I'm in Canada but want to do it this year. I'll need a proxy. Wondering if any regs on here live in Vegas and are playing.

As long as this topic has been opened, I have a question about the SuperContest too: what is the square to sharp ratio in a competition like this?

Is it like the WSOP Main Event where there are so many fish in the field that it makes it a killer value?

Or is the SuperContest filled with so many sharps that there's going to be very little value unless you're at the top of the field?

To balance it out you have to make 5 picks a week.

I'm also from Canada and am doing it for the first time this year. For the entry to be in your name, you have to actually go and sign up with your proxy in person in Vegas. Otherwise, ur gonna have to try to find someone you can trust to do that for you but the entry will be in their name, not yours.

Between the proxy fee (fixed rate of 200-300 and % of cash from 3-5%) plus the likely piece that the person signing you up will likely take plus the actual rake, not sure if its actually profitable regardless of how good you think you can pick. I'm still taking the shot this year tho to give it and try and see, if you do the same gl.

Last year 1st place was 550k 1500 buyin 500 for proxy = 2k - 5% 27.5 = 527.5k profit 0f 525k
If taxes 550k - 30% = 485k - 5% 24.25k - 2k = 458.75k profit

Thanks for the offer. Trying to sort things out now.

what's your point? I know how much you'd get IF you win (which is a big IF). Doesn't mean that your EV would be profitable longterm cuz of the rake, proxy fees, etc.

It's a good contest. I tied for 6th place last year and received $56,870 ( team name: All You Can Eat) all of the money entered goes back to the players minus any fees for the proxy of course. Plus they throw in some extra cash for the side bonuses.. best player over final 3 weeks and over 67% on the year, $15,000 each I believe.

I consider myself fairly sharp but in the end there's a lot of luck of course. So many of these games are close at the end and you really need to have the majority of the very close games go your way, those will make or break you. I started off really hot last year and never looked back. Looking to see how it will go this year playing my second time and expecting a bigger field.

I can definitely tell you there are quite a large amount of fish. Just looking at the majority of peoples picks on a weekly basic had me laughing.

Anymore questions, I'll check back to answer.

Good Luck!

My point is Yes it is profitable, and the example above shows that it has grown every year and there is a lot of dead money being this is a great way to preserve your bankroll and have action, also people are playing this for fun much like fantasy leagues, if your decent and have friends to crunch with then imo this is very +EV.

Many thanks, Buildhigh, for your post. Very helpful.

Thanks for the info!

then state that, don't just provide the number the guy in 1st would get

I'm wondering how you are calculating that you will have 485k after taxes? That may change your opinion on whether it is +ev or not. At 30% tax rate, you will be paying a lot more than 65k in taxes on 550k winnings (hint: you would pay 165k in taxes, leaving you with 385k after taxes).

I don't know how either I obviously did the math wrong, regardless even if they took 200k it's still +EV

what is your expected win rate. and what do you think the expected win rate of the field is. don't just toss around terms like +EV without backing it up whatsoever. stating how much one would get for 1st place doesn't make anybody plus EV by any means.

It's def possible some people are +EV after rake+proxy fees, but the majority are not. if you don't see why, don't bother responding

The tone in your posts make you sound like a pompous idiot, why do you want conflict. I'm using the term EV because that's what you originally used.
My expected value for this is high somewhere around 67% as I make money betting football, so maybe the whole question is over my head but if you have to ask this question as a solved problem then save 1500. And if banking 300k profit on a $1500 investment even if you blank every year for 20 years and win the 21st the value is still there, if your not good at NFL then just have fun.

u make it seem like its a walk in the park to just ship it once every 20 years. even if you are +EV, the odds are stacked against you to win it even once every 20 years.

I too make money betting football (and all sports for that matter), but there's a difference between being able to make money betting football and being +EV in a pool like this where you have to pay rake+proxy fees+other fees.

you can't just eliminate those fees for the sake of it and say that you are +EV in this pool cuz you win at football.

I would love to see your math behind how you came up with that 67% number too.

I play every year and have done some calcs on this before, and basically there are 20-30 APs with expected winning %s around 53% and everyone is else flipping coins. If you want to see whether or not you are +EV (you're not) use those figures and whatever your imaginary win % is and run a sim.

It's a good sweat either way, and what's a few pennies of -EV on a forum full of homeowners anyways?

agreed, well said.

just love how this guy comes in saying how +EV it is by just throwing around random numbers w not much basis.

Good points. While I am a winning bettor, this is a different beast. I'm in it for the sweat, and if I can ship a small (or large win), even better.

If you own a condo are you considered a homeowner?

Many thanks for your post, Iowa! Very helpful.

Interesting. So, out of the 1,034 players last year, ~2-3% of the field was sharps.

In order to enter this contest do you have to be in Las Vegas and register in person? I don't think I will have the opportunity to get out to Vegas in the next few weeks but wanted to enter.

Has anyone competed in this contest?

Super contest is one of the biggest and challenging pro football contest, at LVH in the casino. I never participate in these contest but I think it was the most interesting contest and best for betting.

Yes, you need to pay your initial entry fee in person. That said, you can bring a Vegas local with you when you register and tell the folks at the sportsbook that the person with you will act as your proxy; your proxy then has the authority to come into the casino each week to register your weekly picks for you.

Although if you really don't want to come to Vegas at all, technically you could just give $1500 to a friend (or professional service) and let the friend enter under his/her own name. Be aware that you're making a leap of faith if you pursue this option since the entry will not be under your name.