We're bringing back the classic NFL proposition wager this season. It's a bet that seems so easy to win and yet always finds a way to lose. The rules are simple. Pick 6 NFL teams NOT to make the playoffs this year. If one team makes it, you lose. It pays even money.

Who ya got?

My picks.

Jets
Lions
Texans
Bengals
Raiders
Jaguars

Too easy.

It's a fun exercise for Crowdsource Syndicate members to describe how they would go about picking their optimal set of teams.

I also came up with the same 6 as (currently) the most likely to not make the playoffs:

Texans
Lions
Bengals
Jets
Jaguars
Raiders

However, for the probability that neither of those 6 make it I have +305 (24.7%) as the fair line, not +100. Any other teams and the EV just gets worse...

Thanks TomG,
threads/puzzles like these are fun, much appreciated.

Being Euro I follow NFL just casually and I am not particularly good at handicapping.

My list is:
Carolina Panthers
Las Vegas Raiders
Cincinnati Bengals
Detroit Lions
New York Jets
Houston Texans

So, compared to the above lists only Jaguars are switched out for Panthers.

How I picked the teams:
- looked up the rules for which teams make the playoffs, which are: all division winners + top 3 of the rest of each conference.
- looked into special rules. A factor could be 'Covid forfeited games'. However I discarded the idea of many games forfeited because of this rule as I found little or no indication that this is going to happen.
- mapped all NFL teams with: conference, division, NBC Power Rankings, Pinnacle/Betonline odds to win division

Texans Jets Lions Bengals Raiders were clear bottom 5 of the list for odds to win division, and all in the bottom of Power Rankings: 25 (Raiders) 28 30 31 32

- For the 6th candidate I looked at the regular season schedule for Jaguars (PR 29, odds +600 ) Panthers (26 , +1211) and Eagles (27, +625)

I don't fancy Jaguars much because they are in the same division as one of the other candidates: Texans .

I picked Panthers over Jaguars because they are the only candidate from their division, and also because there is now more balance between AFC-NFC.

I picked Panthers over Eagles because of longer odds to win their division and because the schedule looked a tad easier, measured by average PR of opponents.

The fact that 14/32 teams make the playoffs now (as of last season) instead of 12/32 is pretty significant. I assume picking five teams to not make the playoffs at even money would still be -EV, but I don't have a model for this.

I would switch Falcons or Panthers for Raiders simply because having five teams from one conference is too many imo.

My approach: Use binomial theorem and RSW market line to back into the market implied average win percentage for the season. Then create a simulator that runs a 17 game season and assigns playoff teams based on 2021-22 season NFL playoff rules. What do you think?

Could also use this approach to create implied individual game lines for books that put up forward looking "game of the year" lines.

Tried not to read the other responses as I come up with my list:

New York Jets
Houston Texans
Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions
Jacksonville Jaguars
Chicago Bears

Does anyone actually want to bet these? If so, post your teams and I'll make a market on Fairlay.

I think you guys are right and we would need to change this wager to picking four teams to not make the playoffs to actually get this close to being a fair wager. We've come a long way as a forum when this proposition was first posted and no one bothered to analyze the wager and we all just thought it was easy. Similar to the birthday problem.

This thread prompted me to take my annual action on ppl taking 7 teams to miss the playoffs against me at even money, even after they added additional playoff spots last year lol

I also tried not looking at the list above!

Here's my pick:
Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers
Denver Broncos
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals
Las Vegas Raiders

I don't think it's that bad.

Current fair odds:

Texans -1400
Lions -1075
Jets -675
Bengals -625
Raiders -425
Jaguars -350

(1400/1500)*(1075/1175)*(675/775)*(625/725)*(425/525)*(350/450)=.4037 (40.4%) = +148

It's a terrible wager if the fair odds are correct, but not as bad as 25%. A fairer wager would be 5 teams at even odds (-108 leaving out Jax).

However, these are not independent events. So the calculations are only a guide. The Raiders play the NFC East, and has already beaten Jacksonville. They also play Chicago, Denver, Miami, Cincy and Indy. They play Denver twice. Should they really be -425? They could win ten games and back into the playoffs. The Bengals probably are better than -625. I suspect the fair price for those six teams should probably be closer to +250 or even higher.

In any event, picking six teams not to make the playoffs this year is clearly a sucker bet at even money. Picking five teams is probably -ev, but closer.

Fair enough.

It was interesting to see that you concluded the fair odds for those 6 should probably be +250. When converted to a probability, 100/350=28.6%, it really isn't that far off from the 25% number I came up with almost 3 weeks ago.

Naturally, as more games are played we could continue to tighten those numbers up through further speculation. Or, it would also be neat if someone was willing to post "current fair odds" once a week taken as consensus number from some pre-determined bookies. Then we could calculate a Brier Score and see who actually was more "probabilistically" accurate: the 2+2 forum, or the bookies...

The +250 estimate was assuming the "fair odds" from the sports book are at least partially wrong. If you use their numbers, then the price is +148. Also, the prices I saw were different after the first week, so those odds were before the season started, even though they were still on the site afterwards (I got them from Vegas Insider, and the current odds were listed below). The odds would change as the season progresses, but the ability to bet at even money will evaporate as it becomes obvious which teams have no chance.

Giants
Lions
Jax
Houston
Cinci
Jets

were my picks in a separate thread and I see no reason to change them.

For one thing, I wouldn't pick 5 AFC teams and one NFC team. Clearly sub-optimal.

6 Teams not to make the playoffs.

Jets ✓
Lions ✓
Texans ✓
Bengals ✗
Raiders ✗
Jaguars ✓

As usual, Jigga Naj was right. I pick 5 AFC teams and then cry when two of them sneak into the playoffs. I definitely deserve the L on this one. Until next year.

Not only was this the only correct guess, each team was well below .500. And 4 of the 6 are in the bottom 5 worst ITL.

Bonus points for each team worst in their division, or 3rd/4th when from same division (CHI/DET, HOU/JAC).

I clearly fumbled the ball as well. Will remember Naj's advice for next time.

Had 7 people each take 7 teams against me at even money.

Scooped them all with 6 on the Bengals and the one guy who didn't take them on the Eagles.

3 of the Bengals guys also took the Eagles, and 2 of them took the Raiders with one guy on all 3 lol.

Forgot about this. Wow. Wish I had placed a wager on it. Didn't put a ton of thought into it either.

Bungals got me also. That's what I get for not taking ATL with a 3/3 distribution.