 2 home runs in 1.5 innings... including 2 blown saves.




Good ole' variance.... But I obviously expected it, as an initial downswing I think goes hand in hand with first starting to go tout.
Why is it that your -10 unit run since going tout is variance, but when you were up 10 units (and not beating the closing line) that was not variance?

I was actually not paying attention...were all your winners crushing by 3 or 4 runs, or were some of those close as well?
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Old 05-17-2012, 08:05 PM   #552
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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i don't want to pile on, as i said i think you're a pretty good person...

but how do those newsletters goes after day after day of losses? like what do teh subscribers say?

that's gotta be awkward. and you've already alluded to that in one of our conversations ---the pressure to be good.

how's all that going now? i seriously interested.
They understand.... I've communicated with pretty much all of them on a one to one basis.... The season is long, and most of the people who are subscribed know my track record and have been following me for 5+ years. And as you know, as bad as my record is, I've lost most of those units on two bad days (1-3 and 1-5 days)....
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Old 05-17-2012, 08:11 PM   #553
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by HolidayInTheSun View Post
Why is it that your -10 unit run since going tout is variance, but when you were up 10 units (and not beating the closing line) that was not variance?

I was actually not paying attention...were all your winners crushing by 3 or 4 runs, or were some of those close as well?
We can debate this til the sun comes up... but some people CAN cap a game, win and not beat the closing line. And for the contest... all lines were from Pinnacle, and I would have to email wiper at the same time for all my plays everyday so it wasn't difficult for him. Many of my bets are made the night before and I'm usually ahead of the line moving. They weren't even close to the lines I was actually getting.... on both sides of the spectrum. I'm glad the contest is over so I can stop worrying about Pinnacles lines.

And yes... many of my winners were EASY winners.... Not just 3-4 runs, but I had numerous games where I hit the over by the 3rd-4th inning, and unders with the final score of 2-1 and 1-0. I got lucky and unlucky during my initial streak.... In the last week, its just been pure unlucky. There will be other weeks where I get lucky numerous times, and not get unlucky. I've been doing this long enough to know that the swings in sports betting can be crazy..... I've had 3 10K +/- streaks in the last 2 weeks...
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Old 05-17-2012, 08:12 PM   #554
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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I like how Sharky's site includes all the plays before he went tout in his record.
I was posting the picks on Sharky's before we started charging for them.... which is why the record is included.
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Old 05-17-2012, 08:26 PM   #555
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by BrianLaverty View Post
We can debate this til the sun comes up....
Debate what? That your winners are skill and the close losses are variance?

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Old 05-17-2012, 08:28 PM   #556
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by BrianLaverty View Post
We can debate this til the sun comes up... but some people CAN cap a game, win and not beat the closing line.
Obv I'm not like you b/c when I load up on a game and the line moves against me beyond something negligible, I have a huge cluster in my head of WTF - I've yet to master your disposition of nonchalance

Last edited by DodgerIrish; 05-17-2012 at 08:30 PM. Reason: I like how you replied to everyone but me, you're lazy yo - not cut out for the tout game ... up your BS Son
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Old 05-17-2012, 08:36 PM   #557
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post
Debate what? That your winners are skill and the close losses are variance?

I'm not gonna debate anything with you.... You lack reading comprehension.

"I got lucky and unlucky during my initial streak..." as I said two posts before you...
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Old 05-17-2012, 11:52 PM   #558
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

wnba starts tonight lets do this all over sparks andf that under
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Old 05-18-2012, 12:34 AM   #559
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Probably, potle meetup week from tomorrow lets get this medium salsa
.
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Old 05-18-2012, 03:08 PM   #560
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball




best bay to breakers costume?

Last edited by sayhey69; 05-18-2012 at 03:31 PM.
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Old 05-18-2012, 04:26 PM   #561
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Telling najdorf off for lacking reading comprehension may actually be the stupidest thing you've said in this forum. A number of other doozies are way up there too of course. But that one is certainly in the running.

Also, why were you going out of your way to contact wiper and do the pinny lines, etc when you had no stake in the bet at all? Nothing was in it for you. Genuinely curious why you even cared since you weren't into enough to take the bet yourself.
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Old 05-18-2012, 05:03 PM   #562
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by BrianLaverty View Post
I'm not gonna debate anything with you.... You lack reading comprehension.

"I got lucky and unlucky during my initial streak..." as I said two posts before you...
care to explain?
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Old 05-18-2012, 06:20 PM   #563
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Also, why were you going out of your way to contact wiper and do the pinny lines, etc when you had no stake in the bet at all? Nothing was in it for you. Genuinely curious why you even cared since you weren't into enough to take the bet yourself.
Cause they asked me to?
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Old 05-18-2012, 06:42 PM   #564
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

LOL Bob. The guy obviously had intentions of going tout. Thus he benefits massively from the publicity of demonstrating a winning record.

Full disclosure, I have never forgiven Bob for hurling insults at me causing others to infer that I am a dog**** sports bettor. He probably doesn't even remember but I never forget these things.
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Old 05-18-2012, 07:31 PM   #565
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Just like I don't forget that you asked for me to be banned for posting in a bookie related thread
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Old 05-18-2012, 08:33 PM   #566
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

You're welcome Brian.

I notice you mentioned including writeups in all 3 of your tweets today
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Old 05-18-2012, 09:22 PM   #567
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DodgerIrish View Post
You're welcome Brian.

I notice you mentioned including writeups in all 3 of your tweets today
Lol +1 that's what I was saying as well
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Old 05-18-2012, 10:17 PM   #568
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

sparks score 0 points in first 6 minutes. wnbaaaaaa
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Old 05-18-2012, 10:33 PM   #569
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Tom, thought we were cool. No idea you have been carrying some weird grudge. Thanks for letting me (Ummm, and everyone else) know. Good post!
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Old 05-18-2012, 10:43 PM   #570
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

variance only occurs when you lose not when you win

amiright
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Old 05-19-2012, 12:05 AM   #571
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

3 point dog easily wins, under still covers after moving 9 points

get this free wnba money before they take it away like total bases
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Old 05-19-2012, 07:57 AM   #572
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by ProbablyRsigley View Post
variance only occurs when you lose not when you win

amiright
precisely!
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Old 05-20-2012, 03:50 PM   #573
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

hey guys, i thought of creating a new thread to publicly track my bets
i have a sophisticated model, would post mainly pinnacle and asian openers on soccer totals, which i beat by a good margin
can provide all kinds of stats/graphs later on, make a solid thread
sb regs support this idea?
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Old 05-20-2012, 04:16 PM   #574
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Old 05-20-2012, 10:10 PM   #575
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

no

just post them in the soccer thread like the other 6/7 people that spam the thread with their picks.
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