Grinded live poker for about 6 months after college. Left while profitable but worried about the prospect of deciding it wasn't for me 5 years later and trying to explain my empty resume. Still dabbled online in evenings for fun. Never deposited a dollar, profited low 5 figures over several years playing microstakes.

Worked in tech and was an early hire at two different startups that both went unicorn. One already IPO'd, the other still privately owned.

Recently been doing product consulting for startups but keep finding myself periodically missing out on playing poker. Not having the time and dedication for it anymore, I found myself transitioning to DFS. This time I skipped the $0 to $100 stage and deposited $250. Winnings currently just shy of $15k over the past year from that $250 starting point. It's been predominantly through cash play. Biggest gpp win is only 3k and next after that is $500.

In the process of creating my own models for projections, I've found that I feel there are definitely some exploits in the Vegas lines. So naturally, my next venture I'm considering trying to decode it all and really figure out a system. First testing and backtesting, then eventually to stop paper trading and placing real bets.

Much like I learned to skip the freeroll grinding stage in DFS, I wish to skip learning from scratch what others have already done before me. If anyone is looking for a research assistant, intern, apprentice, whatever you wish to call it - that's something I'd be very interested in doing if it means I'll be contributing in a meaningful manner.

I'm not expecting you to hold my hand and tell me what time it is. I'm expecting this to be something where I can add EV to your system while also learning much faster than if I were to begin winging it all on my own. This could be anything from the occasional email exchange, daily discussion on slack or even something full time where I relocate to be physically present. I am going into this with a very open mind. I want to be a top handicapper within the next 5 years.

Yeah I would follow this guy on yt hes pretty knowledgeable... try to contact him somehow?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

well done sir, I appreciate you bumping the thread at least

can't believe it's been 12 years since that guy started his youtube campaign.

op, you mentioned working in tech. what are your hard skills? be selective who you choose to work with. lots of people have an idea or angle they want to explore. it may or may not be worth your time. for example, this guy is looking for help. it could be a great angle to explore or it could be just some halfbaked idea that can't be quantified properly.

You make some solid points, thanks for sharing that guy's post. I responded but I agree, it looks more like a fishing expedition than an actual collaboration.

Hard skills are lacking because I'm from a liberal arts background and always been working more on strategic work than actually coding. I'm capable of doing things with R and python etc etc but it's of the "give me 3 hours to figure out how to do that first" variety. I'm not someone who can just sit down and code or expect to be hired as an engineer at this moment in time.

I actually make a living these days being brought in as an outsider to look at a company's data and offer fresh insight. I apparently view and interpret data very differently from most other people and this can sometimes lead to breakthroughs that others miss. I'd be lying though if I didn't point out the obvious, that it's often just a crazy idea because if it weren't a little out there - the others would have seen it themselves earlier. I'm not Rain Man, but in the grand scheme of things, I do tend to notice trends others don't and this gives me an edge in DFS. If I could help some sharps improve their win rate from 57% to 57.3% I think that would be a very large improvement - but on the flip side, very difficult to properly credit me for

Do have a long track record of excellent data analysis and acting upon it though. Although my volume is capped due to bankroll considerations (applying now to be able to post in the staking forum) my record is on par or favorable to many of the end bosses such as Moklovin. I consider those elite cash game players to be peers of equal talent and I have the numbers to support that hypothesis.

People who kill in the minor leagues also kill in the majors

equal talent theory

I assume you're talking about my on par with the other top regs comment. While this applies to poker, the scalability of DFS means that cash game play is essentially equal at all buyin levels. The sharps don't make a better lineup for the 10k matches but then decide to wing it for the $25 matches.


If you are good enough to the point where they played you a few dozen times, won 50% or less and no longer take your action or even blocked you from taking theirs then yeah, you're on their level even if your bankroll precludes you from sitting 10k h2hs each night.

Once I get approved for the staking thread, I'll happily allow any serious backers to review my entire lineup history and they can determine on their own if I'm a minor leaguer or not.

if you can't code what exactly do you offer?

I can fetch coffee?

But seriously though, I thought I was pretty clear that I do code and have created some very strong models for DFS and wish to transition to sports handicapping.

Maybe I'm being naive, but I don't think that every day someone who is a high demand product and data consultant with a proven track record in poker, tech & DFS is offering their time to assist in building or improving in a handicapping model.

Maybe I undersold myself, maybe you're a troll, maybe I should have offered a handjob to go with the coffee? I am quite tall and pretty ya know

i'd guess you'll get offers from people who want you to get data for them to test out their theories. if that is something you would enjoy go for it. you'll learn some data wrangling skills and maybe find someone who you work well with. personally i think you'd be best served to just try it on your own. look at the 5dimes bettingmenu and pick a niche that you are motivated to try to learn. preferably a smaller market such as a player prop. then google for academic articles about the sport and see if you can steal/adapt some academics insights into how to predict the sport. you said this is your professional area of strength so you may have success with this.

now is not the time to be jumping into dfs unless you have a track record of success. even the big providers, fd/dk, are devoting their resources into the sports betting side and not dfs. use those dfs models to bet player props.

Yeah I feel the same exact way, which is why I'm thinking the time and resources I'm putting into determining Chris Sale's relative value to Blake Snell would be far less valuable than determining game outcomes on a whole.

This is exactly why I'm interested in making the transition. I definitely agree, it's likely going to be a solo journey (or a group journey with others also starting from scratch) but since it's not the zero sum game that DFS is, I was probably a little too naive thinking I could just make a 2+2 post and someone who handicaps professionally would start handing me research and projection projects.

I don't drink coffee but you can earn 1/5th of a % of $ bet if you are in Vegas. Should be enough to get you a good meal and a hotel

Might have something of interest OP if you want to get in touch.

Google

appears we can't message each other here, please shoot me an email at dfsx42 at gmail

But how do I fetch coffee for Google?

fetch coffee for yourself and google all the answers you need

you wont find what you want from here

most sportsbettors are terrible teachers

move to vegas or nowadays new jersey. offer to be a runner. you could put a bond in escrow to demonstrate your good standing (not strictly necessary). work hard, be trustworthy, make connections. over time you will learn, gain responsibilities, and develop relationships will people and you'll be on the path to becoming a professional in your own right.

that's what vegas runner did and look at him now

Yeah, I've actually been considering just making the move myself and hanging out at sportsbooks looking out for people who appear to be sharps.

My main thinking is that:

1. It's super sketchy for one adult man just to randomly approach another adult man and be like hey bro, you are a sharp yeah? I'd love to work with you.

2. It's not something best done in a large crowd so you kind of have to be that sketchy guy sort of stalking the person and waiting for a good moment to approach them.

3. These people likely carry tens of thousands on their person in cash, their guards are up and they are likely to think I'm trying to rob or scam them.

Thanks for the link, will read up on it and consider some GTO strategies for networking efficiently

that's the easy part since you already come across as a nice, hardworking guy. you just have to be yourself. hang around the sportsbook for a while, notice the other guys who are always hanging around, on their phone, or scanning a don best screen. walk up to them in the sportsbook, compliment them on how sharp they seem, and how you really admire their dedication to the craft. tell them you'd love to learn more about them and offer to buy coffee or a beer. he'll either think you're gay and hitting on him or a genuine person who wants to learn more. either way, you may end up enjoying your time together.

https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...51211/91346638

this right here is why I want to get into sports betting

5 guys, (4 of the top and 1 unknown) basically all with the same pool of players, 3 lineups are identical, the only thing making this even remotely sustainable is that slight overlay and even then, 2/3 of the time someone enters the fray the last minute to cancel that out

golf is the least reliable sport out there and in its statistical infancy, yet this is the norm in dfs, where our data models independently produce 3 identical lines and the other two are just slight pivots off. To differentiate away from optimal is death in these so you just gotta hope someone else made the mistake instead of actively pivoting down

high stakes small field cash games are usually bad but if they overlay often enough it's good. 5/6 with huge overlap is a great spot. you are essentially random to finish but since it overlayed you are +ev.

(3/5) * +$500 + (2/5) * -$530 = +$88

when it fills
(3/6) * +$500 + (3/6) * -$530 = -$15

so you just have to hope it overlays often enough to make up for the times it doesn't

yeah, most of the time they do fill, this is first time it's not 6/6 in a while - which i why I tend to avoid them because look it's just me vs a mirror

I actually like the 3 way split, but that's only due to the overlay by not having that 6th guy join, which usually happens actually (especially in more popular stuff - overlay in football is a unicorn)

1st of 3 = +470
2nd of 3 = +136
3rd of 3 = -200

That's something I actually like a lot actually

Tom, this one here https://sports.yahoo.com/dailyfantas...62469/91517837

It only had 3/6 (including me) with just seconds left to go. At lock it said only 4 were in it.

Wish I screenshotted it because now it says it's full. The conspiracy theories are going wild in my head. Moklovin and Kevin123 were 100% not showing up in the contest.

I realize though that yahoo is just slow to update late arrivals. Often times it says my h2hs went unfilled then 10 minutes later I have them going.

Edit: kind of went off topic about the conspiracy thing, but basically everything, even the stuff only half full with seconds before lock, it always gets filled last minute. I think the only edge isn't in chasing the overlay but hoping those who chase it are people who wouldn't be taking your $109 h2hs.