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 09-16-2021, 04:19 PM #1 Sirbustalotz grinder   Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 432 Anytime touchdown Scorer prop. If a player averages 1 TD per game what odds do we need to get to make it a +ev bet? Im probably wrong here but if a player averaged 1 every 2 games I would think you would need +101 odds or better for it to be +ev correct? Sorry if this is the wrong place if so can an admin direct it to the right place.
 09-18-2021, 04:54 PM #2 rabbitcoin centurion   Join Date: Jan 2021 Location: Nevada, USA Posts: 165 Re: Anytime touchdown Scorer prop. Since touchdowns occur one at a time you could use the Poisson distribution for this. (Poisson won't be suitable for anything occurring in bunches.) If you have Excel, the function you want is =POISSON.DIST(x,mean,cumulative). If you're just trying to price whether they score a touchdown Yes/No, set x=0 (for 0 touchdowns), mean=whatever you determined the average number of touchdowns scored per game to be, and then set cumulative=FALSE. So for your first question where the player averages 1 TD a game: =POISSON.DIST(0,1,FALSE). This returns 0.3679 which is the probability of No TDs scored, and 1-0.3679=0.6321 is the probability one or more TDs is scored. That comes out to 0.6321/0.3679*-100= -172 as the fair price for Yes, and +172 as fair for No. For your second question where the player averages 0.5 TDs per game: =POISSON.DIST(0,0.5,FALSE) returns 0.6065, coming out to fair prices of Yes +154, No -154.

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