Originally Posted by MicroBob
Naj - The writer was clearly referring to before you receive cards and you are placing your initial bet.
Any professional or serious amateur who doesn't have a better than average chance [12-1] of knowing about certain times when an Ace is coming should consider going pro at roulette instead.
There are any number of legal techniques to give you much better odds of identifying those times. Your EV in such hands is 42.08% [6D]. Even if you might be off by a card, at an empty or half-empty table, you can play 3 seats and get a 14% EV overall.
Seems like it might be worth learning a few methods if one spends 8-10 hrs/week
playing 21. Even if you can manage it only once every 8hrs, that's a massive add to your BR over time.
Now that I think about it, I'm not sure how high the eWin is but perhaps you can calculate it since I gave the EV figure.
Player generally has a 42% chance of "winning" the hand. But because of the ability to win more than you initially bet via either blackjack (3:2 payout), double-downs or splits, he is calling it 50/50'ish.
44%, 8% push, ~5% blackjack, but who's counting?
Last edited by NajdorfDefense; 04-25-2012 at 07:18 PM.