sounds a bit hypocritical, no?

but yeah, we all know how you feel.

Don't kill me for this post p00gs but serious question; what are the disadvantages of tailing successful cappers like BrianL who have a proven record? Isn't it +ev to do so, similar to betting CBB mechanical home small faves which have a proven record?

I'm not gonna pile on BrianL anymore than has been done, but I will advise to read a capper like Crockpot's posts in the archives. Note how often he crushed Pinnacle close, pay attention to how he formulated his picks using a model with advanced stats and god knows what else outside of a 10 at bat sample size being proof as to whether or not a guy is projected to be able to read a pitchers pitches moving forward. Then note the limits he was betting (as backed up by several Vegas residents here). Compare all this to BrianL, and who would you feel the best about following?

All that said, best of luck to BrianL and his followers

that's the divide: math vs handicapping.

I do believe brianl is a winning baseball bettor, but in your example it's pretty obvious who to follow.

I know it's not the thing to admit/say on this forum, but there ARE people who win long term by simply handicapping.

but is math the more likely way to succeed? obviously.

it's funny, because everywhere else I've ever been, it's been the modeling math guys that are shunned.

LOL. Touche.

Understand what you are saying and talked to Iowa about this this weekend. I did a writeup just to do a writeup.... I have a spreadsheet that spits out stats on around 50 factors for every game, with Avg. vs Pitcher being 1/50th of it. I used the stat as its easy for a writeup.... Its not what I use and its not even a big factor to me. But really... does anyone wanna read the boring stats of park factors, umpires, weather, how teams hit with RISP? It just takes way tooo long to do on a writeup everyday.

i have a function that spits out one stat - how much money imma win

hahahaha

Yes.

I thinks pooooogs has been hoodwinked.

I, also would like to read about those things.

and DMMx since I'm thinking about it, what is your screenname about?

+1.

I think that sounds like some very interesting write-ups. Kind of odd none of that has been mentioned until now but whatever. That really strikes me as potentially quite good.

And I was already enjoying the worthwhile aspects of Brian's writeups before he stopped posting them.

most of the people on 2p2 are math/stat nerds who would love to read this. i for one definitely wish there was more of this in sb

Short answer: My initials are DMM.

Longer answer: When I first signed up for a handle on some forum or game or whatever back around 1993 to compete against Al Gore, I used dmmdmm (no idea why I doubled up on the initials - I think it had to be 6 letters perhaps, and I liked my initials.). Then when I got an AIM account around 1996(?) I selected dmmdmm, but it was taken. I tried dmm, dmmdmmdmm, and a bunch of other combinations, but they were all taken. I settled on DMMx2 (DMM times 2), and now use that for various things. I first registered for 2+2 with that (around 2004(?)), but never really posted so didn't have a need for logging in (aside from searching.) I somehow changed emails and forgot my password, so I had to create a new account, so for whatever reason, just went with DMMx69. Seemed like a decent number. Had I known I would actually start posting and communicating with people, I would've chosen a more respectable number. Oh well. If I could chance the number now, I would.

69s a very respectable number imo

And, since I answered, and since we are derailing the LC of this thread into a pure NC thread, what is yours? I always assumed you were a gas station attendant cleaning windshields.

Write-ups are the nuts

tell you what, i win 5 straight in the best bet thread, i'll tell you.

via pm.

with a non-disclosure agreement.



it's a nickname that somehow stuck.

came home and told my wife i might be getting that full tilt money back actually sometime soon...

her: can we use it to go to the beach for a week??!??

me: we already are going to the beach for a week.

her: 2 weeks!

me: how about this, i'll bet every cent of it on a baseball game, and if it wins, we'll fly to a beach somewhere.

her: are you going to win?

haha.

but yeah, anyone else hoping to get some FT money you've already written off?

p.s. crazy thing is it sounded like she'd be all for sweating out a baseball game to double it, but there's no way i could. such a nit.

I'm still shell shocked suprised and can't believe it.
a ton of more details to come , should be intersting

until my ft money is in my bank account im not gonna think about all the coke and strippers id do with it

if all you're dreaming of is some blow and scrillas it ain't that much

no i know. i told that to her, but it's looking better than it was yesterday.

mine's 4 figures but only barely. enough to spend a week drinking fruity drinks on the ocean, especially since i had long since figured i'd never see it.

f*ck it, if you're only talking about low 4 figs, just let it rideeeee. get a few more pina colada's for mrs. wiper. If you lose, just get her some diet cokes instead

you must not love coke and strippers as much as i do... but ya its 4 figures so not life changing money by any means

since wiper got the idea in my head i cant stop thinking about throwing it on a random game. at this point im happy with anything i get from ft so its like free money. i couldnt do baseball tho. nothing could make me wanna watch that sport.