Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-16-2021, 04:19 PM   #1
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 432
Anytime touchdown Scorer prop.

If a player averages 1 TD per game what odds do we need to get to make it a +ev bet? Im probably wrong here but if a player averaged 1 every 2 games I would think you would need +101 odds or better for it to be +ev correct? Sorry if this is the wrong place if so can an admin direct it to the right place.
Sirbustalotz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-18-2021, 04:54 PM   #2
Join Date: Jan 2021
Location: Nevada, USA
Posts: 165
Re: Anytime touchdown Scorer prop.

Since touchdowns occur one at a time you could use the Poisson distribution for this. (Poisson won't be suitable for anything occurring in bunches.) If you have Excel, the function you want is =POISSON.DIST(x,mean,cumulative).

If you're just trying to price whether they score a touchdown Yes/No, set x=0 (for 0 touchdowns), mean=whatever you determined the average number of touchdowns scored per game to be, and then set cumulative=FALSE.

So for your first question where the player averages 1 TD a game:
=POISSON.DIST(0,1,FALSE). This returns 0.3679 which is the probability of No TDs scored, and 1-0.3679=0.6321 is the probability one or more TDs is scored. That comes out to 0.6321/0.3679*-100= -172 as the fair price for Yes, and +172 as fair for No.

For your second question where the player averages 0.5 TDs per game: =POISSON.DIST(0,0.5,FALSE) returns 0.6065, coming out to fair prices of Yes +154, No -154.
rabbitcoin is offline   Reply With Quote


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:53 PM.

Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive