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2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread 2024 US Presidential Election Betting Thread

06-09-2024 , 01:09 AM
We live in a post fact world, there is a legitimate chance that Trump sold out American spies to Putin and at the very least he's committed a ton of tries but none of it matters anymore with the level of partisanship. And yeah, Biden dying at 1.5% seems within the range of reasonable, but it's worth noting he has access to far better healthcare than the average American and while he's very old, he's in very good health for his age - Trump's 4 years younger, but is overweight, they probably have about an equal probability of dying but it's obviously low and the market is idiotic to think there's anything close to a double digit chance that either candidate drops out voluntarily.

There is no chance Biden drops out barring a terminal diagnosis he can't keep secret, which is unlikely. None.

His son liking drugs and guns and hookers etc is a political liability but there is absolutely nothing there in terms of corruption that Jared didn't do with the Saudis peddling influence etc there is absolutely no chance Joe drops out because of anything Hunter did or didn't do. Hunter isn't the one on the ballot.

Honestly, it's just this cycle's conspiracy theory for cookers, the idiots who think they're 'in the know' because of their telegram Russian propaganda channel they get their news from. Last time it was 'Hillary is secretly gonna replace Biden as the nominee/Biden will resign and be replaced by Hillary/Kamala/etc after the election'

They will have a new conspiracy every election and they will always be wrong.

Michelle Obama was never going to run without a full cycle to prepare, she probably won't ever run but if she does it will be from the start of the political cycle and with the full backing of both Obama and Biden's political machines. Even if Biden dies she's not going to be parachuted in as the nominee and anyone who thinks she is, lol you're an idiot.
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06-10-2024 , 01:20 AM
I think the chances of biden dropping out are bigger than you think.



Bet365 offering an arb opportunity for both candidate is kinda telling.
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06-10-2024 , 08:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
We live in a post fact world, there is a legitimate chance that Trump sold out American spies to Putin and at the very least he's committed a ton of tries but none of it matters anymore with the level of partisanship. And yeah, Biden dying at 1.5% seems within the range of reasonable, but it's worth noting he has access to far better healthcare than the average American and while he's very old, he's in very good health for his age - Trump's 4 years younger, but is overweight, they probably have about an equal probability of dying but it's obviously low and the market is idiotic to think there's anything close to a double digit chance that either candidate drops out voluntarily.

There is no chance Biden drops out barring a terminal diagnosis he can't keep secret, which is unlikely. None.

His son liking drugs and guns and hookers etc is a political liability but there is absolutely nothing there in terms of corruption that Jared didn't do with the Saudis peddling influence etc there is absolutely no chance Joe drops out because of anything Hunter did or didn't do. Hunter isn't the one on the ballot.

Honestly, it's just this cycle's conspiracy theory for cookers, the idiots who think they're 'in the know' because of their telegram Russian propaganda channel they get their news from. Last time it was 'Hillary is secretly gonna replace Biden as the nominee/Biden will resign and be replaced by Hillary/Kamala/etc after the election'

They will have a new conspiracy every election and they will always be wrong.

Michelle Obama was never going to run without a full cycle to prepare, she probably won't ever run but if she does it will be from the start of the political cycle and with the full backing of both Obama and Biden's political machines. Even if Biden dies she's not going to be parachuted in as the nominee and anyone who thinks she is, lol you're an idiot.

Mostly agree that he isn't dropping out....One thing you hear a lot of re both Biden/Trump is that their party could "Nominate anyone normal and win", there is no candidate that once they're put through the meat grinder and has to take positions on every single subject, has a record that people can pick apart and has to do a million interviews that just is some generic candidate and "normal" Whether it is DeSantis, Newsom or Harris. You're always going to have negatives.

However, devils advocate...What if Biden just straight gets torched and bombs the 6/27 debate? Putting the debate on 6/27 is pretty abnormal and perhaps Democrats do want to see how Biden performs in that setting and if it is just awful then maybe a month later you make the switch? That's only other way I could see him being replaced. Once he gets passed that date, then yeah it is just a illness thing. Not like there is some perfect replacement waiting in the wings.

Last edited by Onlydo2days; 06-10-2024 at 08:55 AM.
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06-10-2024 , 07:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
The chances of Biden dropping out are way way lower than everyone thinks they are. It's probably like 1 percent and most of the time he isn't the nominee is because he dies or gets a terminal diagnosis and both are quite unlikely despite his age. Biden is probably 1% or so to die, 1% or so to get a terminal diagnosis and drop out and 98% to be the nominee because those are the only two ways he won't be.
bombing this month's debate hard has to represent the biggest risk. certainly greater than death or terminal diagnosis, the latter of which (depending on diagnosis) i'm not sure they'd even disclose if they could plausibly win the election before it manifests. 2% total probably too low, 23% probably too high... notably the top holders of Yes (biden drops out) are fish and top holders of No are sharps. agree with od2d that 5-10% seems reasonable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by somigosaden
I think why the odds of him dropping out skyrocketed is the Hunter Biden trial that started a few days ago.
seemed to coincide with the WSJ article as well
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06-11-2024 , 04:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
We live in a post fact world, there is a legitimate chance that Trump sold out American spies to Putin and at the very least he's committed a ton of tries.
What is the strongest evidence of this?
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06-11-2024 , 04:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
We live in a post fact world.
We don't though, that's the thing. To hold this view is to wave the white flag to finding truth. Objective truth still does exist, to the extent it has ever existed.
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06-11-2024 , 04:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CodythePATRIOT
What is the strongest evidence of this?
7/31/2019 Trump meets w/ Putin

8/3/2019, just 3 days later, Trump requests a list of US spies.

By 2021 the CIA reports an unusually high number of their agents are being captured and/or murdered. An FBI search at Mar A Lago finds more documents
w/ lists of our spies on them that Trump took with him.

Again this isn't conclusive but Trump had a habit of being secretive about his private meetings with Putin and obviously there are concerns he was compromised by Russia pre-Presidency, etc and his foreign policy goals largely happen to align with theirs, Putin speaks highly of him and vice versa, etc

None of this is conclusive, hence, it is possible, i'm not saying it definitely happened or anything. Yes, it's a conspiracy theory but so is the idea that anyone had Jeffrey Epstein killed, yet most of us assume that did in fact occur even though suicide is also plausible for a dude facing a life sentence

Anyway. I'm not even saying I believe it's necessarily true, but it is an interesting 'coincidence' as far as conspiracy theories go.

With regards to the post fact world thing - a large percentage of Republican voters believe that Donald Trump won the Presidential election in 2020, a not insignificant portion of Republican voters think that Hillary Clinton ran a child sex trafficking ring out of a pizza shop basement and a portion of the Democratic base thinks the 2016 election was stolen, etc - by all means facts matter, but as far as elections go, do they? Trump lies about his record literally all the time even about trivial **** that he is on record as saying, for example a couple weeks ago he claimed he never said 'lock her up' about Hillary Clinton when he was literally saying it at rallies for an entire year, which we all saw, on video. His base does not require what he says to be based in fact, they just care that he makes them feel good, 'pwns the libtards' and has generally conservative policies.

Obviously on the left there is a ton of it too but i'm just using Trump as the most egregious example of the truth not mattering anymore in American politics to most partisan voters. The average person in a 2p2 politics thread is probably going to be more politically engaged than the average voter and therefore while we are all susceptible to the media we consume, the average person here's going to have a greater grasp on reality than the public as a whole. I don't dispute that objective truth exists, but I do think that the majority of voters right or left do not have an accurate understanding of the statements made, policy achievements as President or current policy positions of either major candidate. This is especially true on the American political right, but also true on the American political left and even with centrists.

If anyone wants to bet on Biden dropping out voluntarily for any reason (including health) at market price i'm happy to take the bet, same for anyone who wants Biden isn't the nominee for any reason including death at market price (obv the prices i'd take differ slightly for the two options). Happy to take either Ds nominate Biden at Convention vs field OR Biden is D presidential nominee on election day vs field at market price if anyone wants the other side, with us settling on the relevant day etc

Anyway it is utter madness that Biden to win the election is +182 but Dems to win the election is +126 right now, there is absolutely no way that Biden drops out or dies anywhere near that often. The Trump gap from -118 to R -114 is a lot closer to accurate in that it basically is only factoring in that he dies at his age, but isn't accounting for anything else that could happen if anything it's slightly too small, that said Trump will be the R nominee 99% of the time or whatever.

Also it's ****ing hilarious that the market still thinks RFK is 2% to win and has had him as high as 4%+ at various points this cycle when he has the exact same chance of winning the Presidential election as I do this cycle, which is zero. The idea that he has a base beyond 'low information voters who hate both Biden and Trump' and 'anti-vaxxers who are also anti-trump' is ridiculous.

Michelle Obama being 3% to WIN the election too is hilarious, assuming she's a flip in the general that implies that she is 6% to be the D nominee which would not only require Biden to drop out or die, but would require the D base to parachute her in over the VP or an actual politician like Newsom etc the actual number is substantially below 1% and Obama backers hate money just as much as the Hillary to be D nom backers did last cycle.

Anyway, Biden is still slightly too long and Trump slightly too short but not getting involved yet, unless anyone wants to burn money on any 'not gonna win' candidate or bet that Biden won't be the nominee against my yes he will be the nominee

Last edited by SwoopAE; 06-11-2024 at 05:05 AM.
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06-11-2024 , 11:20 AM
Our boy Nate Silver's 538 predictions are now live.

While prediction markets have Republicans/Trump favored right now, 538 thinks they have the wrong guy favored. 538 currently has Biden as the slight favorite based upon "fundamentals."

At the same time, Nate Silver is openly floating the idea that Biden should drop out of the race as his approval rating just hit an all-time low.

🤷
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06-11-2024 , 02:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG
Our boy Nate Silver's 538 predictions are now live.

While prediction markets have Republicans/Trump favored right now, 538 thinks they have the wrong guy favored. 538 currently has Biden as the slight favorite based upon "fundamentals."

At the same time, Nate Silver is openly floating the idea that Biden should drop out of the race as his approval rating just hit an all-time low.

🤷
As I recall, there are a lot of factors that would make whoever was incumbent the favorite at this time. Fundamentals include:

1. Incumbency
2. The Economy
3. The Stock Market


1 is an immutable fact; Biden is the incumbent, and in general incumbents win more than they lose.
2 is more debatable. Right leaning media will hammer on inflation, without talking about job growth and wage growth, etc.
3 the market has done quite well since Biden was elected up about 52% using the S&P
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06-11-2024 , 05:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
Anyway it is utter madness that Biden to win the election is +182 but Dems to win the election is +126 right now, there is absolutely no way that Biden drops out or dies anywhere near that often.
books are pricing a 5-8% gap, don't know how that can be construed as madness when your assessment of death or terminal diagnosis is 2%. other incidents (worsening approval rating or deficits in swing state polls, irredeemable performance at 6/27 debate) can make up the remaining probability. swing state polling in particular has to be worrying given trump outperformed polls in last two elections.

think the debate will be the litmus test and wonder if his team pushed it up before the dnc partly for that reason. if he performs half as well as he did in SOTU his dropout odds should crater.

Quote:
1 is an immutable fact; Biden is the incumbent, and in general incumbents win more than they lose.
2 is more debatable. Right leaning media will hammer on inflation, without talking about job growth and wage growth, etc.
3 the market has done quite well since Biden was elected up about 52% using the S&P
biden has the lowest approval rating in recorded history for an incumbent president. not sure the advantage holds when in a subclass of low-rated incumbents like ford, carter, trump.

economy is interesting. headline numbers and stock market have been great, perception polls are bad.
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06-12-2024 , 04:28 AM
Expectations are so low on Biden in the debate that anything other than him struggling to form a sentence will be seen as refuting the senile old man narrative

Trump setting expectations that Biden is a doddering old fool means it's very hard to comprehensively win a debate where Biden only needs to be coherent to beat expectations and Trump is obviously gaffe prone too at this point. Regardless of who wins the debate the only people it matters for at all are legitimately undecided independents and maybe people on the moderate right or far left who are considering not voting at all due to disliking both candidates.

There is no way Biden is dropping out as a result of his debate performance even if conventional wisdom is he loses the debate. None. If he was going to drop out it would be before the debate but he's not so whatever

If the election is about Biden only he can very much lose but the election will be about Trump every bit as much as it is about Biden and Trump is also very unpopular with independents and the opposing base. Neither side has a win locked up but acting like the election is unwinnable for Biden when he has already beaten his opponent in one election and four more years of old people have died and four more years of young people have turned 18 is crazy

It's too soon to know who will win but fundamentally speaking I think Biden is a small fav too because Trump is a turnout machine for the opposing base and does not perform well with independents. It's easy to forget he lost the popular vote to Hillary, arguably the worst Democratic candidate at least since 2004 if not then since 1988 and he barely won the electoral college. At the end of the day Biden is a better candidate than Hillary because he is more likeable of the two. Even the far right hate Hillary more than they hate Biden and she was never even President.

Anyway we don't know who is going to win this far out but anyone who is betting on Biden not being the nominee at this point is burning money and mark my words Biden will trade lower than his current price at some point so laying him now is stupid even if you think he will lose.

Last edited by SwoopAE; 06-12-2024 at 04:36 AM.
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06-12-2024 , 06:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE

Also it's ****ing hilarious that the market still thinks RFK is 2% to win and has had him as high as 4%+ at various points this cycle when he has the exact same chance of winning the Presidential election as I do this cycle, which is zero. The idea that he has a base beyond 'low information voters who hate both Biden and Trump' and 'anti-vaxxers who are also anti-trump' is ridiculous.

Michelle Obama being 3% to WIN the election too is hilarious, assuming she's a flip in the general that implies that she is 6% to be the D nominee which would not only require Biden to drop out or die, but would require the D base to parachute her in over the VP or an actual politician like Newsom etc the actual number is substantially below 1% and Obama backers hate money just as much as the Hillary to be D nom backers did last cycle.
These markets just seem unable to price in 0% events, always someone willing to bet 3 wins 97

Not sure how to really make $ on it given current risk free time value of $ though
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06-12-2024 , 11:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
These markets just seem unable to price in 0% events, always someone willing to bet 3 wins 97

Not sure how to really make $ on it given current risk free time value of $ though
You answered your own question. Even if the chance is zero, you gain nothing by trying to make 3% when you can do so risk free.
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06-12-2024 , 01:43 PM
The time value of money thing doesn't entirely explain it. For example the Betfair market on a Scottish independence referendum this year (which is definitely not going to happen) has a spread of 1.01-1.02 for No referendum this year, and people are tying up money on that for longer than they would be on "Gender of US Presidential Election Winner" 1.06-1.08 for Male

I think a large part of it is how the betting markets work.

It's not the case that the money that thinks -1400 is a good price to bet on a male president is balanced by the money from people who think +1400 is a good price for a female president.

For those to be the market odds, there needs to be 14 times as much money that thinks even -1400 is good odds for male as thinks that +1400 is good odds for a female president. So the market prices in these types of markets then aren't the average or some kind of "middle tipping point" of market sentiment, they reflect roughly where the 7th most extreme percentile is, just as the market on RFK Jr reflects where the 2nd most extreme percentile is in that market.
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06-12-2024 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
We live in a post fact world, there is a legitimate chance that Trump sold out American spies to Putin and at the very least he's committed a ton of tries but none of it matters anymore with the level of partisanship. And yeah, Biden dying at 1.5% seems within the range of reasonable, but it's worth noting he has access to far better healthcare than the average American and while he's very old, he's in very good health for his age - Trump's 4 years younger, but is overweight, they probably have about an equal probability of dying but it's obviously low and the market is idiotic to think there's anything close to a double digit chance that either candidate drops out voluntarily.

There is no chance Biden drops out barring a terminal diagnosis he can't keep secret, which is unlikely. None.

His son liking drugs and guns and hookers etc is a political liability but there is absolutely nothing there in terms of corruption that Jared didn't do with the Saudis peddling influence etc there is absolutely no chance Joe drops out because of anything Hunter did or didn't do. Hunter isn't the one on the ballot.

Honestly, it's just this cycle's conspiracy theory for cookers, the idiots who think they're 'in the know' because of their telegram Russian propaganda channel they get their news from. Last time it was 'Hillary is secretly gonna replace Biden as the nominee/Biden will resign and be replaced by Hillary/Kamala/etc after the election'

They will have a new conspiracy every election and they will always be wrong.

Michelle Obama was never going to run without a full cycle to prepare, she probably won't ever run but if she does it will be from the start of the political cycle and with the full backing of both Obama and Biden's political machines. Even if Biden dies she's not going to be parachuted in as the nominee and anyone who thinks she is, lol you're an idiot.

This really is a ridiculous post, swoop. We dont live in a 'post-fact world'. If anything, I see people on the left believing in and parroting more clearly false things than the right. The difference is theyve captured the entire media so you guys never even hear the corrections if they come at all. The Hunter Biden laptop saga is absurd and if it were Trump in power and Trump JR doing what Hunter did, you guys would be apoplectic. The entire establishment coming out and saying "it was russian propaganda" right before the election with zero proof. 51 intelligence officers sign that goofy letter. And then the FBI brings the laptop into evidence a few years later!! Confirming it was real the whole time. And theres no consequences. The Biden family is what everyone THOUGHT the Trump family is. Theres something like 75 LLC's and 50 different bank accounts registered to the biden family. Has anyone even asked what their business is?? What do they sell? Where are their tax returns and invoices? Again, if it was the trump family, Im pretty sure people in the media would look into it. Bidens son openly smoked crack, had an illegal gun and was making millions of dollars from sitting on the board of some sketchy oil company in Ukraine. What is value to the board was is beyond me, except access to Joe Biden. Like, how is that not bigger news? How can any objective person not conclude that the Bidens are corrupt? And this is just what we know! Imagine what we dont!

People on the left who get all their news from CNN and twitter have got to be the single most misinformed voting block in this country. You guys all believe the same exact things on every single issue. You all have this bizarre, visceral hatred of trump which is so beyond fake and manufactured. The only president in the last I dont know how many years to have ZERO wars on his watch.

Im not saying I know everything or anything close. Or 'my side is better than your side'. But the left always comes with this 'post fact world' bullshit, like they know something everyone else doesnt. When in fact its usually the exact opposite. You guys talk about defunding the police and bail reform like its the most important thing in the world and in the same sentence you support pressing felony charges on teenagers for leaving skid marks on a rainbow crosswalk.

It stinks all around and Im not even a huge trump guy, although the left seems intent on galvanizing support for him. And I think republicans are largely cowards. But I just cannot stand the condescending 'everyone else is dumb' stance of a lot of liberals who seem to live entirely online.
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06-12-2024 , 07:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
Expectations are so low on Biden in the debate that anything other than him struggling to form a sentence will be seen as refuting the senile old man narrative

Trump setting expectations that Biden is a doddering old fool means it's very hard to comprehensively win a debate where Biden only needs to be coherent to beat expectations and Trump is obviously gaffe prone too at this point. Regardless of who wins the debate the only people it matters for at all are legitimately undecided independents and maybe people on the moderate right or far left who are considering not voting at all due to disliking both candidates.

There is no way Biden is dropping out as a result of his debate performance even if conventional wisdom is he loses the debate. None. If he was going to drop out it would be before the debate but he's not so whatever
agreed... to be clear i'm not saying biden has to win the debate to stay viable, only that he needs to maintain coherence and not have prolonged spaceman moments or walk off stage confused in the middle of the debate where the bottom drops out

Quote:
Originally Posted by LektorAJ
The time value of money thing doesn't entirely explain it. For example the Betfair market on a Scottish independence referendum this year (which is definitely not going to happen) has a spread of 1.01-1.02 for No referendum this year
fascinating. wonder who is betting no and why? does betfair have favorable deposit clearance bonus policies (i.e. based on risked amount) or rebates at a certain volume threshold?

Quote:
It's not the case that the money that thinks -1400 is a good price to bet on a male president is balanced by the money from people who think +1400 is a good price for a female president.

For those to be the market odds, there needs to be 14 times as much money that thinks even -1400 is good odds for male as thinks that +1400 is good odds for a female president. So the market prices in these types of markets then aren't the average or some kind of "middle tipping point" of market sentiment, they reflect roughly where the 7th most extreme percentile is, just as the market on RFK Jr reflects where the 2nd most extreme percentile is in that market.
good point. though absent opportunity costs and a 4% risk free rate there'd be plenty more money pouring in to match punters and push lines to truer odds
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