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Old 04-25-2012, 06:53 PM   #401
MicroBob
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Naj - The writer was clearly referring to before you receive cards and you are placing your initial bet.

Mostly seems like he was simplifying card-counting % of victory to some EV/profit type of thing so that it could make sense for those who don't understand the nature of blackjack and just assume that the player is generally around 50/50. When he calls a 51% chance of winning is where he really means the shoe is positive enough to give the player a slight edge (1% I guess).

Either that, or he's just a total idiot about that as well as DMMx speculates and may be correct.

Anyway,
Player generally has a 42% chance of "winning" the hand. But because of the ability to win more than you initially bet via either blackjack (3:2 payout), double-downs or splits, he is calling it 50/50'ish.

But yeah, having an actual 50% chance of truly "winning" the hand very rarely happens. And when it does it is a MONSTER opportunity for the player because you still also have the opportunity to win more than you initially bet.

When a card-counter has an improved chance of making a greater profit in the hand you are looking at maybe getting all the way up to a 45% chance of actually winning the hand PLUS the increased likelihood of blackjack or achieving success in double-down or split situations, etc.

I'm hoping the writer just assumed it was too complicate to explain that all out in detail and that it would be lost on the majority of his readers if he tried.
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Old 04-25-2012, 07:04 PM   #402
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by MicroBob View Post
Naj - The writer was clearly referring to before you receive cards and you are placing your initial bet.
Any professional or serious amateur who doesn't have a better than average chance [12-1] of knowing about certain times when an Ace is coming should consider going pro at roulette instead.

There are any number of legal techniques to give you much better odds of identifying those times. Your EV in such hands is 42.08% [6D]. Even if you might be off by a card, at an empty or half-empty table, you can play 3 seats and get a 14% EV overall.

Seems like it might be worth learning a few methods if one spends 8-10 hrs/week playing 21. Even if you can manage it only once every 8hrs, that's a massive add to your BR over time.

Now that I think about it, I'm not sure how high the eWin is but perhaps you can calculate it since I gave the EV figure.

Quote:
Anyway,
Player generally has a 42% chance of "winning" the hand. But because of the ability to win more than you initially bet via either blackjack (3:2 payout), double-downs or splits, he is calling it 50/50'ish.
44%, 8% push, ~5% blackjack, but who's counting?

Last edited by NajdorfDefense; 04-25-2012 at 07:18 PM.
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Old 04-25-2012, 07:45 PM   #403
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post
Any professional or serious amateur who doesn't have a better than average chance [12-1] of knowing about certain times when an Ace is coming should consider going pro at roulette instead.

That's not really related to the initial point of the example he was trying to communicate.


Thanks for the correction on the percentages.
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Old 04-25-2012, 11:45 PM   #404
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Pretty sure you're higher than that when you start with an Ace.
This is of course true, but I was speaking in relation to the linked article which was talking about card counting and win%. I assumed the author was talking about basic card counting (i.e., hi/lo). I suppose he could be hinting at ace tracking (or even holding a side count for aces, or some other high level counting system), but I highly doubt it based on the rest of the content in the article and on the website.

As always, I could be wrong.

Good catch though, and good point.

Edit: I reread that awful article and the author doesn't really say anything too specific about what type of counting, so I guess you could be right that he is identifying win% associated with some deeper knowledge than a simple count.

Last edited by DMMx69; 04-25-2012 at 11:55 PM.
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Old 05-11-2012, 11:55 PM   #405
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

BRIAN L UPDATES IMMEDIATELY

LETS DO THIS
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Old 05-12-2012, 02:18 AM   #406
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Brian went tout? Never saw that coming.
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Old 05-12-2012, 09:13 AM   #407
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Who broke total bases?
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Old 05-12-2012, 09:46 AM   #408
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

That was the longest 2 weeks of my life. What did everyone do when they weren't refreshing for updates?
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Old 05-12-2012, 09:47 AM   #409
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Who broke total bases?
yeah what the hell. hoping total bases linesman is on vacation
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Old 05-12-2012, 09:54 AM   #410
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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yeah what the hell. hoping total bases linesman is on vacation
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Dear Sir,

Our traders have informed us that now we are suspending offering total base players props.

However we may offer them again in the future and certainly we will offer in the playoffs.
:<
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Old 05-12-2012, 11:01 AM   #411
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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That was the longest 2 weeks of my life. What did everyone do when they weren't refreshing for updates?
Loved and lost. Never knew there was an outside world
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Old 05-12-2012, 11:40 AM   #412
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

This was the scene at Pinnacle re: Total Bases.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQPy88-E2zo

It wasn't me, though. I haven't bet Total Bases in a month. I spend all my time (unsuccessfully) applying everything I learned from Total Bases to fantasy baseball. It's the next level of Total Bases because it's not just The Game Within The Game. It's the next level that requires analyzing every player match-up on the board. And it's not just Total Bases it's a lot of other things to. I haven't come up with a good framework yet, but it's something like, "The Games Outside the Game Within."

Adjustments are needed.
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Old 05-12-2012, 11:47 AM   #413
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

rsigley pw doesn't work RIP

2012 total bases: 296-201-155 (+41339)

RIP


please don't kill 1st inning K been on a tear past 3 weeks on it

158-106-181 +33,129
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Old 05-12-2012, 01:22 PM   #414
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by B1uNts420 View Post
This is chronic , my account is locked or something...
Brian had his worst day today , was up almost 23 units but might be around 10 units now.
17 more plays to go i think...
also , he went tout and is posting plays on sharkys site. but i messaged wiper and Brian and Brian has been messaging wiper all his plays.. pretty sure wiper can confirm record...
I haven't been following Brian but are you saying he lost 13 units in one day?

Also, good on Sharky for signing both JDWarriors and BrianL, who gonna be next?
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Old 05-12-2012, 01:42 PM   #415
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

for the record, i have brianl at 71-59-3 +12.22

yesterday he was 1-5 -10.5u

since he joined sharky, he's been direct messaging me his picks on twitter. i had no way of finding poogs during the last two weeks to tell him, but i'm pretty sure he and chronic added in a clause that specifically dealt with going tout or not posting or whatever.

every line/pick that was sent via direct message i checked against pinny and every one was right. sometimes the line moved a couple minutes after, but every line was current when he sent them.

so yeah, 13 more picks to get to 150.
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Old 05-12-2012, 01:46 PM   #416
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

also, 8-12 -9.61u since starting to charge on the 7th.

we talked a little about that, and i know he's kinda feeling the pressure (my words, not his) so maybe go a little easy on him? i know the odds of that are slim, but he's a pretty good guy i think..
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Old 05-12-2012, 02:58 PM   #417
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Seems like with the forums going do and the lack of transparency in the communication the bet should just be No Action'd.
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Old 05-12-2012, 03:09 PM   #418
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

well, i guess i'd disagree because i got no horse in this race and have definitely been getting his picks via twitter direct message. i would then even go to sharkys the next day to make sure what he sent was what got posted up on his page after the fact.

2p2 being down, then seeing the tweet that brian joined a tout service was a little disconcerting at first, but he's kept in touch at twitter and if my opinion matters, everything's been legit.

i can post the google word doc in 17 picks. i could before that but i don't know anything about publishing them then turning off the ability for anyone else to edit it..
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Old 05-12-2012, 03:13 PM   #419
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

anyhow, we can just wait for poogs to catch the bat signal. i doubt he has much of an issue.

i guess not having any way to follow brian's picks for the last week or so might be a small issue (2p2 down + tout) but he's down like 10u in that time, so it would be good for poogs to count those picks anyway.
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Old 05-12-2012, 03:19 PM   #420
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by wiper View Post
well, i guess i'd disagree because i got no horse in this race and have definitely been getting his picks via twitter direct message. i would then even go to sharkys the next day to make sure what he sent was what got posted up on his page after the fact.

2p2 being down, then seeing the tweet that brian joined a tout service was a little disconcerting at first, but he's kept in touch at twitter and if my opinion matters, everything's been legit.

i can post the google word doc in 17 picks. i could before that but i don't know anything about publishing them then turning off the ability for anyone else to edit it..
Pretty sure this is more than enough to warrant continuing the bet. Seems both Wiper and Brian left no room for interpretation. Keep it going imo
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Old 05-12-2012, 03:24 PM   #421
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Guys, you can get new passwords for your regular 2+2 handles via the instructions at the top of the site.

The only issue is if you don't have access to the email that you used to sign-up with on 2+2. If you want to keep your new 2+2 name then you can still do that too I guess.


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Welcome Back! As most of you know, we had a problem that meant the forums had to be taken down for a little over two weeks. In order to log into the forums you must reset your password. To do this - enter the e-mail address for your forum account into the Password Recovery Form and then follow the instructions that are mailed to you.


Wiper - I have no doubt he's a nice enough guy. But you know how many around here feel about touts.

If people want to actually pay for Brian's picks then goodie for them. But this development was insanely easy to see coming. And poking a little fun at someone who goes tout is about as tame as it gets. If he can't handle that then perhaps he should either not have gone tout in the first place OR should stop reading at places where such comments are made.
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Old 05-12-2012, 03:31 PM   #422
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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But this development was insanely easy to see coming.
oh of course it was. he knows the push back/abuse he's gonna get here.
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Old 05-12-2012, 03:32 PM   #423
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Quote:
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That was the longest 2 weeks of my life. What did everyone do when they weren't refreshing for updates?
Had me talking the kids from South Park every time I checked the next day only to see it was still a no go.

Who else shipped on I'll Have Another?

B00t, how bout that Rangers goal with 6 seconds left? First hockey game that I've probably watched in 10 years didn't disappoint.
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Old 05-12-2012, 03:33 PM   #424
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

also +1 to the new passwords. took me forEVER to remember which email i used to sign up last night. couldn't figure out why my old aol account wouldn't get the email, but it was because it was getting sent to an even older yahoo account.

when i saw the "your 1-time password is StexwG3gt" and was able to sign back in, definitely fist pumped.
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Old 05-12-2012, 03:45 PM   #425
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Hanging on with my two hockey futures both still alive in their leagues' final 4.

Phoenix +2800 (NHL) and Oklahoma City +3300 (AHL).
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