Naj - The writer was clearly referring to before you receive cards and you are placing your initial bet.

Mostly seems like he was simplifying card-counting % of victory to some EV/profit type of thing so that it could make sense for those who don't understand the nature of blackjack and just assume that the player is generally around 50/50. When he calls a 51% chance of winning is where he really means the shoe is positive enough to give the player a slight edge (1% I guess).

Either that, or he's just a total idiot about that as well as DMMx speculates and may be correct.

Anyway,
Player generally has a 42% chance of "winning" the hand. But because of the ability to win more than you initially bet via either blackjack (3:2 payout), double-downs or splits, he is calling it 50/50'ish.

But yeah, having an actual 50% chance of truly "winning" the hand very rarely happens. And when it does it is a MONSTER opportunity for the player because you still also have the opportunity to win more than you initially bet.

When a card-counter has an improved chance of making a greater profit in the hand you are looking at maybe getting all the way up to a 45% chance of actually winning the hand PLUS the increased likelihood of blackjack or achieving success in double-down or split situations, etc.

I'm hoping the writer just assumed it was too complicate to explain that all out in detail and that it would be lost on the majority of his readers if he tried.

Any professional or serious amateur who doesn't have a better than average chance [12-1] of knowing about certain times when an Ace is coming should consider going pro at roulette instead.

There are any number of legal techniques to give you much better odds of identifying those times. Your EV in such hands is 42.08% [6D]. Even if you might be off by a card, at an empty or half-empty table, you can play 3 seats and get a 14% EV overall.

Seems like it might be worth learning a few methods if one spends 8-10 hrs/week playing 21. Even if you can manage it only once every 8hrs, that's a massive add to your BR over time.

Now that I think about it, I'm not sure how high the eWin is but perhaps you can calculate it since I gave the EV figure.

44%, 8% push, ~5% blackjack, but who's counting?

That's not really related to the initial point of the example he was trying to communicate.


Thanks for the correction on the percentages.

This is of course true, but I was speaking in relation to the linked article which was talking about card counting and win%. I assumed the author was talking about basic card counting (i.e., hi/lo). I suppose he could be hinting at ace tracking (or even holding a side count for aces, or some other high level counting system), but I highly doubt it based on the rest of the content in the article and on the website.

As always, I could be wrong.

Good catch though, and good point.

Edit: I reread that awful article and the author doesn't really say anything too specific about what type of counting, so I guess you could be right that he is identifying win% associated with some deeper knowledge than a simple count.

BRIAN L UPDATES IMMEDIATELY

LETS DO THIS

Brian went tout? Never saw that coming.

Who broke total bases?

That was the longest 2 weeks of my life. What did everyone do when they weren't refreshing for updates?

yeah what the hell. hoping total bases linesman is on vacation

:<

Loved and lost. Never knew there was an outside world

This was the scene at Pinnacle re: Total Bases.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQPy88-E2zo

It wasn't me, though. I haven't bet Total Bases in a month. I spend all my time (unsuccessfully) applying everything I learned from Total Bases to fantasy baseball. It's the next level of Total Bases because it's not just The Game Within The Game. It's the next level that requires analyzing every player match-up on the board. And it's not just Total Bases it's a lot of other things to. I haven't come up with a good framework yet, but it's something like, "The Games Outside the Game Within."

Adjustments are needed.

rsigley pw doesn't work RIP

2012 total bases: 296-201-155 (+41339)

RIP


please don't kill 1st inning K been on a tear past 3 weeks on it

158-106-181 +33,129

I haven't been following Brian but are you saying he lost 13 units in one day?

Also, good on Sharky for signing both JDWarriors and BrianL, who gonna be next?

for the record, i have brianl at 71-59-3 +12.22

yesterday he was 1-5 -10.5u

since he joined sharky, he's been direct messaging me his picks on twitter. i had no way of finding poogs during the last two weeks to tell him, but i'm pretty sure he and chronic added in a clause that specifically dealt with going tout or not posting or whatever.

every line/pick that was sent via direct message i checked against pinny and every one was right. sometimes the line moved a couple minutes after, but every line was current when he sent them.

so yeah, 13 more picks to get to 150.

also, 8-12 -9.61u since starting to charge on the 7th.

we talked a little about that, and i know he's kinda feeling the pressure (my words, not his) so maybe go a little easy on him? i know the odds of that are slim, but he's a pretty good guy i think..

Seems like with the forums going do and the lack of transparency in the communication the bet should just be No Action'd.

well, i guess i'd disagree because i got no horse in this race and have definitely been getting his picks via twitter direct message. i would then even go to sharkys the next day to make sure what he sent was what got posted up on his page after the fact.

2p2 being down, then seeing the tweet that brian joined a tout service was a little disconcerting at first, but he's kept in touch at twitter and if my opinion matters, everything's been legit.

i can post the google word doc in 17 picks. i could before that but i don't know anything about publishing them then turning off the ability for anyone else to edit it..

anyhow, we can just wait for poogs to catch the bat signal. i doubt he has much of an issue.

i guess not having any way to follow brian's picks for the last week or so might be a small issue (2p2 down + tout) but he's down like 10u in that time, so it would be good for poogs to count those picks anyway.

Pretty sure this is more than enough to warrant continuing the bet. Seems both Wiper and Brian left no room for interpretation. Keep it going imo

Guys, you can get new passwords for your regular 2+2 handles via the instructions at the top of the site.

The only issue is if you don't have access to the email that you used to sign-up with on 2+2. If you want to keep your new 2+2 name then you can still do that too I guess.




Wiper - I have no doubt he's a nice enough guy. But you know how many around here feel about touts.

If people want to actually pay for Brian's picks then goodie for them. But this development was insanely easy to see coming. And poking a little fun at someone who goes tout is about as tame as it gets. If he can't handle that then perhaps he should either not have gone tout in the first place OR should stop reading at places where such comments are made.

oh of course it was. he knows the push back/abuse he's gonna get here.

Had me talking the kids from South Park every time I checked the next day only to see it was still a no go.

Who else shipped on I'll Have Another?

B00t, how bout that Rangers goal with 6 seconds left? First hockey game that I've probably watched in 10 years didn't disappoint.

also +1 to the new passwords. took me forEVER to remember which email i used to sign up last night. couldn't figure out why my old aol account wouldn't get the email, but it was because it was getting sent to an even older yahoo account.

when i saw the "your 1-time password is StexwG3gt" and was able to sign back in, definitely fist pumped.

Hanging on with my two hockey futures both still alive in their leagues' final 4.

Phoenix +2800 (NHL) and Oklahoma City +3300 (AHL).