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Old 04-24-2012, 08:43 PM   #376
HolidayInTheSun
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by Iowa! on 4/23 View Post
Twins +145

The teams have similar records, the starters have similar ERAs, and yet the home team is +145? Sign me up.
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Originally Posted by @TheBrianLaverty on 4/24
Twins +144 (1.5 Units)
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Old 04-24-2012, 09:14 PM   #377
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Too much credit for me here. Sharks wait for the red dots to disappear.
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Old 04-24-2012, 10:55 PM   #378
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Where is poogs in this?
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Old 04-24-2012, 11:12 PM   #379
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Where is poogs in this?
Which is more impressive to you? A Dodge Ram and a Harley or a 250K house in Rhode Island and a trip with the wife to Disney World every year?
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Old 04-24-2012, 11:16 PM   #380
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Lol. The funniest part about that picture is that Holiday is probably the plankton
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Old 04-24-2012, 11:49 PM   #381
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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HolidayInTheSun funny sb posts 0-180
Should have at least included p00gs and micro.
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Old 04-25-2012, 01:10 AM   #382
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wiper View Post
that's the divide: math vs handicapping.

I do believe brianl is a winning baseball bettor, but in your example it's pretty obvious who to follow.

I know it's not the thing to admit/say on this forum, but there ARE people who win long term by simply handicapping.

but is math the more likely way to succeed? obviously.

it's funny, because everywhere else I've ever been, it's been the modeling math guys that are shunned.
I mean winning is winning, I remember post oak and the other math guys used to give sharky **** on here for his picks and the Guy somehow kept winning.
Probably still a small sample size but most of his big picks were total blowouts.
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Old 04-25-2012, 01:22 AM   #383
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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I mean winning is winning, I remember post oak and the other math guys used to give sharky **** on here for his picks and the Guy somehow kept winning.
Probably still a small sample size but most of his big picks were total blowouts.
any info on how people cap would be interesting. if its math based (as brianl says his strategy is) id be interested to hear all of the stats you look at, and if its not math based then what other factors you find important.
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Old 04-25-2012, 01:52 AM   #384
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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any info on how people cap would be interesting. if its math based (as brianl says his strategy is) id be interested to hear all of the stats you look at, and if its not math based then what other factors you find important.
I mean , even handicappers that are not math based use it to some extent but they will mostly pick games based on watching teams play and memory.
I know that doesn't fly well around here but oh well.
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Old 04-25-2012, 02:14 AM   #385
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

chronic - I think it flies okay even around here as long as it doesn't sound too ridiculous. If somebody posts that they think NYG is in good shape because Eli did an interview saying he "really wants to win" then obviously that will get blasted. If you say that Boston has morale and clubhouse issues and distractions and that it's your hunch that the line is not reflecting that properly then at least you are attempting to make sense.

BrianL's recent post on the tennis match would fall closer to the latter imo. Not exactly the end-all-be-all of insight but at least he was somewhat keeping up with things and conveyed an opinion that could be considered to have some amount of merit.

Not all observational or "by the gut" type of posts are created equal. Some are just plain BS, others are laughably dumb, and others actually have some insight.

And I too am interested in whatever factors are being considered for the picks and think it would make good reading in here.
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Old 04-25-2012, 09:34 AM   #386
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Old 04-25-2012, 09:50 AM   #387
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by HolidayInTheSun View Post
I'm slow and need annotations. I got Banderas and Travolta. The black guy in the city looks familiar, but I can't figure out who it is. The other two are not in the forum as far as I know? Who is the fat plumper? And who is the prancing fairy?
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Old 04-25-2012, 10:37 AM   #388
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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I'm slow and need annotations. I got Banderas and Travolta. The black guy in the city looks familiar, but I can't figure out who it is. The other two are not in the forum as far as I know? Who is the fat plumper? And who is the prancing fairy?
Prancing fairy = BrianL. Fat Plumper = Chronic (i think), Looks more like p00gs irl though.
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Old 04-25-2012, 10:40 AM   #389
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Prancing fairy = BrianL. Fat Plumper = Chronic (i think), Looks more like p00gs irl though.
Makes sense. Thanks.
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Old 04-25-2012, 11:11 AM   #390
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

It's those damn munchies
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Old 04-25-2012, 12:29 PM   #391
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by mike ski View Post
Prancing fairy = BrianL. Fat Plumper = Chronic (i think), Looks more like p00gs irl though.
considering how long youve been posting here and how embarrisngly little you know about betting I wouldnt be exactly throwing my weight around
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Old 04-25-2012, 01:43 PM   #392
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Lol, fat plumber!!? Not even close
Iam a Playa son
I've met tons of 2p2ers over the years. Rarely will the face and online persona match their real life personality.

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Old 04-25-2012, 02:24 PM   #393
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

anyone read this http://www.professionalgambler.com/debunking.html?

i got to this "According to expert researcher Dr. Nigel E. Turner, Ph.D., Scientist, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, incremental betting is one of the telltale signs of someone with a gambling problem." and was laughing too hard to continue
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Old 04-25-2012, 03:15 PM   #394
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by sayhey69 View Post
anyone read this http://www.professionalgambler.com/debunking.html?

i got to this "According to expert researcher Dr. Nigel E. Turner, Ph.D., Scientist, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, incremental betting is one of the telltale signs of someone with a gambling problem." and was laughing too hard to continue
I'll admit I read further than you. I like the part where he talks about a 50%, 52%, and 55% expected win% in blackjack. I think maybe 1 in 2000 hands has an expected w% of 50%+. Over 52% i'd estimate 1 in 10,000, and over 55% probably 1 in 100,000.

I played about 400 hours of blackjack in the last 12 months, and never once reached a point where I thought I was anywhere near 55% to win a hand.
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Old 04-25-2012, 03:17 PM   #395
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by sayhey69 View Post
anyone read this http://www.professionalgambler.com/debunking.html?

i got to this "According to expert researcher Dr. Nigel E. Turner, Ph.D., Scientist, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, incremental betting is one of the telltale signs of someone with a gambling problem." and was laughing too hard to continue
interesting usage of the term "scientist" there
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Old 04-25-2012, 03:19 PM   #396
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

http://www.professionalgambler.com/topten.html

ctrl-f "nigel"
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Old 04-25-2012, 03:24 PM   #397
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

ctrl + f "feynman"

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Old 04-25-2012, 03:43 PM   #398
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

of all the books i read in high school surely youre joking mr feynman was by far the best. anything having to do with someone as brilliant as he was is the stone cold nuts. shakespeare was close. catcher in the rye was awful

Last edited by sayhey69; 04-25-2012 at 03:44 PM. Reason: i actually read those ones
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Old 04-25-2012, 03:49 PM   #399
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by HolidayInTheSun View Post
interesting usage of the term "scientist" there
i took out his email form the quote. anytime a "scientist" has a hotmail account for his contact info you know hes legit
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Old 04-25-2012, 06:29 PM   #400
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Originally Posted by DMMx69 View Post
I'll admit I read further than you. I like the part where he talks about a 50%, 52%, and 55% expected win% in blackjack. I think maybe 1 in 2000 hands has an expected w% of 50%+. Over 52% i'd estimate 1 in 10,000, and over 55% probably 1 in 100,000.

I played about 400 hours of blackjack in the last 12 months, and never once reached a point where I thought I was anywhere near 55% to win a hand.
Pretty sure you're higher than that when you start with an Ace.
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