Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-27-2021, 01:10 PM   #1
TomG
Pooh-Bah
 
TomG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: prop manager, crowdsource syndicate
Posts: 4,112
6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

We're bringing back the classic NFL proposition wager this season. It's a bet that seems so easy to win and yet always finds a way to lose. The rules are simple. Pick 6 NFL teams NOT to make the playoffs this year. If one team makes it, you lose. It pays even money.

Who ya got?

My picks.

Jets
Lions
Texans
Bengals
Raiders
Jaguars

Too easy.

It's a fun exercise for Crowdsource Syndicate members to describe how they would go about picking their optimal set of teams.
TomG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-27-2021, 08:31 PM   #2
rabbitcoin
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2021
Location: Nevada, USA
Posts: 165
Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

I also came up with the same 6 as (currently) the most likely to not make the playoffs:

Texans
Lions
Bengals
Jets
Jaguars
Raiders

However, for the probability that neither of those 6 make it I have +305 (24.7%) as the fair line, not +100. Any other teams and the EV just gets worse...
rabbitcoin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-28-2021, 10:22 AM   #3
dawai
newbie
 
dawai's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 38
Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

Thanks TomG,
threads/puzzles like these are fun, much appreciated.

Being Euro I follow NFL just casually and I am not particularly good at handicapping.

My list is:
Carolina Panthers
Las Vegas Raiders
Cincinnati Bengals
Detroit Lions
New York Jets
Houston Texans

So, compared to the above lists only Jaguars are switched out for Panthers.

How I picked the teams:
- looked up the rules for which teams make the playoffs, which are: all division winners + top 3 of the rest of each conference.
- looked into special rules. A factor could be 'Covid forfeited games'. However I discarded the idea of many games forfeited because of this rule as I found little or no indication that this is going to happen.
- mapped all NFL teams with: conference, division, NBC Power Rankings, Pinnacle/Betonline odds to win division

Texans Jets Lions Bengals Raiders were clear bottom 5 of the list for odds to win division, and all in the bottom of Power Rankings: 25 (Raiders) 28 30 31 32

- For the 6th candidate I looked at the regular season schedule for Jaguars (PR 29, odds +600 ) Panthers (26 , +1211) and Eagles (27, +625)

I don't fancy Jaguars much because they are in the same division as one of the other candidates: Texans .

I picked Panthers over Jaguars because they are the only candidate from their division, and also because there is now more balance between AFC-NFC.

I picked Panthers over Eagles because of longer odds to win their division and because the schedule looked a tad easier, measured by average PR of opponents.
dawai is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-28-2021, 07:26 PM   #4
somigosaden
adept
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: sean-a-paul, somigosaden
Posts: 920
Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

The fact that 14/32 teams make the playoffs now (as of last season) instead of 12/32 is pretty significant. I assume picking five teams to not make the playoffs at even money would still be -EV, but I don't have a model for this.
somigosaden is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-29-2021, 11:14 AM   #5
kdog
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Losing leads late
Posts: 3,851
Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG View Post
We're bringing back the classic NFL proposition wager this season. It's a bet that seems so easy to win and yet always finds a way to lose. The rules are simple. Pick 6 NFL teams NOT to make the playoffs this year. If one team makes it, you lose. It pays even money.

Who ya got?

My picks.

Jets
Lions
Texans
Bengals
Raiders
Jaguars

Too easy.

It's a fun exercise for Crowdsource Syndicate members to describe how they would go about picking their optimal set of teams.
I would switch Falcons or Panthers for Raiders simply because having five teams from one conference is too many imo.
kdog is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-30-2021, 11:10 AM   #6
TomG
Pooh-Bah
 
TomG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: prop manager, crowdsource syndicate
Posts: 4,112
Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

My approach: Use binomial theorem and RSW market line to back into the market implied average win percentage for the season. Then create a simulator that runs a 17 game season and assigns playoff teams based on 2021-22 season NFL playoff rules. What do you think?

Could also use this approach to create implied individual game lines for books that put up forward looking "game of the year" lines.
TomG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-30-2021, 11:52 AM   #7
cokeboy99
grinder
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 484
Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

Tried not to read the other responses as I come up with my list:

New York Jets
Houston Texans
Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions
Jacksonville Jaguars
Chicago Bears
cokeboy99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-30-2021, 03:44 PM   #8
hedgie43
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,292
Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

Does anyone actually want to bet these? If so, post your teams and I'll make a market on Fairlay.
hedgie43 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-30-2021, 06:09 PM   #9
TomG
Pooh-Bah
 
TomG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: prop manager, crowdsource syndicate
Posts: 4,112
Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

I think you guys are right and we would need to change this wager to picking four teams to not make the playoffs to actually get this close to being a fair wager. We've come a long way as a forum when this proposition was first posted and no one bothered to analyze the wager and we all just thought it was easy. Similar to the birthday problem.
TomG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-30-2021, 08:29 PM   #10
stoffmakers
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,125
Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

This thread prompted me to take my annual action on ppl taking 7 teams to miss the playoffs against me at even money, even after they added additional playoff spots last year lol
stoffmakers is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-31-2021, 08:06 AM   #11
GERRAK_01
stranger
 
Join Date: Aug 2021
Posts: 5
Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

I also tried not looking at the list above!

Here's my pick:
Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers
Denver Broncos
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals
Las Vegas Raiders
GERRAK_01 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-15-2021, 09:50 AM   #12
George Rice
old hand
 
George Rice's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: A few clicks west of AC
Posts: 1,699
Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

Quote:
Originally Posted by rabbitcoin View Post
I also came up with the same 6 as (currently) the most likely to not make the playoffs:

Texans
Lions
Bengals
Jets
Jaguars
Raiders

However, for the probability that neither of those 6 make it I have +305 (24.7%) as the fair line, not +100. Any other teams and the EV just gets worse...
I don't think it's that bad.

Current fair odds:

Texans -1400
Lions -1075
Jets -675
Bengals -625
Raiders -425
Jaguars -350

(1400/1500)*(1075/1175)*(675/775)*(625/725)*(425/525)*(350/450)=.4037 (40.4%) = +148

It's a terrible wager if the fair odds are correct, but not as bad as 25%. A fairer wager would be 5 teams at even odds (-108 leaving out Jax).

However, these are not independent events. So the calculations are only a guide. The Raiders play the NFC East, and has already beaten Jacksonville. They also play Chicago, Denver, Miami, Cincy and Indy. They play Denver twice. Should they really be -425? They could win ten games and back into the playoffs. The Bengals probably are better than -625. I suspect the fair price for those six teams should probably be closer to +250 or even higher.

In any event, picking six teams not to make the playoffs this year is clearly a sucker bet at even money. Picking five teams is probably -ev, but closer.
George Rice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2021, 03:25 AM   #13
rabbitcoin
centurion
 
Join Date: Jan 2021
Location: Nevada, USA
Posts: 165
Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

Quote:
Originally Posted by George Rice View Post
I don't think it's that bad.

Current fair odds:

Texans -1400
Lions -1075
Jets -675
Bengals -625
Raiders -425
Jaguars -350

(1400/1500)*(1075/1175)*(675/775)*(625/725)*(425/525)*(350/450)=.4037 (40.4%) = +148

It's a terrible wager if the fair odds are correct, but not as bad as 25%. A fairer wager would be 5 teams at even odds (-108 leaving out Jax).

However, these are not independent events. So the calculations are only a guide. The Raiders play the NFC East, and has already beaten Jacksonville. They also play Chicago, Denver, Miami, Cincy and Indy. They play Denver twice. Should they really be -425? They could win ten games and back into the playoffs. The Bengals probably are better than -625. I suspect the fair price for those six teams should probably be closer to +250 or even higher.

In any event, picking six teams not to make the playoffs this year is clearly a sucker bet at even money. Picking five teams is probably -ev, but closer.
Fair enough.

It was interesting to see that you concluded the fair odds for those 6 should probably be +250. When converted to a probability, 100/350=28.6%, it really isn't that far off from the 25% number I came up with almost 3 weeks ago.

Naturally, as more games are played we could continue to tighten those numbers up through further speculation. Or, it would also be neat if someone was willing to post "current fair odds" once a week taken as consensus number from some pre-determined bookies. Then we could calculate a Brier Score and see who actually was more "probabilistically" accurate: the 2+2 forum, or the bookies...
rabbitcoin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-16-2021, 06:33 PM   #14
George Rice
old hand
 
George Rice's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: A few clicks west of AC
Posts: 1,699
Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

Quote:
Originally Posted by rabbitcoin View Post
Fair enough.

It was interesting to see that you concluded the fair odds for those 6 should probably be +250. When converted to a probability, 100/350=28.6%, it really isn't that far off from the 25% number I came up with almost 3 weeks ago.

Naturally, as more games are played we could continue to tighten those numbers up through further speculation. Or, it would also be neat if someone was willing to post "current fair odds" once a week taken as consensus number from some pre-determined bookies. Then we could calculate a Brier Score and see who actually was more "probabilistically" accurate: the 2+2 forum, or the bookies...
The +250 estimate was assuming the "fair odds" from the sports book are at least partially wrong. If you use their numbers, then the price is +148. Also, the prices I saw were different after the first week, so those odds were before the season started, even though they were still on the site afterwards (I got them from Vegas Insider, and the current odds were listed below). The odds would change as the season progresses, but the ability to bet at even money will evaporate as it becomes obvious which teams have no chance.
George Rice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-17-2021, 11:12 PM   #15
NajdorfDefense
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
NajdorfDefense's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: World’s Greatest Posčur
Posts: 17,285
Re: 6 Teams That Won't Make The NFL Playoffs

Giants
Lions
Jax
Houston
Cinci
Jets

were my picks in a separate thread and I see no reason to change them.
NajdorfDefense is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:55 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive