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Old 04-24-2012, 09:06 AM   #351
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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That Spurs/Blazers game was effing frustrating and annoying. They started the fourth quarter needing to stay under <52 points with the Spurs up 26, so why the eff did Portland play most of their starters the entire quarter? It got to up 35+ and the Spurs were still jacking up 3's early in the shot clock. And with <3 minutes left in the game they just kept pouring it on. This feels like the '07 Patriots and with Pop playing the role of Belichick and just saying F-U to every team they play. I hate it when people can't win or lose with some honor.

/end rant
sounds a bit hypocritical, no?

but yeah, we all know how you feel.
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Old 04-24-2012, 09:17 AM   #352
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Don't kill me for this post p00gs but serious question; what are the disadvantages of tailing successful cappers like BrianL who have a proven record? Isn't it +ev to do so, similar to betting CBB mechanical home small faves which have a proven record?
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Old 04-24-2012, 10:12 AM   #353
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I'm not gonna pile on BrianL anymore than has been done, but I will advise to read a capper like Crockpot's posts in the archives. Note how often he crushed Pinnacle close, pay attention to how he formulated his picks using a model with advanced stats and god knows what else outside of a 10 at bat sample size being proof as to whether or not a guy is projected to be able to read a pitchers pitches moving forward. Then note the limits he was betting (as backed up by several Vegas residents here). Compare all this to BrianL, and who would you feel the best about following?

All that said, best of luck to BrianL and his followers
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Old 04-24-2012, 10:44 AM   #354
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that's the divide: math vs handicapping.

I do believe brianl is a winning baseball bettor, but in your example it's pretty obvious who to follow.

I know it's not the thing to admit/say on this forum, but there ARE people who win long term by simply handicapping.

but is math the more likely way to succeed? obviously.

it's funny, because everywhere else I've ever been, it's been the modeling math guys that are shunned.
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Old 04-24-2012, 10:46 AM   #355
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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sounds a bit hypocritical, no?

but yeah, we all know how you feel.
LOL. Touche.
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Old 04-24-2012, 03:24 PM   #356
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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I'm not gonna pile on BrianL anymore than has been done, but I will advise to read a capper like Crockpot's posts in the archives. Note how often he crushed Pinnacle close, pay attention to how he formulated his picks using a model with advanced stats and god knows what else outside of a 10 at bat sample size being proof as to whether or not a guy is projected to be able to read a pitchers pitches moving forward.
Understand what you are saying and talked to Iowa about this this weekend. I did a writeup just to do a writeup.... I have a spreadsheet that spits out stats on around 50 factors for every game, with Avg. vs Pitcher being 1/50th of it. I used the stat as its easy for a writeup.... Its not what I use and its not even a big factor to me. But really... does anyone wanna read the boring stats of park factors, umpires, weather, how teams hit with RISP? It just takes way tooo long to do on a writeup everyday.
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Old 04-24-2012, 03:54 PM   #357
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

i have a function that spits out one stat - how much money imma win
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Old 04-24-2012, 04:05 PM   #358
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

hahahaha
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Old 04-24-2012, 04:13 PM   #359
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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But really... does anyone wanna read the boring stats of park factors, umpires, weather, how teams hit with RISP?
Yes.
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Old 04-24-2012, 04:25 PM   #360
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I thinks pooooogs has been hoodwinked.

I, also would like to read about those things.

and DMMx since I'm thinking about it, what is your screenname about?
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Old 04-24-2012, 05:03 PM   #361
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Yes.

+1.

I think that sounds like some very interesting write-ups. Kind of odd none of that has been mentioned until now but whatever. That really strikes me as potentially quite good.

And I was already enjoying the worthwhile aspects of Brian's writeups before he stopped posting them.
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Old 04-24-2012, 05:08 PM   #362
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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Understand what you are saying and talked to Iowa about this this weekend. I did a writeup just to do a writeup.... I have a spreadsheet that spits out stats on around 50 factors for every game, with Avg. vs Pitcher being 1/50th of it. I used the stat as its easy for a writeup.... Its not what I use and its not even a big factor to me. But really... does anyone wanna read the boring stats of park factors, umpires, weather, how teams hit with RISP? It just takes way tooo long to do on a writeup everyday.
most of the people on 2p2 are math/stat nerds who would love to read this. i for one definitely wish there was more of this in sb
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Old 04-24-2012, 05:16 PM   #363
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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and DMMx since I'm thinking about it, what is your screenname about?
Short answer: My initials are DMM.

Longer answer: When I first signed up for a handle on some forum or game or whatever back around 1993 to compete against Al Gore, I used dmmdmm (no idea why I doubled up on the initials - I think it had to be 6 letters perhaps, and I liked my initials.). Then when I got an AIM account around 1996(?) I selected dmmdmm, but it was taken. I tried dmm, dmmdmmdmm, and a bunch of other combinations, but they were all taken. I settled on DMMx2 (DMM times 2), and now use that for various things. I first registered for 2+2 with that (around 2004(?)), but never really posted so didn't have a need for logging in (aside from searching.) I somehow changed emails and forgot my password, so I had to create a new account, so for whatever reason, just went with DMMx69. Seemed like a decent number. Had I known I would actually start posting and communicating with people, I would've chosen a more respectable number. Oh well. If I could chance the number now, I would.
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Old 04-24-2012, 05:23 PM   #364
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

69s a very respectable number imo
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Old 04-24-2012, 05:27 PM   #365
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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and DMMx since I'm thinking about it, what is your screenname about?
And, since I answered, and since we are derailing the LC of this thread into a pure NC thread, what is yours? I always assumed you were a gas station attendant cleaning windshields.
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Old 04-24-2012, 05:30 PM   #366
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

Write-ups are the nuts
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Old 04-24-2012, 05:49 PM   #367
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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And, since I answered, and since we are derailing the LC of this thread into a pure NC thread, what is yours? I always assumed you were a gas station attendant cleaning windshields.
tell you what, i win 5 straight in the best bet thread, i'll tell you.

via pm.

with a non-disclosure agreement.



it's a nickname that somehow stuck.
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Old 04-24-2012, 05:58 PM   #368
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

came home and told my wife i might be getting that full tilt money back actually sometime soon...

her: can we use it to go to the beach for a week??!??

me: we already are going to the beach for a week.

her: 2 weeks!

me: how about this, i'll bet every cent of it on a baseball game, and if it wins, we'll fly to a beach somewhere.

her: are you going to win?

haha.

but yeah, anyone else hoping to get some FT money you've already written off?

p.s. crazy thing is it sounded like she'd be all for sweating out a baseball game to double it, but there's no way i could. such a nit.
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Old 04-24-2012, 06:11 PM   #369
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

I'm still shell shocked suprised and can't believe it.
a ton of more details to come , should be intersting
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Old 04-24-2012, 06:12 PM   #370
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

until my ft money is in my bank account im not gonna think about all the coke and strippers id do with it
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Old 04-24-2012, 06:36 PM   #371
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

if all you're dreaming of is some blow and scrillas it ain't that much
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Old 04-24-2012, 06:40 PM   #372
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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until my ft money is in my bank account im not gonna think about all the coke and strippers id do with it
no i know. i told that to her, but it's looking better than it was yesterday.

mine's 4 figures but only barely. enough to spend a week drinking fruity drinks on the ocean, especially since i had long since figured i'd never see it.
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Old 04-24-2012, 06:59 PM   #373
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

f*ck it, if you're only talking about low 4 figs, just let it rideeeee. get a few more pina colada's for mrs. wiper. If you lose, just get her some diet cokes instead
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Old 04-24-2012, 07:01 PM   #374
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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if all you're dreaming of is some blow and scrillas it ain't that much
you must not love coke and strippers as much as i do... but ya its 4 figures so not life changing money by any means
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Old 04-24-2012, 07:04 PM   #375
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Re: April - June LC Thread: Good old country hardball

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f*ck it, if you're only talking about low 4 figs, just let it rideeeee. get a few more pina colada's for mrs. wiper. If you lose, just get her some diet cokes instead
since wiper got the idea in my head i cant stop thinking about throwing it on a random game. at this point im happy with anything i get from ft so its like free money. i couldnt do baseball tho. nothing could make me wanna watch that sport.
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