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Old 09-16-2021, 04:19 PM   #1
Sirbustalotz
grinder
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 432
Anytime touchdown Scorer prop.

If a player averages 1 TD per game what odds do we need to get to make it a +ev bet? Im probably wrong here but if a player averaged 1 every 2 games I would think you would need +101 odds or better for it to be +ev correct? Sorry if this is the wrong place if so can an admin direct it to the right place.
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Old 09-18-2021, 04:54 PM   #2
rabbitcoin
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2021
Location: Nevada, USA
Posts: 165
Re: Anytime touchdown Scorer prop.

Since touchdowns occur one at a time you could use the Poisson distribution for this. (Poisson won't be suitable for anything occurring in bunches.) If you have Excel, the function you want is =POISSON.DIST(x,mean,cumulative).

If you're just trying to price whether they score a touchdown Yes/No, set x=0 (for 0 touchdowns), mean=whatever you determined the average number of touchdowns scored per game to be, and then set cumulative=FALSE.

So for your first question where the player averages 1 TD a game:
=POISSON.DIST(0,1,FALSE). This returns 0.3679 which is the probability of No TDs scored, and 1-0.3679=0.6321 is the probability one or more TDs is scored. That comes out to 0.6321/0.3679*-100= -172 as the fair price for Yes, and +172 as fair for No.

For your second question where the player averages 0.5 TDs per game: =POISSON.DIST(0,0.5,FALSE) returns 0.6065, coming out to fair prices of Yes +154, No -154.
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